Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Maine’S Climate Yesterday, Today, And Tomorrow, George L. Jacobson, Ivan J. Fernandez, Paul A. Mayewski, Catherine V. Schmitt

Ivan J. Fernandez

Recent evidence suggests that climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate as a result of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and associated pollutants. Based on a recently completed study, the authors describe the changes Maine’s climate is likely to undergo over the next century. They suggest that while reduction of greenhouse gases is crucial, Maine needs to be prepared to adapt to the impact that our already changing climate will have on various ecosystems and economic sectors within the state

Moor Movement: Automated Docking On Drought-Stricken Reservoirs, Daniel Beck

Landscape Architecture

Moor Movement establishes a mechanized docking system for unpredictable shoreline fluctuations on inland lakes and reservoirs. Due to climate change and warmer global temperatures, the threat of ocean level rise has initiated massive proposals to address the interface between ocean and man-made infrastructure. While this is a monumental problem, ocean level rise is not the only immediate threat. The recently declared emergency drought conditions in California are finally bringing attention to inland lakes and reservoirs. While ocean levels might rise 2-7 feet in 100 years, a lake could drop 100 feet in 5 years. What happens to access roads, marinas, …

Three Essays On The Impact Of Global Warming In India., Eshita Gupta Dr.

Doctoral Theses

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The Örst chapter studies the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Delhi using daily data on electricity demand and apparent temperature for the period 2000-09. It estimates a semi-parametric variable coe¢ - cient model that allows for a non-linear relationship between temperature and electricity to shift over time, a feature that is necessary to incorporate given the rapid economic growth in India. As evident from previous studies, electricity demand is a U-shaped function of temperature. Three results from our analysis have important implications for electricityclimate policy: Firstly, the rising part of the …

Flowering Phenology Change And Climate Warming In Southwestern Ohio, Ryan Mcewan, Robert J. Brecha, Donald R. Geiger, Grace P. John

Robert J. Brecha

Global surface temperature has increased markedly over the last 100 years. This increase has a variety of implications for human societies, and for ecological systems. One of the most obvious ways ecosystems are affected by global climate change is through alteration of organisms’ developmental timing (phenology). We used annual botanical surveys that documented the first flowering for an array of species from 1976 to 2003 to examine the potential implications of climate change for plant development. The overall trend for these species was a progressively earlier flowering time. The two earliest flowering taxa (Galanthus and Crocus) also exhibited the strongest …

Global Warming And Population Responses Among Great Plains Birds, Paul A. Johnsgard

Zea E-Books Collection

Based on an analysis of 47 years (1967–2014) of Audubon Christmas Bird Counts (CBC), evidence for population changes and shifts in early winter (late December) ranges of nearly 150 species of birds in the Great Plains states is summarized, a region defined as including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. The rationale for this study had its origins in Terry Root’s 1988 Atlas of North American Wintering Birds. Root’s landmark study provided a baseline for evaluating the nationwide winter distributions of 253 North American birds in the mid-20th century, using data from the National Audubon Society’s …

Biogeochemical Analysis Of Ancient Pacific Cod Bone Suggests Hg Bioaccumulation Was Linked To Paleo Sea Level Rise And Climate Change, Maribeth S. Murray, C. Peter Mcroy, L. K. Duffy, Amy Hirons, J. M. Schaaf, Robert P. Trocine, John Trefry

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Deglaciation at the end of the Pleistocene initiated major changes in ocean circulation and distribution. Within a brief geological time, large areas of land were inundated by sea-level rise and today global sea level is 120 m above its minimum stand during the last glacial maximum. This was the era of modern sea shelf formation; climate change caused coastal plain flooding and created broad continental shelves with innumerable consequences to marine and terrestrial ecosystems and human populations. In Alaska, the Bering Sea nearly doubled in size and stretches of coastline to the south were flooded, with regional variability in the …

Up-To-Date Probabilistic Temperature Climatologies, Nir Krakauer, Naresh Devineni

Publications and Research

With ongoing global warming, climatologies based on average past temperatures are increasingly recognized as imperfect guides for current conditions, yet there is no consensus on alternatives. Here, we compare several approaches to deriving updated expected values of monthly mean temperatures, including moving average, exponentially weighted moving average, and piecewise linear regression. We go beyond most previous work by presenting updated climate normals as probability distributions rather than only point estimates, enabling estimation of the changing likelihood of hot and cold extremes. We show that there is a trade-off between bias and variance in these approaches, but that bias can be …

Agenda: Seeds Of Change: Responding To Global Change In A Bottom-Up World, University Of Colorado Boulder. Getches-Wilkinson Center For Natural Resources, Energy, And The Environment, University Of Colorado Boulder. School Of Law, Posner Center For International Development, Resolve (Firm), Newmont Mining Corporation

Seeds of Change: Responding to Global Change in a Bottom-Up World (Martz Winter Symposium, February 12-13)

Sponsors: Posner Center for International Development, RESOLVE, Inc., Newmont Mining Corporation, and Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment.

Conference moderators, panelists and speakers included University of Colorado Law School professors Phil Weiser, Sarah Krakoff, Britt Banks, and Lakshman Guruswamy.

This conference is made possible through the generous support of donors who sponsored this year’s Martz Sustainability Symposium (including Newmont Mining Corporation) and those who have invested in our Clyde O. Martz Endowed Fund for Natural Resources Management (including Brian Dolan and Davis Graham and Stubbs LLP). The Martz Natural Resources Management Fund was established in the memory …

Water Column Productivity And Temperature Predict Coral Reef Regeneration Across The Indo-Pacific, Bernhard Riegl, Peter W. Glynn, Evie A. Wieters, Samuel J. Purkis, C. D'Angelo, Joerg Wiedenmann

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites …

New Coastal Resilience Director Brings Track Record, Expertise, Insideodu, Old Dominion University

News Items

No abstract provided.

Advantages Of A Polycentric Approach To Climate Change Policy, Daniel H. Cole

Articles by Maurer Faculty

Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions — formal and …

Imber- Research For Marine Sustainability: Synthesis And The Way Forward, Eileen Hofmann, Alida Bundy, Ken Drinkwater, Alberto R. Piola, Bernard Avril, Carol Robinson

CCPO Publications

The Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) project aims at developing a comprehensive understanding of and accurate predictive capacity of ocean responses to accelerating global change and the consequent effects on the Earth system and human society. Understanding the changing ecology and biogeochemistry of marine ecosystems and their sensitivity and resilience to multiple drivers, pressures and stressors is critical to developing responses that will help reduce the vulnerability of marine-dependent human communities. This overview of the IMBER project provides a synthesis of project achievements and highlights the value of collaborative, interdisciplinary, integrated research approaches as developed and implemented through …

Integrated Hydrologic Land Surface State Climate Indicators, Brian Lamb

Dissertations and Theses

No abstract provided.

Characterization Of Increased Persistence And Intensity Of Precipitation In The Northeastern United States, Justin Guilbert, Alan K. Betts, Donna M. Rizzo, Brian Beckage, Arne Bomblies

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

We present evidence of increasing persistence in daily precipitation in the northeastern United States that suggests that global circulation changes are affecting regional precipitation patterns. Meteorological data from 222 stations in 10 northeastern states are analyzed using Markov chain parameter estimates to demonstrate that a significant mode of precipitation variability is the persistence of precipitation events. We find that the largest region‐wide trend in wet persistence (i.e., the probability of precipitation in 1 day and given precipitation in the preceding day) occurs in June (+0.9% probability per decade over all stations). We also find that the study region is experiencing …

How Climate Change Has Affected The Spatio-Temporal Patterns Of Precipitation And Temperature At Various Time Scales In North Korea, Won-Ho Nam, Eun-Mi Hong, Guillermo A. Baigorria

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Detecting changes in the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation is a prerequisite for developing effective adaptation options and strategies for the future. An effective method for assessing climate change and for providing information to decision makers and stakeholders is needed to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The objective of this study was to determine whether climate change has caused spatio-temporal changes in meteorological elements in North Korea. We delineated the spatio-temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation caused by climate change in specific time periods based on statistically significant differences using a statistically robust method. Historical weather data from 27 meteorological …

The Impacts Of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies On Animal Welfare, Sara Shields, Geoffrey Orme-Evans

Animal Welfare Collection

The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and …

Responses Of Global Terrestrial Evapotranspiration To Climate Change And Increasing Atmospheric Co2 In The 21st Century, Shufen Pan, Hanqin Tian, Shree R. S. Dangal, Qichun Yang, Jia Yang, Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu, Bo Tao, Wei Ren, Zhiyun Ouyang

Chaoqun (Crystal) Lu

Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of the water lost to the atmosphere through land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the global hydrological cycle, but remains much uncertain. In this study, we use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model to estimate the global terrestrial ET during 2000–2009 and project its changes in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 under two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) during 2010–2099. Modeled results show a mean annual global terrestrial ET of about 549 (545–552) mm yr−1 during 2000–2009. Relative to the 2000s, global terrestrial ET for the 2090s would increase …

An Appraisal Of Experiences Of Climate Change And Adaptive Response To Heat Stress By Farmers In Rural Ghana, Kwasi Frimpong

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

With the increase in average global temperatures, heat-related illnesses and deaths have unfolded as occupational and health issues. Periods of high to extreme temperatures are becoming more common and are a leading cause of weather-related deaths in many countries. In agricultural settings of African countries, heat stress is a major concern as many smallholder farmers work outdoors with limited access to cooling systems even in their resting and living environments. This study, conducted in the Bawku East part of Northern-East Ghana in 2013, examines, in the context of climate change, the trends and impacts of heat stress on smallholder farmers, …

On Underestimation Of Global Vulnerability To Tree Mortality And Forest Die-Off From Hotter Drought In The Anthropocene, Craig D. Allen, David D. Breshears, Nate G. Mcdowell

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—‘‘hotter drought’’, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases …

Regional Scale Cropland Carbon Budgets: Evaluating A Geospatial Agricultural Modeling System Using Inventory Data, Xuesong Zhang, Roberto C. Izaurralde, David H. Manowitz, Ritvik Sahajpal, Tristram O. West, Allison M. Thomson, Min Xu, Kaiguang Zhao, Stephen D. Leduc, Jimmy R. Williams

United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publications

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems …

Snails From Heavy-Metal Polluted Environments Have Reduced Sensitivity To Carbon Dioxide-Induced Acidity, Hugh Lefcort, David A. Cleary, Aaron M. Marble, Morgan V. Phillips, Timothy J. Stoddard, Lara M. Tuthill, James R. Winslow

Biology Faculty Scholarship

Anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 reacts with water to form carbonic acid (H2CO3) which increases water acidity. While marine acidification has received recent consideration, less attention has been paid to the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide on freshwater systems—systems that often have low buffering potential. Since many aquatic systems are already impacted by pollutants such as heavy metals, we wondered about the added effect of rising atmospheric CO2 on freshwater organisms. We studied aquatic pulmonate snails (Physella columbiana) from both a heavy-metal polluted watershed and snails from a reference watershed that has not experienced mining pollution. We used gaseous CO2 …

The Impact Of Climate Change On Human Health, Mary Snow, Richard Snow

Publications

Climate change is impacting human health. An obvious effect of a warmer environment is more frequent and severe heat waves. During the European heat wave of 2003, there were an estimated 35,000 more deaths than normal in the first two weeks of August. Many of the deaths resulted from cardiovascular complications among the elderly. As heat waves become more commonplace in the future, so will the number of heat strokes and the onset of other cardiovascular problems. Higher summertime temperatures also increase tropospheric ozone concentrations which in turn affects people with asthma and causes lung and heart damage. Increases in …

Strengthening Confidence In Climate Change Impact Science, Mary I. O'Connor, Johnna M. Holding, Carrie V. Kappel, Carlos M. Duarte, Keith Brander, Christopher J. Brown, John F. Bruno, Lauren Buckley, Michael T. Burrows, Benjamin S. Halpern, Wolfgang Kiessling, Pippa Moore, John M. Pandolfi, Camille Parmesan, Elvira S. Poloczanska, David S. Schoeman, William J. Sydeman, Anthony J. Richardson

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Aim: To assess confidence in conclusions about climate-driven biological change through time, and identify approaches for strengthening confidence scientific conclusions about ecological impacts of climate change. Location: Global. Methods: We outlined a framework for strengthening confidence in inferences drawn from biological climate impact studies through the systematic integration of prior expectations, long-term data and quantitative statistical procedures. We then developed a numerical confidence index (Cindex) and used it to evaluate current practices in 208 studies of marine climate impacts comprising 1735 biological time series. Results: Confidence scores for inferred climate impacts varied widely from 1 to 16 (very low to …

Climate Change Implications For Health-Care Waste Incineration Trends During Emergency Situations, Emilia Mmbando Raila

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Healthcare waste (HCW) incineration practices in the global South countries are among the major sources of black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke. This study analyzes HCW incineration trends during emergency situations and smoke from HCW incineration processes in Haiti. The study was prompted by the current arguments about the climate change and the growing health effects associated with BC emissions. The conceptual framework was based on both adverse health effects from BC emissions exposure and climate change potential of BC emissions. Therefore, the goal was to determine whether cardboard HCW sharps containers emit lower BC emissions to the atmosphere during …

A Bird’S- Eye View Of The Usa National Phenology Network: An Off-The-Shelf Monitoring Program, Jherime Kellerman, Caroline A. F. Enquist, Diana L. Humple, Nathaniel E. Seavy, Alyssa Rosemartin, Renée L. Cormier, Lorianne Barnett

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Phenology is central to the biology and ecology of organisms and highly sensitive to climate. Differential responses to climate change are impacting phenological synchrony of inter- acting species, which has been implicated in the decline of migratory birds that rely on seasonal resources. However, few studies explicitly measure phenology of seasonal habitat resources on the breeding and wintering grounds and at stopover sites. While avian monitoring methods are widely standardized, methods of monitoring resource phenology can be highly variable and difficult to integrate. The USA National Phenology Network (USA- NPN) has developed standardized plant and animal phenology protocols and a …

An Analysis Of Risk Perceptions And Attitudes Towards Climate Change Among Residents Of Southeastern Louisiana, Heather Marie Brown

LSU Master's Theses

Climate change is an important issue of concern, as its environmental impacts are already beginning to manifest in various means, such as through sea level rise and increased frequencies of storms. Areas of high vulnerability to the effects of climate change, such as southeastern Louisiana, are prime locations to initiate research in determining what factors influence individual’s risk perceptions towards climate change. This study aims is to identify key factors, specifically in the areas of socioeconomic, demographic, exposure, and attitudinal attributes, which affect climate change risk perceptions. The study area is that of the zip codes around Lake Pontchartrain in …

Assessing The Carbon Impacts Of Colby College’S Biomass Plant, Alice Hotopp

Honors Theses

Biomass energy plants are considered to be carbon neutral systems under some definitions. However, this concept of carbon neutrality needs to be rethought in order to understand the true carbon impact of biomass plants upon global climate change. A biomass plant’s wood source, the extent to which the biomass plant emits carbon dioxide, and the timescale over which the biomass plant emits carbon should all be taken into account. In this study, I consider the Colby College biomass plant’s role in carbon cycling. Colby’s Physical Plant Department provided me with information on how much carbon (tons of woodchips) is used …

Interactions Among Spruce Beetle Disturbance, Climate Change And Forest Dynamics Captured By A Forest Landscape Model, Christian Temperli, Thomas T. Veblen, Sarah J. Hart, Dominik Kulakowski, Alan J. Tepley

Geography

The risk of bark beetle outbreaks is widely predicted to increase because of a warming climate that accelerates temperature-driven beetle population growth and drought stress that impairs host tree defenses. However, few if any studies have explicitly evaluated climatically enhanced beetle population dynamics in relation to climate-driven changes in forest composition and structure that may alter forest suitability for beetle infestation. We synthesized current understanding of the interactions among climate, spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) and forest dynamics to parameterize and further advance the bark beetle module of a dynamic forest landscape model (LandClim) that also integrates fire and wind disturbance …

Political Ecologies Of Resource Extraction: Agendas Pendientes, Anthony J. Bebbington

Geography

Research related to extractive industries has grown significantly over the last decade. As the commodities boom appears to be winding down, this essay outlines areas for potential future research. Emphasis is placed on the need for research on: the relationships among extractivism, climate change and societal transitions; the aggregate effects of the commodity boom on the environment, on societal structures, on elite formation and on cultural politics; the implications of resource extraction on the couplings of space and power at different scales and with particular reference to the Colombian peace process; and the gendered and generation dimensions of the effects …

Negative Feedbacks On Bark Beetle Outbreaks: Widespread And Severe Spruce Beetle Infestation Restricts Subsequent Infestation, Sarah J. Hart, Thomas T. Veblen, Nathan Mietkiewicz, Dominik Kulakowski

Geography

Understanding disturbance interactions and their ecological consequences remains a major challenge for research on the response of forests to a changing climate. When, where, and how one disturbance may alter the severity, extent, or occurrence probability of a subsequent disturbance is encapsulated by the concept of linked disturbances. Here, we evaluated 1) how climate and forest habitat variables, including disturbance history, interact to drive 2000s spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) infestation of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) across the Southern Rocky Mountains; and 2) how previous spruce beetle infestation affects subsequent infestation across the Flat Tops Wilderness in northwestern Colorado, which experienced …