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Articles 151 - 180 of 2768
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Is Habit A Powerful Policy Instrument To Induce Prosocial Behavioral Change?, Johann Caro-Burnett, Judith A. Chevalier, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Is Habit A Powerful Policy Instrument To Induce Prosocial Behavioral Change?, Johann Caro-Burnett, Judith A. Chevalier, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Recent literature suggests the power of interventions to change habits. In a dense slum in Nairobi, we adopt best practices from the habit literature to encourage toilet use instead of alternatives that damage community health. Offering subsidies increased toilet usage, effects continue for one month after discounts end, but erode thereafter. Treatments designed to induce habit formation (marketing, time-limited discounts encouraging repetition, discounts for longer periods, targeting `habitual types’) generated no greater persistence. We see some persistent behavior change due to learning about the new toilet option. It appears difficult to induce pro-social behavior without private benefits through habit change.
Welfare Comparisons For Biased Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Welfare Comparisons For Biased Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases, i.e., deviations from correct Bayesian updating. Given a true signal distribution, we deem one bias more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decision problems. We characterize this ranking in static (one signal) and dynamic (many signals) settings. While the static characterization compares posteriors signal-by-signal, the dynamic characterization employs an “efficiency index” quantifying the speed of belief convergence. Our results yield welfare-founded quantifications of the severity of well-documented biases. Moreover, the static and dynamic rankings can conflict, and “smaller” biases can be worse in dynamic settings.
Welfare Comparisons For Biased Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Welfare Comparisons For Biased Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases, i.e., deviations from correct Bayesian updating. Given a true signal distribution, we deem one bias more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decision problems. We characterize this ranking in static (one signal) and dynamic (many signals) settings. While the static characterization compares posteriors signal-by-signal, the dynamic characterization employs an “efficiency index” quantifying the speed of belief convergence. Our results yield welfare-founded quantifications of the severity of well-documented biases. Moreover, the static and dynamic rankings can disagree, and “smaller” biases can be worse in dynamic settings.
Panel Threshold Regression With Unobserved Individual-Specific Threshold Effects, Ping Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shengjie Hong
Panel Threshold Regression With Unobserved Individual-Specific Threshold Effects, Ping Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shengjie Hong
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the estimation and inferences in panel threshold regression with unobserved individual-specific threshold effects which is important from the practical perspective and is a distinguishing feature from traditional linear panel data models. It is shown that the within-regime differencing in the static model or the within-regime first-differencing in the dynamic model cannot generate consistent estimators of the threshold, so the correlated random effects models are suggested to handle the endogeneity in such general panel threshold models. We provide a unified estimation and inference framework that is valid for both the static and dynamic models and regardless of whether …
Optimal Information Disclosure In Auctions, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris, Constantine Sorokin, Eyal Winter
Optimal Information Disclosure In Auctions, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, Stephen Morris, Constantine Sorokin, Eyal Winter
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We characterize the revenue-maximizing information structure in the second price auction. The seller faces a classic economic trade-o¤: providing more information improves the efficiency of the allocation but also creates higher information rents for bidders. The information disclosure policy that maximizes the revenue of the seller is to fully reveal low values (where competition will be high) but to pool high values (where competition will be low). The size of the pool is determined by a critical quantile that is independent of the distribution of values and only dependent on the number of bidders. We discuss how this policy provides …
A Characterization For Optimal Bundling Of Products With Inter-Dependent Values, Soheil Ghili
A Characterization For Optimal Bundling Of Products With Inter-Dependent Values, Soheil Ghili
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies optimal bundling of products with inter-dependent values. I show that, under some conditions, a firm optimally chooses to sell only the full bundle of a given set of products if and only if the optimal sales volume of the full bundle is larger than the optimal sales volume for any smaller bundle. I then provide an interpretation of this characterization based on (i) the magnitude of the variation across consumers in how complementary they find different products, and (ii) how this variation correlates with price sensitivity.
Bayesian Persuasion With Lie Detection, Florian Ederer, Weicheng Min
Bayesian Persuasion With Lie Detection, Florian Ederer, Weicheng Min
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider a model of Bayesian persuasion in which the Receiver can detect lies with positive probability. We show that the Sender lies more when the lie detection probability increases. As long as the lie detection probability is sufficiently small the Sender's and the Receiver's equilibrium payoffs are unaffected by the lie detection technology because the Sender simply compensates by lying more. When the lie detection probability is sufficiently high, the Sender's (Receiver's) equilibrium payoff decreases (increases) with the lie detection probability.
Trade And Informality In The Presence Of Labor Market Frictions And Regulations, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
Trade And Informality In The Presence Of Labor Market Frictions And Regulations, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects economic outcomes in the presence of informality. We show that: (1) Trade openness unambiguously decreases informality in the tradable sector, but has ambiguous effects on aggregate informality. (2) The productivity gains from trade are understated when the informal sector is omitted. (3) Trade openness results in large welfare gains even when informality is repressed. (4) Repressing …
Mixed Bundling In Oligopoly Markets, Jidong Zhou
Mixed Bundling In Oligopoly Markets, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper proposes a framework for studying competitive mixed bundling with an arbitrary number of firms. We examine both a firm’s incentive to introduce mixed bundling and equilibrium tariffs when all firms adopt the mixed-bundling strategy. In the duopoly case, relative to separate sales, mixed bundling has ambiguous impacts on prices, profit and consumer surplus; with many firms, however, mixed bundling typically lowers all prices, harms firms and benefits consumers.
Consumer Information And The Limits To Competition, Mark Armstrong, Jidong Zhou
Consumer Information And The Limits To Competition, Mark Armstrong, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies competition between firms when consumers observe a private signal of their preferences over products. Within the class of signal structures which induce pure-strategy pricing equilibria, we derive signal structures which are optimal for firms and those which are optimal for consumers. The firm-optimal policy amplifies underlying product differentiation, thereby relaxing competition, while ensuring consumers purchase their preferred product, thereby maximizing total welfare. The consumer-optimal policy dampens differentiation, which intensifies competition, but induces some consumers to buy their less-preferred product. Our analysis sheds light on the limits to competition when the information possessed by consumers can be designed …
Take A Break!...Or More., Maria Saez Marti
Take A Break!...Or More., Maria Saez Marti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I investigate the optimal timing and length of breaks in a model with fatigue. A break’s length determines the worker’s productivity once work is resumed. I show that all breaks should be identical, equally spaced and long enough to fully recover productivity. When taking breaks is costless, the higher the number of breaks the better. Otherwise, the optimal number is finite and those workers whose productivity falls more at the beginning of the day should take more breaks. Workaholics take their breaks too early and make them too short, from the employers’ viewpoint. The opposite is true for leisure-oriented workers.
When The Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, And Parents In Pandemic Time, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti
When The Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, And Parents In Pandemic Time, Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti, Fabrizio Zilibotti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
What are the effects of school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic on children’s education? Online education is an imperfect substitute for in-person learning, particularly for children from low-income families. Peer effects also change: schools allow children from different socio-economic backgrounds to mix together, and this effect is lost when schools are closed. Another factor is the response of parents, some of whom compensate for the changed environment through their own efforts, while others are unable to do so. We examine the interaction of these factors with the aid of a structural model of skill formation. We find that school closures …
A Model Of Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou
A Model Of Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose a model of how multiple societies respond to a common crisis. A government faces a “damned-either-way” policy-making dilemma: aggressive intervention contains the crisis, but the resulting good outcome makes people skeptical of the costly response; light intervention worsens the crisis and causes the government to be faulted for not doing enough. This dilemma can be mitigated for the society that encounters the crisis first if another society faces the same crisis afterward. Our model predicts that the later society does not necessarily perform better despite having more information, while the earlier society might benefit from a dynamic counterfactual …
A Model Of Sequential Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou
A Model Of Sequential Crisis Management, Fei Li, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We propose a model of how multiple societies respond to a common crisis. A government faces a "damned-either-way" policymaking dilemma: aggressive intervention contains the crisis, but the resulting good outcome makes people skeptical about the costly response; light intervention worsens the crisis and causes the government to be faulted for not doing enough. When multiple societies encounter the crisis sequentially, due to this policymaking dilemma, late societies may underperform despite having more information, while early societies can benefit from a dynamic counterfactual effect.
Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou
Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Open banking facilitates data sharing consented by customers who generate the data, with a regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer data enables better borrower screening or targeting by fintech lenders. Open banking could make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers could choose whether to share their data. We highlight the importance of equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. When data sharing triggers privacy concerns by facilitating exploitative targeted loans, the equilibrium sign-up population …
Mothers’ Social Networks And Socioeconomic Gradients Of Isolation, Alison Andrew, Orazio P. Attanasio, Britta Augsburg, Jere Behrman, Monimalika Day, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir, Angus Phimister
Mothers’ Social Networks And Socioeconomic Gradients Of Isolation, Alison Andrew, Orazio P. Attanasio, Britta Augsburg, Jere Behrman, Monimalika Day, Pamela Jervis, Costas Meghir, Angus Phimister
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Social connections are fundamental to human wellbeing. This paper examines the social networks of young married women in rural Odisha, India.. This is a group, for whom highly-gendered norms around marriage, mobility, and work are likely to shape opportunities to form and maintain meaningful ties with other women. We track the social networks of 2,170 mothers over four years, and find a high degree of isolation. Wealthier women and women more-advantaged castes have smaller social networks than their less-advantaged peers. These gradients are primarily driven by the fact that more-advantaged women are less likely to know other women within their …
Aggregate Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis Of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models, Rodrigo Adão, Costas Arkolakis, Sharat Ganapati
Aggregate Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis Of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models, Rodrigo Adão, Costas Arkolakis, Sharat Ganapati
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We measure the role of firm heterogeneity in counterfactual predictions of monopolistic competition trade models without parametric restrictions on the distribution of firm fundamentals. We show that two bilateral elasticity functions are sufficient to nonparametrically compute the counterfactual aggregate impact of trade shocks, and recover changes in economic fundamentals from observed data. These functions are identified from two semiparametric gravity equations governing the impact of bilateral trade costs on the extensive and intensive margins of firm-level exports. Applying our methodology, we estimate elasticity functions that imply an impact of trade costs on trade flows that falls when more firms serve …
Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou
Open Banking: Credit Market Competition When Borrowers Own The Data, Zhiguo He, Jing Huang, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Open banking facilitates data sharing consented to by customers who generate the data, with the regulatory goal of promoting competition between traditional banks and challenger fintech entrants. We study lending market competition when sharing banks’ customer transaction data enables better borrower screening. Open banking can make the entire financial industry better off yet leave all borrowers worse off, even if borrowers have the control of whether to share their banking data. We highlight the importance of the equilibrium credit quality inference from borrowers’ endogenous sign-up decisions. We also study extensions with fintech affinities and data sharing on borrower preferences.
Improved Information In Search Markets, Jidong Zhou
Improved Information In Search Markets, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
How will an improved information environment affects competition and market performance when consumers face search frictions? This paper provides a unified way to model information improvement that makes the search pool more ``selective" (e.g., due to personalized recommendations), or more ``informative" (e.g., due to the availability of more detailed product information). Information improvement tends to induce consumers to search less, intensify price competition and benefit consumers, if the search friction is small, or if information improvement truncates the match utility distribution from below. More generally, however, it is also possible for information improvement to raise the market price and harm …
Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair
Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations—large wealth effects on household expenditures.
Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair
Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations—large wealth effects on household expenditures. In explaining the 2008-2009 recession detailed financial variables such as credit-constraint variables are not …
Improved Information In Search Markets, Jidong Zhou
Improved Information In Search Markets, Jidong Zhou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies how an improved information environment affects consumer search and firm competition. We find conditions for information improvement to have unambiguous impacts on search duration, price and consumer welfare. In many cases consumers benefit from information improvement regardless of how it affects the market price, but there are also cases where information improvement raises price significantly so that consumers suffer from it. Our model provides a unified way to consider the market implications of various types of information improvement such as search advertising, personalized recommendations, filtering, and VR shopping technology.
Forecasting Economic Activity Using The Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications For New Zealand, Australia And The Us, Todd Henry, Peter C.B. Phillips
Forecasting Economic Activity Using The Yield Curve: Quasi-Real-Time Applications For New Zealand, Australia And The Us, Todd Henry, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Inversion of the yield curve has come to be viewed as a leading recession indicator. Unsurprisingly, some recent instances of inversion have attracted attention from economic commentators and policymakers about possible impending recessions. Using a variety of time series models and recent innovations in econometric method, this paper conducts quasi-real-time forecasting exercises to investigate whether the predictive capability of the yield curve extends to forecasting economic activity in general and whether removing the term premium component from yields affects forecast accuracy. The empirical findings for the US, Australia, and New Zealand show that forecast performance is not improved either by …
Selling Consumer Data For Profit: Optimal Market-Segmentation Design And Its Consequences, Kai Hao Yang
Selling Consumer Data For Profit: Optimal Market-Segmentation Design And Its Consequences, Kai Hao Yang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A data broker sells market segmentations created by consumer data to a producer with private production cost who sells a product to a unit mass of consumers with heterogeneous values. In this setting, I completely characterize the revenue-maximizing mechanisms for the data broker. In particular, every optimal mechanism induces quasi-perfect price discrimination. That is, the data broker sells the producer a market segmentation described by a cost-dependent cutoff, such that all the consumers with values above the cutoff end up buying and paying their values while the rest of consumers do not buy. The characterization of optimal mechanisms leads to …
Identification And Inference In First-Price Auctions With Risk Averse Bidders And Selective Entry, Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu
Identification And Inference In First-Price Auctions With Risk Averse Bidders And Selective Entry, Xiaohong Chen, Matthew Gentry, Tong Li, Jingfeng Lu
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study identification and inference in first-price auctions with risk averse bidders and selective entry, building on a flexible entry and bidding framework we call the Affiliated Signal with Risk Aversion (AS-RA) model. Assuming that the econometrician observes either exogenous variation in the number of potential bidders (N) or a continuous instrument (z) shifting opportunity costs of entry, we provide a sharp characterization of the nonparametric restrictions implied by equilibrium bidding. Given variation in either competition or costs, this characterization implies that risk neutrality is nonparametrically testable in the sense that if bidders are strictly risk averse, then no risk …
Consistent Misspecification Testing In Spatial Autoregressive Models, Jungyoon Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi
Consistent Misspecification Testing In Spatial Autoregressive Models, Jungyoon Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips, Francesca Rossi
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Spatial autoregressive (SAR) and related models offer flexible yet parsimonious ways to model spatial or network interaction. SAR specifications typically rely on a particular parametric functional form and an exogenous choice of the so-called spatial weight matrix with only limited guidance from theory in making these specifications. The choice of a SAR model over other alternatives, such as spatial Durbin (SD) or spatial lagged X (SLX) models, is often arbitrary, raising issues of potential specification error. To address such issues, this paper develops an omnibus specification test within the SAR framework that can detect general forms of misspecification including that …
Optimally Stubborn, Anna Sanktjohanser
Optimally Stubborn, Anna Sanktjohanser
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I consider a bargaining game with two types of players – rational and stubborn. Rational players choose demands at each point in time. Stubborn players are restricted to choose from the set of “insistent” strategies that always make the same demand and never accept anything less. However, their initial choice of demand is unrestricted. I characterize the equilibria of this game. I show that while pooling equilibria exist, fully separating equilibria do not. Relative to the case with exogenous behavioral types, strong behavioral predictions emerge: in the limit, players randomize over at most two demands. However, unlike in a world …
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The propensity of consumers to engage in word-of-mouth (WOM) differs after good versus bad experiences, which can result in positive or negative selection of user-generated reviews. We show how the dispersion of consumer beliefs about quality (brand strength), informativeness of good and bad experiences, and price can affect selection of WOM in equilibrium. WOM is costly: Early adopters talk only if they can affect the receiver’s purchase. Under homogeneous beliefs, only negative WOM can arise. Under heterogeneous beliefs, the type of WOM depends on the informativeness of the experiences. We use data from Yelp.com to validate our predictions.
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
When Do Consumers Talk?, Ishita Chakraborty, Joyee Deb, Aniko Öry (Oery)
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The propensity of consumers to engage in word-of-mouth (WOM) can differ after good versus bad experiences. This can result in positive or negative selection of user-generated reviews. We show how the strength of brand image - determined by the dispersion of consumer beliefs about quality - and the informativeness of good and bad experiences impact the selection of WOM in equilibrium. Our premise is that WOM is costly: Early adopters talk only if their information is instrumental for the receiver’s purchase decision. If the brand image is strong, i.e., consumers have close to homogeneous beliefs about quality, then only negative …
Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson
Heterogeneous Paths Of Industrialization, Federico Huneeus, Richard Rogerson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Industrialization experiences differ significantly across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the manufacturing sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for a large share of the …