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Articles 1201 - 1230 of 2768
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Commodity Money And The Valuation Of Trade, Eric Smith, Martin Shubik
Commodity Money And The Valuation Of Trade, Eric Smith, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In a previous essay we modeled the enforcement of contract, and through it the provision of money and markets, as a production function within the society, the scale of which is optimized endogenously by labor allocation away from primary production of goods. Government and a central bank provided fiat money and enforced repayment of loans, giving fiat a predictable value in trade, and also rationalizing the allocation of labor to government service, in return for a fiat salary. Here, for comparison, we consider the same trade problem without government or fiat money, using instead a durable good (gold) as a …
Two Algorithms For Solving The Walrasian Equilibrium Inequalities, Donald J. Brown, Ravi Kannan
Two Algorithms For Solving The Walrasian Equilibrium Inequalities, Donald J. Brown, Ravi Kannan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose two algorithms for deciding if the Walrasian equilibrium inequalities are solvable. These algorithms may serve as nonparametric tests for multiple calibration of applied general equilibrium models or they can be used to compute counterfactual equilibria in applied general equilibrium models defined by the Walrasian equilibrium inequalities.
Ex Post Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris
Ex Post Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We analyze the problem of fully implementing a social choice set in ex post equilibrium. We identify an ex post monotonicity condition that is necessary and — in economic environments — sufficient for full implementation in ex post equilibrium. We also identify an ex post monotonicity no veto condition that is sufficient. Ex post monotonicity is satisfied in all single crossing environments with strict ex post incentive constraints. In many economically significant environments, ex post implementation can be achieved in the direct mechanism. We show by means of two classic examples that ex post monotonicity does not imply nor is …
Decision Methods For Solving Systems Of Walrasian Inequalities, Donald J. Brown, Ravi Kannan
Decision Methods For Solving Systems Of Walrasian Inequalities, Donald J. Brown, Ravi Kannan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose two algorithms for deciding if systems of Walrasian inequalities are solvable. These algorithms may serve as nonparametric tests for multiple calibration of applied general equilibrium models or they can be used to compute counterfactual equilibria in applied general equilibrium models defined by systems of Walrasian inequalities.
Courage To Capital? A Model Of The Effects Of Rating Agencies On Sovereign Debt Roll-Over, Mark A. Carlson, Galina Hale
Courage To Capital? A Model Of The Effects Of Rating Agencies On Sovereign Debt Roll-Over, Mark A. Carlson, Galina Hale
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose a model of rating agencies that is an application of global game theory in which heterogeneous investors act strategically. The model allows us to explore the impact of the introduction of a rating agency on financial markets. Our model suggests that the addition of the rating agency affects the probability of default and the magnitude of the response of capital flows to changes in fundamentals in a non–trivial way, and that introducing a rating agency can bring multiple equilibria to a market that otherwise would have the unique equilibrium.
The Nonparametric Approach To Applied Welfare Analysis, Donald J. Brown, Caterina Calsamiglia
The Nonparametric Approach To Applied Welfare Analysis, Donald J. Brown, Caterina Calsamiglia
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Changes in total surplus and deadweight loss are traditional measures of economic welfare. We propose necessary and sufficient conditions for rationalizing consumer demand data with a quasilinear utility function. Under these conditions, consumer surplus is a valid measure of consumer welfare. For nonmarketed goods, we propose necessary and sufficient conditions on market data for efficient production , i.e., production at minimum cost. Under these conditions we derive a cost function for the nonmarketed good, where producer surplus is the area above the marginal cost curve.
The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal For Social Security: An Evaluation, Robert J. Shiller
The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal For Social Security: An Evaluation, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The life-cycle accounts proposal for Social Security reform has been justified by its proponents using a number of different arguments, but these arguments generally involve the assumption of a high likelihood of good returns on the accounts. A simulation is undertaken to estimate the probability distribution of returns in the accounts based on long-term historical experience. U.S. stock market, bond market and money market data 1871-2004 are used for the analysis. Assuming that future returns behave like historical data, it is found that a baseline personal account portfolio after offset will be negative 32% of the time on the retirement …
Exactly Distribution-Free Inference In Instrumental Variables Regression With Possibly Weak Instruments, Donald W.K. Andrews, Vadim Marmer
Exactly Distribution-Free Inference In Instrumental Variables Regression With Possibly Weak Instruments, Donald W.K. Andrews, Vadim Marmer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper introduces a rank-based test for the instrumental variables regression model that dominates the Anderson-Rubin test in terms of finite sample size and asymptotic power in certain circumstances. The test has correct size for any distribution of the errors with weak or strong instruments. The test has noticeably higher power than the Anderson-Rubin test when the error distribution has thick tails and comparable power otherwise. Like the Anderson-Rubin test, the rank tests considered here perform best, relative to other available tests, in exactly-identified models.
Sparse Estimators And The Oracle Property, Or The Return Of Hodges’ Estimator, Hannes Leeb, Benedikt M. Pötscher
Sparse Estimators And The Oracle Property, Or The Return Of Hodges’ Estimator, Hannes Leeb, Benedikt M. Pötscher
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We point out some pitfalls related to the concept of an oracle property as used in Fan and Li (2001, 2002, 2004) which are reminiscent of the well-known pitfalls related to Hodges’ estimator. The oracle property is often a consequence of sparsity of an estimator. We show that any estimator satisfying a sparsity property has maximal risk that converges to the supremum of the loss function; in particular, the maximal risk diverges to infinity when ever the loss function is unbounded. For ease of presentation the result is set in the framework of a linear regression model, but generalizes far …
Policy Effects In The Post Boom U.S. Economy, Ray C. Fair
Policy Effects In The Post Boom U.S. Economy, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The paper analyzes the question why the U.S. economy in the 2000:4-2004:3 period was sluggish in light of the large expansionary fiscal and monetary policies that took place. The answer does not appear to be that there were large structural changes in the economy or systematic bad shocks. This paper tests for such changes and shocks, and the results are generally negative. Instead, the main culprits seem to be large negative effects from declines in the stock market and exports. Although not tested in this paper, some of the decline in exports may be the result of the stock market …
The Demand For Information: More Heat Than Light, Jussi Keppo, Giuseppe Moscarini, Lones Smith
The Demand For Information: More Heat Than Light, Jussi Keppo, Giuseppe Moscarini, Lones Smith
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper produces a comprehensive theory of the value of Bayesian information and its static demand. Our key insight is to assume ‘natural units’ corresponding to the sample size of conditionally i.i.d. signals – focusing on the smooth nearby model of the precision of an observation of a Brownian motion with uncertain drift. In a two state world, this produces the heat equation from physics, and leads to a tractable theory. We derive explicit formulas that harmonize the known small and large sample properties of information, and reveal some fundamental properties of demand: (a) Value ‘non-concavity’: The marginal value of …
Behavioral Economics And Institutional Innovation, Robert J. Shiller
Behavioral Economics And Institutional Innovation, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Behavioral economics has played a fundamental role historically in innovation in economic institutions, even long before behavioral economics was recognized as a discipline. Examples from history, notably that of the invention of workers’ compensation, illustrate this point. Though scholarly discussion develops over decades, actual innovation tends to occur episodically, particularly at times of economic crisis. Fortunately, some of the major professional societies, the Verein für Sozialpolitik, the American Economic Association and their successors, have managed to keep a broad discourse going, involving a variety of research methods including some that may be described today as behavioral economics, thereby maintaining an …
Probabilities As Similarity-Weighted Frequencies, Antoine Billot, Itzhak Gilboa, Dov Samet, David Schmeidler
Probabilities As Similarity-Weighted Frequencies, Antoine Billot, Itzhak Gilboa, Dov Samet, David Schmeidler
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.
Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities From State Probability Data, Ray C. Fair
Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities From State Probability Data, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A “ranking” assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method issued to analyze state probability data from the Intrade political betting market. The Intrade prices of various contracts are quite close to what would be expected under the ranking assumption. Under the joint hypothesis that the Intrade price ranking is correct and the ranking assumption is correct, President Bush should not have won any state ranked below a state that he lost. He did not win any …
Fact-Free Learning, Enriqueta Aragones, Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, David Schmeidler
Fact-Free Learning, Enriqueta Aragones, Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, David Schmeidler
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
People may be surprised by noticing certain regularities that hold in existing knowledge they have had for some time. That is, they may learn without getting new factual information. We argue that this can be partly explained by computational complexity. We show that, given a database, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R 2 is computationally hard, in the sense that this term is used in computer science. We discuss some of the implications of this result and of fact-free learning in general.
Rule-Based And Case-Based Reasoning In Housing Prices, Gabrielle Gayer, Itzhak Gilboa, Offer Lieberman
Rule-Based And Case-Based Reasoning In Housing Prices, Gabrielle Gayer, Itzhak Gilboa, Offer Lieberman
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
People reason about real-estate prices both in terms of general rules and in terms of analogies to similar cases. We propose to empirically test which mode of reasoning fits the data better. To this end, we develop the statistical techniques required for the estimation of the case-based model. It is hypothesized that case-based reasoning will have relatively more explanatory power in databases of rental apartments, whereas rule-based reasoning will have a relative advantage in sales data. We motivate this hypothesis on theoretical grounds, and find empirical support for it by comparing the two statistical techniques (rule-based and case-based) on two …
Retrospective On The Postwar Productivity Slowdown, William D. Nordhaus
Retrospective On The Postwar Productivity Slowdown, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The present study reviews the “productivity slowdown” of the 1970s and 1980s. The study also develops a new data set — industrial data available back to 1948 — as well as a new set of tools for decomposing changes in productivity growth. The major result of this study is that the productivity slowdown of the 1970s has survived three decades of scrutiny, conceptual refinements, and data revisions. The slowdown was primarily centered in those sectors that were most energy-intensive, were hardest hit by the energy shocks of the 1970s, and therefore had large output declines. In a sense, the energy …
Estimated Age Effects In Athletic Events And Chess, Ray C. Fair
Estimated Age Effects In Athletic Events And Chess, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Rates of decline are estimated using record bests by age for chess and for various track and field, road running, and swimming events. Using a fairly flexible functional form, the estimates show linear percent decline between age 35 and about age 70 and then quadratic decline after that. Chess shows much less decline than the physical activities. Rates of decline are generally larger for the longer distances, and for swimming they are larger for women than for men. An advantage of using best-performance records to estimate rates of decline is that the records are generally based on very large samples. …
On The Nonparametric Identification Of Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations Models: Comment On B. Brown (1983) And Roehrig (1988), C. Lanier Benkard, Steven T. Berry
On The Nonparametric Identification Of Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations Models: Comment On B. Brown (1983) And Roehrig (1988), C. Lanier Benkard, Steven T. Berry
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This note revisits the identification theorems of B. Brown (1983) and Roehrig (1988). We describe an error in the proofs of the main identification theorems in these papers, and provide an important counterexample to the theorems on the identification of the reduced form. Specifically, contrary to the theorems, the reduced form of a nonseparable simultaneous equations model is not identified even under the assumptions of those papers. We conclude the note with a conjecture that it may be possible to use classical exclusion restrictions to recover some of the key implications of the theorems.
Toward An Economic Theory Of Dysfunctional Identity, Hanming Fang, Glenn C. Loury
Toward An Economic Theory Of Dysfunctional Identity, Hanming Fang, Glenn C. Loury
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We advance a novel choice-theoretic model of “identity” based on the notions of categories and narratives. Identity is conceived as a matter of “reflexive perception” — how people understand themselves. Choosing an identity is equivalent to making a generalization about one’s past that highlights the most salient aspects of experience. When many individuals make a common choice in this regard, they embrace a collective identity which is dysfunctional if it is Pareto dominated by an alternative self-classificatory schema. Using a simple multi-stage risk sharing game, we explore conditions under which dysfunctional collective identities might be expected to emerge.
Rationality Of Belief. Or: Why Bayesianism Is Neither Necessary Nor Sufficient For Rationality, Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, David Schmeidler
Rationality Of Belief. Or: Why Bayesianism Is Neither Necessary Nor Sufficient For Rationality, Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, David Schmeidler
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Economic theory reduces the concept of rationality to internal consistency. The practice of economics, however, distinguishes between rational and irrational beliefs. There is therefore an interest in a theory of rational beliefs, and of the process by which beliefs are generated and justified. We argue that the Bayesian approach is unsatisfactory for this purpose, for several reasons. First, the Bayesian approach begins with a prior, and models only a very limited form of learning, namely, Bayesian updating. Thus, it is inherently incapable of describing the formation of prior beliefs. Second, there are many situations in which there is not sufficient …
Axiomatization Of An Exponential Similarity Function, Antoine Billot, Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler
Axiomatization Of An Exponential Similarity Function, Antoine Billot, Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable y based on certain characteristics x = ( x 1 ,…, x m ), and on a database consisting of n observations of ( x 1 ,…, x m ,y). A possible approach to combine past observations of x and y with the current values of x to generate an assessment of y is similarity-weighted averaging. It suggests that the predicted value of y , y s n +1, be the weighted average of all previously observed values y i , where the weight of y i is the similarity between …
Empirical Similarity, Itzhak Gilboa, Offer Lieberman, David Schmeidler
Empirical Similarity, Itzhak Gilboa, Offer Lieberman, David Schmeidler
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable Y p based on certain characteristics X p = ( X 1 p ,…, X m p ), and on a database consisting ( X 1 i ,…, X m i , Y i ) for i = 1,…, n . A possible approach to combine past observations of X and Y with the current values of X to generate an assessment of Y is similarity-weighted averaging. It suggests that the predicted value of Y , Y s p , be the weighted average of all previously observed values Y i …
Distribution And Politics: A Brief History And Prospect, John E. Roemer
Distribution And Politics: A Brief History And Prospect, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A brief, historical review of the study of the interdependency between politics and economic distribution is offered. While the impact of economic interests on politics has been acknowledged for thousands of years, and the impact of politics on distribution for hundreds, it is only in the last thirty years that formal models of the interdependency between economic distribution and politics have been formulated. A general model of political-economic equilibrium is proposed, in which political competition and economic distribution jointly determine each other. Several examples are given. The author proposes that political economy, conceived of as studying this process of joint …
Competitive Experimentation With Private Information, Giuseppe Moscarini, Francesco Squintani
Competitive Experimentation With Private Information, Giuseppe Moscarini, Francesco Squintani
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study a winner-take-all R&D race where firms are privately informed about the uncertain arrival rate of the invention. Due to the interdependent-value nature of the problem, the equilibrium displays a strong herding effect that distinguishes our framework from war-of-attrition models. Nonetheless, equilibrium expenditure in R&D is sub-optimal when the planner is sufficiently impatient. Pessimistic firms prematurely exit the race, so that the expected discounted amount of R&D activity is inefficiently low. This result stands in contrast to the overinvestment in research that is typical of winner-take-all R&D races without private information. We conclude that secrecy in R&D inefficiently slows …
The Folk Theorem In Dynastic Repeated Games, Luca Anderlini, Dino Gerardi, Roger Lagunoff
The Folk Theorem In Dynastic Repeated Games, Luca Anderlini, Dino Gerardi, Roger Lagunoff
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A canonical interpretation of an infinitely repeated game is that of a “dynastic” repeated game: a stage game repeatedly played by successive generations of finitely-lived players with dynastic preferences. These two models are in fact equivalent when the past history of play is observable to all players. In our model all players live one period and do not observe the history of play that takes place before their birth, but instead receive a private message from their immediate predecessors. Under very mild conditions, when players are sufficiently patient, all feasible payoff vectors (including those below the minmax) can be sustained …
Modeling Party Competition In General Elections, John E. Roemer
Modeling Party Competition In General Elections, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We survey critically the brief history of modeling party competition in general elections, beginning with the Hotelling-Downs model with a unidimensional policy space, and the Wittman model with endogenous parties, to the multi-dimensional citizen-candidate and PUNE models. Some applications of the newer models are discussed.
Effective Labor Regulation And Microeconomic Flexibility, Ricardo J. Caballero, Kevin N. Cowan, Eduardo Engel, Alejandro Micco
Effective Labor Regulation And Microeconomic Flexibility, Ricardo J. Caballero, Kevin N. Cowan, Eduardo Engel, Alejandro Micco
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Microeconomic flexibility is at the core of economic growth in modern market economies because it facilitates the process of creative-destruction, The main reason why this process is not infinitely fast, is the presence of adjustment costs, some of them technological, others institutional. Chief among the latter is labor market regulation. While few economists object to the hypothesis that labor market regulation hinders the process of creative-destruction, its empirical support is limited. In this paper we revisit this hypothesis, using a new sectoral panel for 60 countries and a methodology suitable for such a panel. We find that job security regulation …
Network Markets And Consumer Coordination, Attila Ambrus, Rossella Argenziano
Network Markets And Consumer Coordination, Attila Ambrus, Rossella Argenziano
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper assumes that groups of consumers in network markets can coordinate their choices when it is in their best interest to do so, and when coordination does not require communication. It is shown that multiple asymmetric networks can coexist in equilibrium if consumers have heterogeneous reservation values. A monopolist provider might choose to operate multiple networks to price differentiate consumers on both sides of the market. Competing network providers might operate networks such that one of them targets high reservation value consumers on one side of the market, while the other targets high reservation value consumers on the other …
Locational Competition And The Environment: Should Countries Harmonize Their Environmental Policies?, William D. Nordhaus
Locational Competition And The Environment: Should Countries Harmonize Their Environmental Policies?, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In debates about economic unification or trade liberalization, it is often asked whether harmonization should go beyond taxes and macroeconomic policies to include regulations, particularly environmental policy. This issue also arises when countries, states, and cities engage in competition for plants, jobs, or exports in what we might call “locational competition.” This essay analyzes locational competition with particular reference to environmental policy. The conclusions are the following: First, economic efficiency requires harmonization of policies for global environmental issues; second, for local public goods or externalities, there is a strong presumptive case against harmonization; and finally that a competitive “race to …