Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Apathy And Concern Over The Future Habitability Of Earth: An Introductory College Assignment Of Forecasting Co2 In The Earth’S Atmosphere, Benjamin J. Burger

Journal on Empowering Teaching Excellence

Non-science, first year regional undergraduate students from rural Utah communities participated in an online introductory geology course and were asked to forecast the rise of CO₂ in the Earth’s atmosphere. The majority of students predicted catastrophic rise to 5,000-ppm sometime over the next 3,100 years, resulting in an atmosphere nearly uninhabitable to human life. However, the level of concern the students exhibited in their answers was not directly proportional with their timing in their forecasted rise of CO₂. This study showcases the importance of presenting students with actual data and using data to develop student forecasted models. …

Marsh Persistence Under Sea-Level Rise Is Controlled By Multiple, Geologically Variable Stressors, Molly Mitchell, Julie Herman, Donna M. Bilkovic, Carl Hershner

VIMS Articles

Introduction: Marshes contribute to habitat and water quality in estuaries and coastal bays. Their importance to continued ecosystem functioning has led to concerns about their persistence.

Outcomes: Concurrent with sea-level rise, marshes are eroding and appear to be disappearing through ponding in their interior; in addition, in many places, they are being replaced with shoreline stabilization structures. We examined the changes in marsh extent over the past 40 years within a subestuary of Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States, to better understand the effects of sea-level rise and human pressure on marsh coverage.

Climate Change And Food Systems: Assessing Impacts And Opportunities, Meredith T. Niles, Richie Ahuja, Jimena M. Esquivel, Nelson Mango, Mil Duncan, Martin Heller, Cristina Tirado

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Life In Hampton Roads: Sea Level Rise And Flooding, Public Affairs & News Bureau, Old Dominion University

News Items

No abstract provided.

Odu Scientists Address Antarctic Ice Melt Affecting Sea Levels, Miasia Osbey

News Items

No abstract provided.

Origins And Transformations Of Dissolved Organic Matter In Large Arctic Rivers, Karl Kaiser, Maria Canedo-Oropeza, Rachel Mcmahon, Eainer M. W. Amon

OES Faculty Publications

Arctic river watersheds are important components of the global climate system and show an amplified response to climate change. Here, we characterize origins and transformations of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in five major Arctic rivers (Kolyma, Lena, Yenisei, Ob, Mackenzie) over 3 years with seasonal sampling periods using measurements of carbohydrates, amino acids, bacterial biomarkers (D-amino acids), and plant protein biomarkers (hydroxyproline). A strong seasonal cycle of bioavailable DOM export was observed that correlated with discharge, vegetation, river morphology and water residence time. The chemical composition of bioavailable DOM was different among rivers reflecting unique characteristics of Arctic river watersheds. …

Linear And Nonlinear Effects Of Temperature And Precipitation On Ecosystem Properties In Tidal Saline Wetlands, Laura C. Feher, Michael J. Osland, Kereen T. Griffith, James B. Grace, Rebecca J. Howard, Camille L. Stagg, Nicholas M. Enwright, Ken W. Krauss, Christopher A. Gabler, Richard H. Day, Kerrylee Rogers

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of tidal saline wetland ecosystems. However, there is a need to better quantify the effects of climatic drivers on ecosystem properties, particularly near climate-sensitive ecological transition zones. Here, we used climate- and literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands to test hypotheses regarding the influence of climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and precipitation regimes) on the following six ecosystem properties: canopy height, biomass, productivity, decomposition, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation. Our analyses quantify and elucidate linear and nonlinear effects of climatic drivers. We quantified positive linear relationships between temperature and above-ground productivity …

The Effect Of Warming On Wind Speed And Potential Wind Power In Iceland, Alexei Smith

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Climate change is causing a shift in the temperature and pressure gradient between the Arctic and the Equator, with the Arctic warming at a faster rate than the Equator. This shift has the potential to alter the seasonal wind speeds in the Northern Hemisphere, which could in turn affect the wind power density potential. In this study, a wind model was created to predict future wind speeds and wind power density for 6 weather stations in Iceland. According to the model, winter wind speeds and wind power density potential will either stay the same or increase slightly (0 – 4%), …

Climate Change

Activities

Global warming is a huge issue, not just because of the potential impact of the warming on the earth’s ecosystems, but also because the principal activity responsible for the bulk of emissions, fossil fuel combustion, literally fuels the engines of industrialized, urbanized societies. The stakes are huge -- international, political, financial, and environmental. In this exercise, you’ll learn about how to assess information sources, a critical skill in forming your own opinions and actions.

Changes In Severe Thunderstorm Environment Frequency During The 21st Century Caused By Anthropogenically Enhanced Global Radiative Forcing, Robert J. Trapp, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Harold E. Brooks, Michael E. Baldwin, Eric D. Robinson, Jeremy S. Pal

Jeremy Pal

Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions …

Using The Nasa Worldwind Agrosphere Web App As A Climate Change Modeling Tool In The Classroom, Nicholas Rubel, Patrick Hogan, Stacey Chen, Endia Irazarry, Atreya Iyer, John Nguyen, Mingda Tang

STAR Program Research Presentations

Climate change is a clear and imminent threat to the world today. While there are Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) for teaching climate change in the classroom, students may have a difficult time understanding the seriousness of the issue. One of the standards in the NGSS is for students to develop their own explanation of climate change and its impact. That’s where AgroSphere comes in. AgroSphere is a web-based app that utilizes NASA open-source software WorldWind. WorldWind allows developers to create their own Java, Android, or web-based apps that can display data on the globe. AgroSphere displays historical weather (climate) …

Major Hurricane Impact: Is Hampton Roads Ready?, Jon Cawley

News Items

No abstract provided.

Bleached! The Catastrophe Management Of Corals, Irus Braverman

Journal Articles

Corals have recently emerged as both a sign and a measure of the imminent catastrophic future of life on earth and, as such, have become the focus of intense conservation management. Bleached! draws on in-depth interviews and participatory observations with coral scientists and managers to explore the management of the corals’ ecological catastrophe to come. The article starts by describing the unique life of corals, the importance of calculability in catastrophe management, and the coral scientists’ preoccupation with classifying, counting, and seeing in their attempt to comprehensibly monitor corals and anticipate their decline. Algorithmic models and elaborate temporal analyses are …

A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …

Rethinking Urban Green Infrastructure As A Means To Promote Avian Conservation, Allen Lau

Master's Projects and Capstones

There is an under-recognized potential for cities to use urban green infrastructure to contribute to avian biodiversity conservation. At the global scale, climate change and growing urbanization are primary global drivers leading to decline and homogenization in world bird populations. Birds are fundamental and intricate species in ecosystems, and even in urban areas, act as indicator and regulator species contributing to healthy ecosystem function. While many cities have recognized the economic and social benefits associated with green spaces, such as the vast benefits ecosystem services provide to the urban dweller, the use of green spaces to concurrently contribute to avian …

Responses Of Agroecosystems To Climate Change: Specifics Of Resilience In The Mid-Latitude Region, Menas Kafatos, Seung Hee Kim, Chul-Hee Lim, Jinwon Kim, Woo-Kyun Lee

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the productivity and resilience of agroecosystems in the Korean Peninsula. Having learned valuable lessons from a Chapman University project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture which concentrated on the semi-arid region of southwestern United States, our joint Korea—Chapman University team has applied similar methodologies to the Korean Peninsula, which is itself an interesting study case in the mid-latitude region. In particular, the Korean Peninsula has unique agricultural environments due to differences in political and socioeconomic systems between South Korea and North Korea. Specifically, North Korea has been suffering from food shortages due to natural disasters, …

Mountain Forests And Sustainable Development: The Potential For Achieving The United Nations' 2030 Agenda, Georg Gratzer, William S. Keeton

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

The world is facing numerous and severe environmental, social, and economic challenges. To address these, in September 2015 the General Assembly of the United Nations adopted the resolution Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The United Nations' 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and their 169 targets are ambitious, broadly encompassing, and indivisible. They are intended to guide nations and communities toward attaining healthy and peaceful livelihoods free of poverty and hunger. Collectively the goals envision sound and safe environments, where global threats like climate change are successfully combated through both mitigation and adaptation. Agenda 2030 envisages sustainable …

Exploring The Impact Of Climate And Land Cover Change On Regional Hydrology In A Snowmelt-Dominated Watershed: The Upper Boise River Basin, Idaho, Amy Steimke

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Seasonally snow-dominated, mountainous watersheds supply water to many human populations globally. However, the timing and magnitude of water delivery from these watersheds has already and will continue to change as climate is altered. Associated changes in watershed vegetation cover further affect the runoff responses of watersheds, from altering evapotranspiration rates to changing surface energy fluxes, and there exists a need to incorporate land cover change in hydrologic modeling studies. However, few land cover projections exist at the scale needed for watershed studies, and current models may be unable to simulate key interactions that occur between land cover and hydrologic processes. …

Moving From Generalisations To Specificity About Mangrove –Saltmarsh Dynamics, Kerrylee Rogers, Ken W. Krauss

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Spatial and temporal variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival affects the distribution of mangrove, particularly near their latitudinal limit, where mangrove expansion into saltmarsh is conspicuous. In this paper the spatial variability in mangrove distribution and variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival during the Quaternary period are reviewed, focusing on research at latitudinal limits in Australia and mainland USA. Despite similarities in the response of mangrove to some drivers, the expression of these drivers is both spatially and temporally variable, demonstrating the need for analyses of mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics to move beyond generalizations and incorporate regional and …

Observed Changes In Climate And Streamflow In The Upper Rio Grande Basin, Shaleene Chavarria

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting the streamflow volume derived from snow accumulation in ways consistent with climate model-based projections of 21st century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the upper Rio Grande (URG) near its headwaters in southern Colorado are assessed for water years 1958-2015. Trends in discharge are examined together with variations in snow water equivalent and surface climate variables. Results indicate that temperatures in the basin have increased significantly primarily in the winter and spring seasons, April 1 snow …

A Landscape Of Thermal Inequity: Social Vulnerability To Urban Heat In U.S. Cities, Bruce Coffyn Mitchell

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

A combination of the urban heat island effect and a rising temperature baseline resulting from global climate change inequitably impacts socially vulnerable populations residing in urban areas. This dissertation examines distributional inequity of exposure to urban heat by socially disadvantaged groups and minorities in the context of climate justice. Using Cutter’s hazards-of-place model, variables indicative of social vulnerability and biophysical vulnerability are statistically tested for their associations. Biophysical vulnerability is conceptualized utilizing a urban heat risk index calculated from summer 2010 LANDSAT imagery to measure land surface temperature , structural density through the normalized difference built-up index, and vegetation abundance …

Environmental Impacts Of Holiday Gift Giving Of Books And Movies, Benjamin Shaffer

DePaul Discoveries

This project examines the relationship between gift giving deadweight loss (when the cost of a gift exceeds it value to the recipient) or welfare gain (when the value of a gift to a recipient exceeds the cost of a gift), and the environmental impact of gifts. Surveys of American adults were used to determine the economic welfare losses or gains created by holiday gift giving, comparing gifts of traditional (paper) books and DVD or Blu-ray format movies. Both products showed overall welfare gains as gifts, with books averaging a larger welfare gain than movies. An ANOVA was done to determine …

Determining Effects Of Heat Stress On Illinois Soybeans, Ava Alford, Charles Burroughs, Lisa Ainsworth

PRECS student projects

Rising global temperatures affect our food supply. Heat stress could negatively affect photosynthesis, plant development, and flower and pod production. The research summarized in this poster aims to better understand which physiological processes in soybeans are negatively affected by heat stress in order to identify targets for future soybean production. Using infrared heat arrays, two different cultivars of Illinois soybeans are continually heated. Throughout the experiment, data is collected on photosynthesis, leaf area index, and overall productivity of the plant. At the end of the growing season, all of the soybean plants will be harvested and their biomass will be …

Investigating Physical Processes Associated With Chesapeake Bay And Changjiang Estuary, Arash Niroomandi

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Coastal and estuaries are landforms that not only have great impacts on large marine ecosystem, but also play a significant role in moderating or aggravating natural hazards and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. This dissertation explores some of the concerns associated with coasts and coastal systems. In the second chapter, a thirty seven year wave hindcast (1979-2015) in Chesapeake Bay using NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wind is presented. The long-term significant wave heights are generated by the third-generation nearshore wave model SWAN, which is validated using the wave height measurements at buoy stations …

Potential Impacts Of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise And Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge In Western Pasco County, Florida, Kittiya Harris

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Sea levels have risen approximately 20 cm since the beginning of the 20th century and more than 3 cm in the past 20 years, suggesting that global sea level rise is accelerating. As sea levels continue to rise and storms become more intense, coastal property and populations become more susceptible to damage. Florida is especially vulnerable to hurricane-induced storm surge (HSS) and the onset of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR) due to its extensive coastline and high population density along the coast. The main purpose of this research is to assess the potential economic impacts of ASLR and HSS for two …

Spatial And Temporal Variation In Mangrove Distribution (1950-2014) In Tampa, Florida Usa, Carolyn Cheatham Rhodes

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

I carried out an observational study of historic high resolution aerial imagery spanning six decades (1950-2014) to identify recent and historic spatial extent of mangrove forests, within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida USA. My objectives were to map mangrove distribution and spatial extent and any change or patterns of change discernable. I observed variable patterns of change and rates of expansion varied between sites spatially as well as within sites between time intervals. I found notable changes in mangrove extent in the Tampa from historic and modern aerial imagery for the ~64-year period between 1950 and …

Evaluation Of A Proposal For Reliable Low-Cost Grid Power With 100% Wind, Water, And Solar, Christopher T.M. Clack, Staffan A. Qvist, Jay Apt, Morgan Bazilian, Adam R. Brandt, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis, Victor Diakov, Mark A. Handschy, Paul D.H. Hines, Paulina Jaramillo, Daniel M. Kammen, Jane C.S. Long, M. Granger Morgan, Adam Reed, Varun Sivaram, James Sweeney, George R. Tynan, David G. Victor, John P. Weyant, Jay F. Whitacre

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

A number of analyses, meta-Analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of …

Climate Change, One Health And Mercury, L. K. Duffy, T. Vertigan, B. Dainowski, K. Dunlap, Amy Hirons

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Climate change is occurring on both regional and global scales. The use and global distribution of toxic metals is increasing and affecting environmental, animal and human health as a result of air, water and food contamination. Mercury (Hg) in major forms Hg°, Hg²⁺ and methyl mercury (CH₃Hg⁺) are increasingly available around the globe. Both metal and organic contaminants are impacting the health of all species on the planet. Mercury is an example of a metal that can cause or aggravate a disease state, for example, diabetes. Habitat stewardship is needed to maintain a healthy system, …

Total And Extreme Precipitation Changes Over The Northeastern United States, Huanping Huang, Jonathan M. Winter, Erich C. Osterberg, Radley M. Horton, Brian Beckage

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The northeastern United States has experienced a large increase in precipitation over recent decades. Annual and seasonal changes of total and extreme precipitation from station observations in the Northeast were assessed over multiple time periods spanning 1901-2014. Spatially averaged, both annual total and extreme precipitation across the Northeast increased significantly since 1901, with changepoints occurring in 2002 and 1996, respectively. Annual extreme precipitation experienced a larger increase than total precipitation; extreme precipitation from 1996 to 2014 is 53% higher than from 1901 to 1995. Spatially, coastal areas receive more total and extreme precipitation on average, but increases across the changepoints …

The Relationship Between Wildfire Dynamics And Soil Carbon In Boreal Forests Of Alaska: Forest Management For Emissions Reduction In A Changing Climate, James D. Heaster

Master's Projects and Capstones

The boreal region of Alaska has vast forests spanning hundreds of thousands of square kilometers in the central portion of the state that is prone to large stand replacing summer wildfires. The region stores considerable quantities of terrestrial carbon sequestered in soil horizons down to 1 meter in depth that are strongly influenced by a combination of climate change, permafrost dynamics, vegetative composition, and fire regimes. Data and literature establish that the boreal region of Alaska (and the rest of the Arctic) has been steadily warming at a rate nearly double that of lower latitudes. This warming has resulted in …