Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Evaluating The Effect Of Commodity Donation Programs Using The Truncated Normal Distribution, J. William Levedahl

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

The magnitude of both the displacement of commercial sales and the increase in consumption associated with a commodity distribution program are characterized using the truncated normal distribution. This method is easier to implement and requires less data than previous methods. It is applied to data from the 1986 Survey of TEFAP Recipients and is quite accurate.

Forecasting Corn Ear Weight Using Surface Area And Volume Measurements: A Preliminary Report, Fatu Bigsby

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Data from the Corn Ear Weight Study were used to analyze the forecast performance of models estimated using surface area and volune measurements to predict corn ear weight. Two models based on research measurements were compared to models estimated using the operational procedures from the Corn Objective Yield Survey. Research and operational models were estimated both within and across years using data from the 1986 and 1987 Michigan Corn Ear Weight Study. Results show that research models based on surface area and volune measurements have mean square errors that are 32 to 52 percent lower than models estimated using the …

Forecasting Corn Ear Weights From Daily Weather Data, Fred B. Warren

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Statistical models were developed to predict the State average grain weight per ear using daily temperature and precipitation data, recorded from May 1 through late July. The required daily weather data was successfully obtained in an operational test of these models for ten major corn producing States in 1988. Relative forecast errors of ear weight averaged almost one-third smaller than those from a regular survey. Additional refinements of the models to make them more responsive to abnormally early adverse weather, as in 1988, are underway.

Kansas Wheat Objective Yield Survey, Eldon J. Thiessen

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

In response to farmers, millers, and government needs, the USDA began research on objective measurements of wheat yields in 1938. USDA's current objective yield program providing monthly pre-harvest forecasts of wheat production beginning on May 1 now includes 18 states and accounted for 87 percent of the U.S. wheat production in 1988 .

The Wheat Objective Yield Survey is a systematic subsample of the March Agricultural Survey conducted by Kansas Agricultural Statistics as part of the Quarterly Agricultural Survey program of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The fields and sample plots within the fields are selected following very carefully …

Model Building To Measure Impact Of Weather On Crop Yields, Arlin M. Feyerherm, Gary M. Paulsen

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

The object of this research was to identify and evaluate alternatives when building mathematical models to measure the impact of weather on crop yields. Alternatives exist relative to selection of: (1) observational units with attention to size and coverage (areal and temporal), (2) observational periods for defining weather variables, and (3) mathematical forms and types of weather variables to measure impacts of moisture and temperature. The study involved an analysis of four weather-yield functions for winter wheat. The functions represented combinations of levels of two factors: (1) size and coverage of the observational units (plot yields from a multi-state area …

Teaching Statistical Methods To Graduate Students In Colleges Of Agriculture, D. F. Cox

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

One method of judging the effectiveness of the teaching of statistical methods is to rate the quality of their use in the research journals of the agricultural sciences. A conclusion that improvement is possible is easily supported by such a review. Basic concepts such as the meaning of replication, the definition of an experimental unit and the nature of experimental error are misunderstood, and this leads to faulty analyses and incorrect conclusions. Changes in teaching that would improve the product are not specified easily because research on the topic is difficult. Perhaps more emphasis on the basic concepts of experimental …

Evaluation Of Presentation Graphics For The Agricultural Sciences, Kathy Shelley

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Professional-looking text and graphic slides enable an audience to comprehend the main ideas of a presentation more quickly. With the advent of easy-to-use graphic software packages and the affordability of personal computer hardware to run this software, researchers may now prepare their own slides or transparencies. This paper describes basic graphic software design and offers criteria for selection of an appropriate software package for scientific research presentations. Comparisons between two prototype graphics packages, Harvard Graphics and SAS/Graph, are made on the basis of the following selection criteria: (1) basic software design, (2) available hardware, (3) output device drivers, (4) available …

The 2-Sprt As An Alternative To Wald's Sprt When Testing Hypotheses Concerning Insect Populations, Linda J. Young, Jerry H. Young

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Exact and Wald's approximations for the operating characteristic and average sample number functions are compared for a sequential probability ratio (SPRT) test commonly used in cotton integrated pest management (IPM) programs in southwestern Oklahoma. The 95th percentile of the sample size is also given. For the same set of hypotheses and stated error probabilities, the exact operating characteristic and average sample number functions and the 95th percentile of sample size are compared for the SPRT and 2-SPRT.

Multiple Regression Analysis Of Soil Properties On Eroded And Native Deep Loess Missouri Soils, S. J. Indorante, J. M. Maatta, R. D. Hammer, J. R. Brown

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Researchers have described the difficulty of studying the effects of cultivation on soil properties unless native (uncultivated) areas can be used as a baseline for comparison. Even when suitable areas are located the problems of quantifying and comparing the horizontal and vertical distributions of soil properties remain. Areal distributions of soil surface, subsurface, and upper subsoil properties were compared in cultivated and forested deep loess soils on similar geomorphic surfaces and hillslope positions in two counties adjacent to the Missouri River. A 3-dimensional grid was used to sample selected soils from the summit to the lower backs lope on 3 …

Evaluation Of The Three Plantain (Musa Aab) Cultivars For Agronomic Characteristics, Ahmad R. Rafie, Carlos Medina

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Plantains (Musa AAB) are widely used as a source of carbohydrate in Latin America and Africa. The most commonly grown plantain cultivar, "Horn plantain" is tall which makes it susceptible to losses by wind. Recently, two dwarf mutants of "Horn plantain" were selected. A randomized complete block design experiment with four replications was conducted to compare the agronomic characteristics of the dwarf mutants with those of the traditional cultivar. The data was analyzed as if the experiment was strip-plot design with cultivar as the horizontal factor and harvest as the vertical factor. "Analysis of variance" and "Least significant difference" test …

Comparison Of Hop Downy Mildew Epidemics Using Spatial Analysis, J. Richard Alldredge, Dennis A. Johnson, Rochelle Allwine

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Methods of spatial analysis including distribution fitting, variance-to-mean ratios, Morisita's index, doublet and runs analyses, Greig-Smith analysis and variography were used to investigate the spatial pattern of hop downy mildew. Use of these methods allowed examination of the spatial structure of hop downy mildew at three spatial scales: within hop hills, between nearby hop hills, and for hop hills more separated in space. The results obtained were in general agreement for methods of analysis which assessed spatial structure at the same spatial scale with the exception of Morisita's index of clumping which did not identify clumps of diseased hills of …

The Use Of Near Infrared Reflectance For Evaluating Cotton Fineness And Maturity, Vicki A. Lancaster, Steven M. Buco, Joseph G. Montalvo Jr.

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has proposed to develop Ii new high speed, high volume technique to assess cotton quality. This goal has led us to investigate the feasibility of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy as a technique for evaluating cotton fiber perimeter size and wall thickness, two of the physical characteristics used in the evaluation of cotton fineness and maturity.

In order to isolate the effects of perimeter size and wall thickness, nineteen cotton samples were selected on the basis of their having a nonsignificant correlation between these 2 measurements. The reflectance spectra from 1100 to 2500 nanometers was recorded …

Statistical Design And Analysis Of Dairy Nutrition Experiments To Improve Detection Of Milk Response Differences, Stephen R. Lowry

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

The objective of many dairy nutrition experiments is to determine the effect of certain dietary treatments on milk production and quality responses. However, milk responses are quite variable and cows (experimental units) are expensive and have substantial maintenance costs. This manuscript reviews principles for planning to obtain good data relevant to the hypothesis, experimental design to control inherent variation, and interpreted analyses to facilitate understanding of dairy relationships. Emphasis is placed on assurance that milk response differences due to dietary treatments will have a high probability of being detected as significant. Guidelines addressing these principles along with suggested computer programs …

Statistical Models For Analysis Of Dose-Response Data, Karan P. Singh

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

In this paper we propose three families of functional models for analysis of dose-response data. The first family is for modeling data which have a steep sloping line for an ascending portion of the response curve and a plateau representing maximum response or a sloping line representing little response at higher application levels. The second family is for modeling data which represent a steep sloping line on the ascending portion of the response curve and a declining curvature for declining response at higher application levels. The third family is for fitting data which show an initial plateau followed by increased …

Analysis Of A Two Lactation Target Animal Safety Study Of Somidobove Sustained Release Injection In Multiparous Dairy Cows, L. V. Tonkinson, R. P. Basson, R. K. Mcguffey, A. Deldar, L. Fisher

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

An overview is given of the primary basis for the scientific inference that somidobove sustained release injection is safe for multiparous dairy cows. The process of analysis and interpretation of the voluminous data collected from a target animal safety study which started with 28 cows and lasted two lactations is described. This was a repeated measures study with most of 60 variables being measured or summarized every 28 days resulting in approximately 1500 measurements per cow. The statistical analysis was designed to screen the variables for biological change caused by treatment and consisted of a univariate analysis of variance for …

Statistical Issues In Studies Of Thermoregulation In Farm Animals, A. M. Parkhurst, G. L. Hahn

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Patterns of tympanic temperature response were identified in ad-lib-fed cattle exposed to constant or cyclic (±7 C) conditions at two levels of air temperature: 10 C and 28 C. Use of time series analysis following the DDS approach of Pandit and Wu indicate the thermoregulatory control dynamics for steers at 28±7 C were markedly different from those at the other conditions. Preliminary evaluations using the ideas of chaos and non-linear dynamics show promise of further characterization of stress responses in farm animals.

Nonlinear Modeling Of Ph Decline In Beef Carcasses, James R. Schwenke, Curtis L. Kastner

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

Electrical stimulation speeds the rate of pH decline in beef muscle. A study was conducted to evaluate an electrical stimulation (ES) method for beef sides and its effect on pH decline compared to non-stimulated control counterparts using nonlinear modeling. The pH of each carcass in the study was measured at selected times over a 24-hour time period postmortem. A statistical methodology is described for comparing two treatments based on the mean pH decline over time. The repeated measures structure of the data is incorporated into the statistical procedure. A nonlinear exponential decay model is used to characterize the mean pH …

Recent Developments In Variance Component Estimation, R. R. Hocking

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

The purpose of this paper is to introduce some recent developments in variance component estimation with emphasis on techniques which provide diagnostic information on the data and the model assumptions. This paper concentrates on the balanced data situation, but suggests a natural extension to the case of unbalanced data. The basic ideas are illustrated by several numerical examples.

Editor's Preface, Table Of Contents, And List Of Attendees, George A. Milliken, James R. Schwenke

Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture

These proceedings contain papers presented at the first annual Kansas State University Conference on Applied Statistics in Agriculture, held in Manhattan, Kansas, April 30 through May 2, 1989.

Putting A Top Quality Forage Program Together On Your Farm, Richard Brown Phillips

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

You know most of us here, and I am including myself, really don't have a super talent for predicting the future with a great deal of consistency, however, our interest doesn't have to be in predicting, but rather, just primarily in considering potentials and opportunities in the future. What do you say, let's take a little time to look at some of the opportunities in the forage industry. The nation's No. 1 cash crop.

Sampling And Testing For Quality, Buddy Sims

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

The Kentucky Department of Agriculture is preparing to implement a unique and far-reaching program to provide forage producers with a detailed analysis of the quality of hay.

This program was mandated by the Kentucky legislature in 1988 as a means to enhance the marketing of Kentucky hay. A statewide hay testing and marketing program was recommended by a special legislative task force report issued in 1987 and has the endorsement of a number of agricultural organizations, including the University of Kentucky College of Agriculture and Kentucky Farm Bureau.

Marketing Kentucky Hay — A Reality, J. Kenneth Evans

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

As I write this in early December, Kentucky does not yet have a system for marketing hay. The above title reflects an attitude which positively expects a marketing system to be in place by the 1989 season. Many details of such a system have been discussed, some decisions have already been made and more will be made by the time you read this. Literally hundreds of decisions need to be made before hay is marketed in 1989. since these decisions will be made by a group of people (a producer Board of Directors and the KY Department of Agriculture personnel) …

Equipment And Chemical Advances In Harvesting And Storing Quality Hay, Michael Collins

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

In some areas of the country, many producers have gone to silage or haylage for storage of a portion of their forage. However, hay remains the most popular storage method for forage. Hay stores well for long periods and is better suited to cash sale and transportation over substantial distances than silage. Mechanical conditioning, which gained acceptance during the 1950's is probably still the greatest single change in hay harvesting and storage technology during this century. However, a number of other noteworthy changes and innovations have occurred in recent years which have helped to reduce the extent of losses during …

Alfalfa Hay: Quality Makes The Difference, Garry D. Lacefield

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

Alfalfa "Queen of the Forage Crops" is one of t.he most important forage legumes grown in the U.S. It can be grown over a wide range of soil and climatic conditions, it has the highest yield potential and the highest feeding values of all adapted perennial forage legumes. Alfalfa is a versatile crop which can be used for pasture, hay, silage, green-chop, soil improvements and human consumption (sprouts, etc.).

Foreword [1989], Garry D. Lacefield

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

This is the front matter of the proceedings.

Evaluating Hay Quality, William C. Templeton Jr.

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

One of the frustrations to nutritionists interested in the feeding value of roughage has been that with all their book knowledge and technical aids no dependable scheme they could devise would consistently rank forages in feeding value, while the dumb ruminant animal could unerringly detect differences in their nutritive values.
-E. W. Crampton, 1965

Alfalfa Yield, Quality And Persistence, Michael Collins

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

Alfalfa management in complex because it requires the simultaneous consideration of factors that affect the yield of the crop, forage quality for ruminants and the persistence of the stand. Considerable research has demonstrated the importance of agronomic factors such as soil pH, drainage and soil fertility in successful alfalfa production. Beyond soil factors and cultivar selection, selection of harvest date is one the most important management factors that influence yield, quality and stand persistence.

The Alfalfa Plant's Reaction To Grazing, Paul Deaton

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

Will the alfalfa plan survive grazing intensively by cattle? This question is asked most frequently these days.

Let's review the parts of an alfalfa plant to begin this discussion. Those parts are: Roots, crown and top growth. Alfalfa has a tap root which is used to store nutrient reserves for survival. It's ability to store these reserves and pull from them during times of stress (drought, cutting, etc.) makes it a very hardy plant.

Grazing Alfalfa — A Reality, John H. Wilson

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

Alfalfa offers an excellent opportunity to beef producers for receiving excellent performance. Exciting results have been seen for the past two years on the Thomas Farm (Registered Polled Hereford). A total of 1063 pounds of beef per acre produced this year, with similar results seen in 1986 - a total of 874 pounds of beef produced in 1986.

Weed Control In Alfalfa, Jonathan D. Green

Kentucky Alfalfa and Stored Forage Conference

Since weeds which infest forages are harvested along with the alfalfa crop, total dry matter production does not necessarily increase with good weed control. However, controlling weeds which invade alfalfa improve the forage quality. In addition, maintaining good weed control may also prolong the productive life of the alfalfa stand.

If managed properly, established alfalfa stands can effectively prevent many annual and perennial weeds from becoming a major problem. Maintaining proper soil fertility, soil pH, and good soil drainage are some practices which help keep the alfalfa competitive against invading weeds. Other factors which put alfalfa under stress, such as …