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Articles 1471 - 1500 of 2768
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Trending Time Series And Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present And Future Challenges, Peter C.B. Phillips
Trending Time Series And Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present And Future Challenges, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Some challenges for econometric research on trending time series are discussed in relation to some perceived needs of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy making.
Equivalence Of The Higher-Order Asymptotic Efficiency Of K-Step And Extremum Statistics, Donald W.K. Andrews
Equivalence Of The Higher-Order Asymptotic Efficiency Of K-Step And Extremum Statistics, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
It is well known that a one-step scoring estimator that starts from any N 1 /2 -consistent estimator has the same first-order asymptotic efficiency as the maximum likelihood estimator. This paper extends this result to k -step estimators and test statistics for k > 1, higher-order asymptotic efficiency, and general extremum estimators and test statistics. The paper shows that a k -step estimator has the same higher-order asymptotic efficiency, to any given order, as the extremum estimator towards which it is stepping, provided (i) k is sufficiently large, (ii) some smoothness and moment conditions hold, and (iii) a condition on the …
Modified Local Whittle Estimation Of The Memory Parameter In The Nonstationary Case, Katsumi Shimotsu, Peter C.B. Phillips
Modified Local Whittle Estimation Of The Memory Parameter In The Nonstationary Case, Katsumi Shimotsu, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Semiparametric estimation of the memory parameter is studied in models of fractional integration in the nonstationary case, and some new representation theory for the discrete Fourier transform of a fractional process is used to assist in the analysis. A limit theory is developed for an estimator of the memory parameter that covers a range of values of d commonly encountered in applied work with economic data. The new estimator is called the modified local Whittle estimator and employs a version of the Whittle likelihood based on frequencies adjacent to the origin and modified to take into account the form of …
Pooled Log Periodogram Regression, Katsumi Shimotsu, Peter C.B. Phillips
Pooled Log Periodogram Regression, Katsumi Shimotsu, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Estimation of the memory parameter in time series with long range dependence is considered. A pooled log periodogram regression estimator is proposed that utilizes a set of mL periodogram ordinates with L approaching infinity rather than m ordinates used in the conventional log periodogram estimator. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the pooled regression estimator are established. The pooled estimator is shown to have smaller variance but larger bias than the conventional log periodogram estimator. Finite sample performance is assessed in simulations, and the methods are illustrated in an empirical application with inflation and stock returns.
Savings And Portfolio Choice In A Two-Period Two-Asset Model, Saku Aura, Peter A. Diamond, John Geanakoplos
Savings And Portfolio Choice In A Two-Period Two-Asset Model, Saku Aura, Peter A. Diamond, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We extend Arrow’s analysis of portfolio choice in a one-period model to savings and portfolio choice in a two-period model.
Local Whittle Estimation In Nonstationary And Unit Root Cases, Katsumi Shimotsu, Peter C.B. Phillips
Local Whittle Estimation In Nonstationary And Unit Root Cases, Katsumi Shimotsu, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Asymptotic properties of the local Whittle estimator in the nonstationary case (d > 1/2) are explored. For 1/2 < d < 1, the estimator is shown to be consistent, and its limit distribution and the rate of convergence depend on the value of d . For d = 1, the limit distribution is mixed normal. For d > 1 and when the process has a linear trend, the estimator is shown to be inconsistent and to converge in probability to unity.
A Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy With Inheritance, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
A Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy With Inheritance, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
An overlapping generations model of an exchange economy is considered, with individuals having a finite expected life-span. Conditions concerning birth, death, inheritance and bequests are fully specified. Under such conditions, the existence of stationary Markov equilibrium is established in some generality, and several explicitly solvable examples are treated in detail.
Information And The Existence Of Stationary Markovian Equilibrium, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Information And The Existence Of Stationary Markovian Equilibrium, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We describe conditions for the existence of a stationary Markovian equilibrium when total production or total endowment is a random variable. Apart from regularity assumptions, there are two crucial conditions: (i) low information — agents are ignorant of both total endowment and their own endowments when they make decisions in a given period, and (ii) proportional endowments — the endowment of each agent is in proportion, possibly a random proportion, to the total endowment. When these conditions hold, there is a stationary equilibrium. When they do not hold, such equilibrium need not exist.
Rethinking Multiple Equilibria In Macroeconomic Modelling, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Rethinking Multiple Equilibria In Macroeconomic Modelling, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Are beliefs as indeterminate as auggested by models with multiple equilibria? Multiplicity of equilibria arise largely as the unintended consequence of two modelling assumptions — the fundamentals are assumed to be common knowledge, and economic agents know others’ actions in equilibrium. Both are questionable. When others’ actions are not known with certainty, such as when actions rely on noisy signals, self-fulfilling beliefs lead to a unique outcome determined by the fundamentals and the knowledges that others are rational. This paper illustrates this approach in the context of a model of bank runs and other similar applications. Such an approach places …
Social Security Investment In Equities In An Economy With Short-Term Production And Land, Peter A. Diamond, John Geanakoplos
Social Security Investment In Equities In An Economy With Short-Term Production And Land, Peter A. Diamond, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper explores the general equilibrium impact of social security portfolio diversification into private securities, either through the trust fund or via private accounts. The analysis depends critically on heterogeneity in saving, in production, in assets, and in taxes. Under fairly general assumptions we show that limited diversification increases a neutral social welfare function, increases interest rates, reduces the expected return on short-term equity (and thus the equity premium), decreases safe investment and increases risky investment. However, the effect on aggregate investment, long-term capital values, and the utility of young savers hinges on delicate assumptions about technology. Aggregate investment and …
A Bias-Reduced Log-Periodogram Regression Estimator For The Long-Memory Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
A Bias-Reduced Log-Periodogram Regression Estimator For The Long-Memory Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews, Patrik Guggenberger
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The widely used log-periodogram regression estimator of the long-memory parameter d proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) (GPH) has been criticized because of its finite-sample bias, see Agiakloglou, Newbold, and Wohar (1993). In this paper, we propose a simple bias-reduced log-periodogram regression estimator, ^d r , that eliminates the first- and higher-order biases of the GPH estimator. The bias-reduced estimator is the same as the GPH estimator except that one includes frequencies to the power 2 k for k = 1,…, r , for some positive integer r, as additional regressors in the pseudo-regression model that yields the GPH estimator. …
Cartoons Of The Variation Of Financial Prices And Of Brownian Motions In Multifractal Time, Benoit Mandelbrot
Cartoons Of The Variation Of Financial Prices And Of Brownian Motions In Multifractal Time, Benoit Mandelbrot
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This article describes a versatile family of functions increasingly roughened by successive interpolations. They provide models of the variation of financial prices. More importantly, they are helpful “cartoons” of Brownian motions in multifractal time, BMMT, which are better models described in the next article. Ordinary Brownian motion and two models the author proposed in the 1960s correspond to special cartoons. More general cartoons are richer in structure but (by choice) remain parsimonious and easily computed. Their outputs reproduce the main features of financial prices: continually varying volatility, discontinuity or concentration, and other events far outside the mildly behaving Brownian “norm.”
Inside And Outside Money, Gains To Trade, And Is-Lm, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Inside And Outside Money, Gains To Trade, And Is-Lm, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We build a one-period general equilibrium model with money. Equilibrium exists, and fiat money has positive value, as long as the ratio of outside money to inside money is less than the gains to trade available at autarky. We show that the nominal effects of government fiscal and monetary policy can be completely described by a diagram identical in form to the IS-LM curves introduced by Hicks to describe Keynes’ general theory. IS-LM analysis is thus not incompatible with full market clearing, multiple commodities, and heterogeneous households. We show that as the government deficit approaches a finite threshold, hyperinflation sets …
Optimal Scrutiny In Multi-Period Promotion Tournaments, Pradeep Dubey, Ori Haimanko
Optimal Scrutiny In Multi-Period Promotion Tournaments, Pradeep Dubey, Ori Haimanko
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Consider a principal who hires heterogeneous agents to work for him over T periods, without prior knowledge of their respective skills, and intends to promote one of them at the end. In each period the agents choose effort levels and produce random outputs, independently of each other, and are fully informed of the past history of outputs The principal’s major objective is to maximize the total expected output, but he may also put some weight on detecting the higher-skilled agent for promotion. To this end, he randomly samples n out of the T periods and awards the promotion to the …
Competitive Prizes: When Less Scrutiny Induces More Effort, Pradeep Dubey, Chien-Wei Wu
Competitive Prizes: When Less Scrutiny Induces More Effort, Pradeep Dubey, Chien-Wei Wu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider a principal who is keen to induce his agents to work at their maximal effort levels. To this end, he samples n days at random out of the T days on which they work, and awards a prize of B dollars to the most productive agent. The principal’s policy ( B,n ) induces a strategic game Γ( B,n ) between the agents. We show that to implement maximal effort levels weakly (or, strongly) as a strategic equilibrium (or, as dominant strategies) in Γ( B,n ), at the least cost B to himself, the principal must choose a small …
Inside And Outside Money, Gains To Trade, And Is-Lm, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Inside And Outside Money, Gains To Trade, And Is-Lm, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We build a one-period general equilibrium model with money. Equilibrium exists, and fiat money has positive value, as long as the ratio of outside money to inside money is less than the gains to trade available at autarky. We show that the nominal effects of government fiscal and monetary policy can be completely described by a diagram identical in form to the IS-LM curves introduced by Hicks to describe Keynes’ general theory. IS-LM analysis is thus not incompatible with full market clearing, multiple commodities, and heterogeneous households. We show that as the government deficit approaches a finite threshold, hyperinflation sets …
Estimated, Calibrated, And Optimal Interest Rate Rules, Ray C. Fair
Estimated, Calibrated, And Optimal Interest Rate Rules, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Estimated, calibrated, and optimal interest rate rules are examined for their ability to dampen economic fluctuations caused by random shocks. A tax rate rule is also considered. The results show that the estimated interest rate rule used in the paper is stable for the period beginning in 1954 except for the early Volcker period, although more observations, especially high inflation ones, are needed before much confidence can be placed on the results. The models used for the stabilization results are large scale structural macroeconometric models, and some of the results differ from those based on small models. For example, rules …
The Theory Of Money, Martin Shubik
The Theory Of Money, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Fiat money is a creation of both the state and society. Its value is supported by expectations which are conditioned by the dynamics of trust in government, the socio-economic structure and by outside events such as wars, plagues or political unrest. The micro-management of a dynamic economy is not far removed in difficulty from the micro-management of the weather. However, money and the financial institutions and instruments of a modern economy provide the means to influence expectations and bound behavior. Paper money emerges as a virtual commodity. The dynamics of the economy permits it to serve as an imaginary gold. …
Asymptotics In Minimum Distance From Independence Estimation, Donald J. Brown, Marten H. Wegkamp
Asymptotics In Minimum Distance From Independence Estimation, Donald J. Brown, Marten H. Wegkamp
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper we introduce a family of minimum distance from independence estimators, suggested by Manski’s minimum mean square from independence estimator. We establish strong consistency, asymptotic normality and consistency of resampling estimates of the distribution and variance of these estimators. For Manski’s estimator we derive both strong consistency and asymptotic normality.
Bootstrap Unit Root Tests In Panels With Cross-Sectional Dependency, Yoosoon Chang
Bootstrap Unit Root Tests In Panels With Cross-Sectional Dependency, Yoosoon Chang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We apply bootstrap methodology to unit root tests for dependent panels with N cross-sectional units and T time series observations. More specifically, we let each panel be driven by a general linear process which may be different across cross-sectional units, and approximate it by a finite order autoregressive integrated process of order increasing with T . As we allow the dependency among the innovations generating the individual panels, we construct our unit root tests from the estimation of the system of the entire N panels. The limit distributions of the tests are derived by passing T to infinity, with N …
Confidence Intervals, Donald W.K. Andrews, Moshe Buchinsky
Confidence Intervals, Donald W.K. Andrews, Moshe Buchinsky
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers the problem of choosing the number bootstrap repetitions B to use with the BC a bootstrap confidence intervals introduced by Efron (1987). Because the simulated random variables are ancillary, we seek a choice of B that yields a confidence interval that is close to the ideal bootstrap confidence interval for which B = ∞. We specifiy a three-step method of choosing B that ensures that the lower and upper lengths of the confidence interval deviate from those of the ideal bootstrap confidence interval by at most a small percentage with high probability.
Default In A General Equilibrium Model With Incomplete Markets, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Default In A General Equilibrium Model With Incomplete Markets, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets (GEI) to allow for default. The equilibrating variables include aggregate default levels, as well as prices of assets and commodities. Default can be either strategic, or due to ill-fortune. It can be caused by events directly affecting the borrower, or indirectly as part of a chain reaction in which a borrower cannot repay because he himself has not been repaid. Each asset is defined by its promises A , the penalties lambda for default, and the limitations Q on its sale. The model is thus named GE ( A …
Information Acquisition And Efficient Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Information Acquisition And Efficient Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider a general mechanism design setting where each agent can acquire (covert) information before participating in the mechanism. The central question is whether a mechanism exists which provides the efficient incentives for information acquisition ex-ante and implements the efficient allocation conditional on the private information ex-post. It is shown that in every private value environment the Vickrey-Groves-Clark mechanism guarantees both ex-ante as well as ex-post efficiency. In contract, with common values, ex-ante and ex-post efficiency cannot be reconciled in general. Sufficient conditions in terms of sub- and supermodularity are provided when (all) ex-post efficient mechanisms lead to private under- …
Bargaining And Markets: Complexity And The Walrasian Outcome, Hamid Sabourian
Bargaining And Markets: Complexity And The Walrasian Outcome, Hamid Sabourian
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Rubinstein and Wolinsky (1990b) consider a simple decentralized market in which agents either meet randomly or choose their partners volunatarily and bargain over the terms on which they are willing to trade. Intuition suggests that if there are no transaction costs, the outcome of this matching and bargaining game should be the unique competitive equilibrium. This does not happen. In fact, Rubinstein and Wolinsky show that any price can be sustained as a sequential equilibrium of this game. In this paper, I consider Rubinstein and Wolinsky’s model and show that if the complexity costs of implementing strategies enter players’ preferences …
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Creditors of a distressed borrower face a coordination problem. Even if the fundamentals are sound, fear of premature foreclosure by others may lead to pre-emptive action, undermining the project. Recognition of this problem lies behind corporate bankruptcy provisions across the world, and it has been identified as a culprit in international financial crises, but has received scant attention from the literature on debt pricing. The apparent multiplicity of equilibria is a barrier to development of this issue in asset pricing, but this multiplicity is only apparent. Without common knowledge of fundamentals, the incidence of failure is uniquely determined provided that …
Discrete Fourier Transforms Of Fractional Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips
Discrete Fourier Transforms Of Fractional Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Discrete Fourier transforms (dft’s) of fractional processes are studied and an exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data. The new representation gives the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process, and is particularly useful in analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the dft and periodogram in the nonstationary case when the memory parameter d > 1/2. Various asymptotic approximations are suggested. It is shown that smoothed periodogram spectral estimates remain consistent for frequencies away from the origin in the nonstationary case provided the memory parameter d < 1. When d = 1, the spectral estimates are inconsistent and converge weakly to random variates. Applications of the theory to log periodogram regression and local Whittle estimation of the memory parameter are discussed and some modified versions of these procedures are suggested.
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Coordination Risk And The Price Of Debt, Stephen Morris, Hyun Song Shin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Creditors of a distressed borrower face a coordination problem. Even if the fundamentals are sound, fear of premature foreclosure by others may lead to pre-emptive action, undermining the project. Recognition of this problem lies behind corporate bankruptcy provisions across the world, and it has been identified as a culprit in international financial crises, but has received scant attention from the literature on debt pricing. Without common knowledge of fundamentals, the incidence of failure is uniquely determined provided that private information is precise enough. This affords a way to price the coordination failure. Comparative statics on the unique equilibrium provides several …
Nonlinear Econometric Models With Cointegrated And Deterministically Trending Regressors, Yoosoon Chang, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Nonlinear Econometric Models With Cointegrated And Deterministically Trending Regressors, Yoosoon Chang, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for a general class of nonlinear nonstationary regressions, extending earlier work by Phillips and Hansen (1990) on linear cointegrating regressions. The model considered accommodates a linear time trend and stationary regressors, as well as multiple I(1) regressors. We establish consistency and derive the limit distribution of the nonlinear least squares estimator. The estimator is consistent under fairly general conditions but the convergence rate and the limiting distribution are critically dependent upon the type of the regression function. For integrable regression functions, the parameter estimates converge at a reduced n 1 /4 rate and have …
Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips
Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Log periodogram (LP) regression is shown to be consistent and to have a mixed normal limit distribution when the memory parameter d = 1. Gaussian errors are not required. Tests of d = 1 based on LP regression are consistent against d < 1 alternatives but inconsistent against d > 1 alternatives. A test based on a modified LP regression that is consistent in both directions is provided.
Maximum Likelihood Estimation In Panels With Incidental Trends, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Peter C.B. Phillips
Maximum Likelihood Estimation In Panels With Incidental Trends, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
It is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator of a local to unity parameter can be consistently estimated with panel data when the cross section observations are independent. Consistency applies when there are no deterministic trends or when there is a homogeneous deterministic trend in the panel model. When there are heterogeneous deterministic trends the panel MLE of the local to unity parameter is inconsistent. This outcome provides a new instance of inconsistent ML estimation in dynamic panels, and, unlike earlier results of this type, applies when both T approaches infinity and N approaches infinity.