Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Thresholds And Drivers Of Coral Calcification Responses To Climate Change, Niklas Kornder, Bernhard Riegl, Joana Figueiredo

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Increased temperature and CO₂ levels are considered key drivers of coral reef degradation. However, individual assessments of ecological responses (calcification) to these stressors are often contradicting. To detect underlying drivers of heterogeneity in coral calcification responses, we developed a procedure for the inclusion of stress–effect relationships in ecological meta‐analyses. We applied this technique to a dataset of 294 empirical observations from 62 peer‐reviewed publications testing individual and combined effects of elevated temperature and pCO₂ on coral calcification. Our results show an additive interaction between warming and acidification, which reduces coral calcification by 20% when pCO₂ levels exceed …

Natural And Managed Watersheds Show Similar Responses To Recent Climate Change, Darren L. Ficklin, John T. Abatzoglou, Scott M. Robeson, Sarah E. Null, Jason H. Knouft

Watershed Sciences Faculty Publications

Changes in climate are driving an intensification of the hydrologic cycle and leading to alterations of natural streamflow regimes. Human disturbances such as dams, land-cover change, and water diversions are thought to obscure climate signals in hydrologic systems. As a result, most studies of changing hydroclimatic conditions are limited to areas with natural streamflow. Here, we compare trends in observed streamflow from natural and human-modified watersheds in the United States and Canada for the 1981–2015 water years to evaluate whether comparable responses to climate change are present in both systems. We find that patterns and magnitudes of trends in median …

Assessing Potential Winter Weather Response To Climate Change And Implications For Tourism In The U.S. Great Lakes And Midwest, Natalie Chin, Kyuhun Byun, Alan F. Hamlet, Keith A. Cherkauer

School of Agricultural & Biological Engineering Faculty Publications

Study Region: Eight U.S. states bordering the North American Laurentian Great Lakes.

Study Focus: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulations, based on data from an en- semble of atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), were used to quantify potential climate change impacts on winter weather and hydrology in the study re- gion and understand implications for its tourism sector.

New Hydrologic Insights for the Region: By the 2080s, climate change could result in winters that are shorter by over a month, reductions of over a month in days …

Coastal Wetland Dynamics Under Sea-Level Rise And Wetland Restoration In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Using Bayesian Multilevel Models And A Web Tool, Tyler Hardy

Master's Theses

There is currently a lack of modeling framework to predict how relative sea-level rise (SLR), combined with restoration activities, affects landscapes of coastal wetlands with uncertainties accounted for at the entire northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). I developed such a modeling framework – Bayesian multi-level models to study the spatial pattern of wetland loss in the NGOM, driven by relative RSLR, vegetation productivity, tidal range, coastal slope, and wave height – all interacting with river-borne sediment availability, indicated by hydrological regimes. These interactions have not been comprehensively investigated before. I further modified this model to assess the efficacy of restoration …

Estimating Adaptation To Climate Change In Groundwater Irrigation, James Keeler

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Understanding the adaptive capacity of irrigated agriculture, including to what extent producers adjust irrigation choices along the intensive and extensive margins, is vital to the development of accurate and holistic estimates of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and the sustainability of water-related ecosystem services. This thesis proposes and implements a natural experiment using statistical matching methods to estimate how producers adjust groundwater extraction, irrigated crop acreage, and irrigation technology in response to long-term changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration. Results from groundwater irrigated fields in Kansas suggest that intensive and extensive margin water use adaptations are generally limited …

High Net Loss Of Intertidal Wetland Coverage In A Maine Estuary By Year 2100, Jack R. Mclachlan

Biology and Ecology Faculty Scholarship

Rising sea levels and coastal land use are predicted to synergistically impact coastal wetlands by reducing their extent and ecosystem functioning through a process known as “coastal squeeze”. Impervious surfaces associated with coastal development prevent the natural process of wetland migration, whereby intertidal wetland area is lost at its seaward edge to rising low water lines, but is replaced by eroding uplands and accumulating new wetland at its landward edge. As these constructed surfaces prevent the replacement of lost wetland, intertidal wetlands are “squeezed” by rising sea levels until they disappear. This study uses geographic information system (GIS) to predict …

Review Of Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards And Risk Reduction In The Modern World, Kira H. Hamman

Numeracy

Timothy H. Dixon. 2017. Curbing Catastrophe: Natural Hazards and Risk Reduction in the Modern World. (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press) 300 pp. ISBN 978-1108113663.

In Curbing Catastrophe, Timothy H. Dixon explores commonalities among natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the meltdown at Fukushima. He identifies communication failure between scientists and policy makers as a major culprit in the devastation that results from such events and offers strategies for improving that communication. He includes optional in-depth scientific and quantitative examinations of the events and the resulting devastation, making the book appropriate for use …

An Interdisciplinary Approach To Understanding Predator-Prey Relationships In A Changing Ocean: From System Design To Education, Ileana M. Freytes-Ortiz

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is ecologically and socially complex, deemed the most important issue of our generation. Through this dissertation I have approached climate change research through an interdisciplinary perspective, investigating how this phenomenon will affect marine ecological systems, how we can better develop experimental systems to answer ecological questions, and how we can effectively educate about this issue.

In Chapter 2, I provided accessible alternatives for researching the effects of climate change (elevated temperatures and pCO2) on marine ecosystems. I designed, built, and troubleshooted two accurate and inexpensive climate-controlled experimental systems capable of maintaining target conditions: a temperature-controlled system and an …

Evaluating 21st Century Climate Change For Bolivia: A Comprehensive Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Using The Wrf Regional Climate Model, Azar Mohammad Abadi

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Bolivia is a low-latitude, developing country at grave risk for the effects of human-induced climate changes. This means evaluating the consequences of projected future climate changes is of significant importance. Unfortunately, the complex topography and high elevation of much of the country pose particular challenges, as these effects cannot be suitably resolved at the approximately 100 km spatial resolution of current global climate models (GCM). Therefore, a comprehensive suite of high-resolution climate change simulations was made focused on Bolivia are run using three different GCMs with three different emission scenarios for each to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) …

The Melting ‘Crown Of The Continent’: Visual History Of Glacier National Park, Dori L. Gorczyca, Salma Monani, Sarah M. Principato

Environmental Studies Faculty Publications

Glacier National Park (GNP), located in northwest Montana, US, was signed into existence on 11 May 1910 by then President William Howard Taft. Conservationist George Bird Grinnell was instrumental in lobbying for the park’s creation and negotiated the sale with the Blackfeet Indians. As an editor of the outdoor magazine Field and Stream, Grinnell learned about the region from writer James Willard Schultz and made his first visit there in 1885. Enticed and amazed by the glaciers of the area, the high Rocky Mountain alpine terrain, and the flora and fauna that thrived here, Grinnell advocated for the creation …

How Does Climate Change Affect Endophytic Fungi?, Amber Toussaint, Natalie Christian, Katy Heath

PRECS student projects

Plant-associated microorganisms can have major effects on plant health, but climate change can affect plant microbiomes. While it is unknown how climate change will affect aboveground plant-associated microorganisms, such as foliar endophytic fungi, we hypothesize that increased CO₂ concentrations will increase species richness and diversity in endophytic fungal communities, because increased plant photosynthesis under elevated CO₂ will increase the resources available to the fungi.

"Waste Is Not Just Waste Anymore": Deconstructing The Relationship Between Sustainable Waste Prevention And Individual Socio-Demographic Characteristics (The Juxtaposition Of Ushongo Mtoni Village And Moshi Urban, Tanzania), Mahalia Smith

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

I am going to tell you a story about humans — their lives, livelihoods, environments, and their individual relationships to sustainable waste prevention. As developing countries, such as Tanzania experience economic growth, waste overflow and proper waste disposal become even more arduous challenges. Thus, it is becoming increasingly important to explore sustainable solutions such as waste prevention. Through conducting semi-structured interviews in two distinctly unique locations, Moshi Urban of the Kilimanjaro Region and Ushongo Village on the coast of Tanga Region, Tanzania, I explored how levels of awareness and involvement in sustainable waste prevention practices, specifically reducing, reusing, and recycling, …

Surface Water And Groundwater In A Changing Climate: Applications Of Hydrogeophysics And Trend Analysis To Understand Hydrologic Systems, Robin Glas

Dissertations - ALL

Water resources are being impacted by anthropogenic climate change worldwide, the nature and severity of that impact is determined by geographic position, local topography, underlying geology, and human influences such as land use, water availability, and water regulation. As global temperatures continue to rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative that we better understand how water availability fluctuates with changes in air temperature, rainfall, snowpack, and glacial ice. This dissertation provides an analysis of the hydrologic response to both short-term and long-term climatic changes in both humid-temperate and semi-arid tropical regions. Within the tropical alpine zone, shifts in …

Climate And Plant Controls On Soil Organic Matter In Coastal Wetlands, Michael J. Osland, Christopher A. Gabler, James B. Grace, Richard H. Day, Meagan L. Mccoy, Jennie L. Mcleod, Andrew S. From, Nicholas M. Enwright, Laura C. Feher, Camille L. Stagg

School of Earth, Environmental, and Marine Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon‐rich ecosystems on Earth. Long‐term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is a need to advance understanding of environmental controls on wetland SOM. Here, we investigated the influence of four soil formation factors: climate, biota, parent materials, and topography. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, we collected wetland plant and soil data across elevation and zonation gradients within 10 …

Relationship Between Ocean-Atmospheric Climate Variables And Regional Streamflow Of The Conterminous United States, Swastik Bhandari, Ajay Kalra, Kazi Tamaddun, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Understanding the interconnections between oceanic-atmospheric climate variables and regional streamflow of the conterminous United States may aid in improving regional long lead-time streamflow forecasting. The current research evaluates the time-lagged relationship between streamflow of six geographical regions defined from National Climate Assessment and sea surface temperature (SST), 500-mbar geopotential height (Z500), 500-mbar specific humidity (SH500), and 500-mbar east-west wind (U500) of the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean using singular value decomposition (SVD). The spatio-temporal correlation between streamflow and SST was developed first from SVD and thus obtained correlation was later associated with Z500, SH500, and U500 separately to evaluate the …

A Sedimentological Record Of Early Miocene Ice Advance And Retreat, And-2a Drill Hole, Mcmurdo Sound, Antarctica, B. D. Field, G. H. Browne, Christopher R. Fielding, Fabio Florindo, David M. Harwood, Shelley Judge, Lawrence Krissek, Kurt S. Panter, Sandra Passchier, Stephen Pekar, Sonia Sandroni, Franco M. Talarico

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The lowest 501 m (∼1139–638 m) of the AND-2A core from southern McMurdo Sound is the most detailed and complete record of early Miocene sediments in Antarctica and indicates substantial variability in Antarctic ice sheet activity during early Miocene time. There are two main pulses of diamictite accumulation recorded in the core, and three significant intervals with almost no coarse clasts. Each diamictite package comprises several sequences consistent with ice advance-retreat episodes.

The oldest phase of diamictite deposition, Composite Sequence 1 (CS1), has evidence for grounded ice at the drill site and has been dated around 20.2–20.1 Ma. It likely …

Farm Service Agency Employee Intentions To Use Weather And Climate Data In Professional Services, Rachel E. Schattman, Gabrielle Roesch-Mcnally, Sarah Wiener, Meredith T. Niles, David Y. Hollinger

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

This is a work of the U.S. Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.. Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of …

Third-Person Perception Of Science Narratives: The Case Of Climate Change Denial, Michael Field Dahlstrom, Sonny Rosenthal

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

Science communicators are increasingly recognizing the potential of narratives to reach and influence audiences. However, do audiences recognize and consider this tactic when evaluating how such messages influence themselves and others? This study compares third-person perceptions of persuasive narrative and nonnarrative messages in a climate change context. Results suggest that individuals are aware of the influence of narratives and are able to resist this influence, but this is only when they perceive a message as having negative influence. Otherwise, individuals underestimate the influence of narratives on themselves. These findings add an audience-centered perspective to the current discussions on incorporating narratives …

Climate Change And Technology: Examining Opinion Formation Of Geoengineering, Christopher L. Cummings, Sonny Rosenthal

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

The term “climate change” has evolved from what was originally a technical term employed by scientists into a symbolic referent involving complex social, political, and moral considerations that have spurred worldwide debate. As evidence of the anthropogenic influence on the Earth’s climate has grown over the past few decades, climate change has come to be viewed as a primary challenge to be confronted in the twenty-first century. Geoengineering, or climate engineering, is a set of large-scale technological interventions proposed to offset climatic changes. This study seeks to understand which factors contribute to, or alternatively, detract from public acceptance of geoengineering …

The Effect Of Warmer Winters On The Demography Of An Outbreak Insect Is Hidden By Intraspecific Competition, Devin W. Goodsman, Guenchik Grosklos, Brian H. Aukema, Caroline Whitehouse, Katherine P. Bleiker, Nate G. Mcdowell, Richard S. Middleton, Chonggang Xu

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9‐year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km², that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on …

A Quantitative Analysis Of The Effects Of Urbanization, Mesophication And Prescribed Burns On Oak Woodlands In The Chicago Metropolitan Area, Chad Populorum

Celebration of Learning

Urban expansion has had devastating impacts on forest ecosystems, especially within the past century. Human attempts to dominate nature have diminished natural disturbance regimes, which have maintained the biodiversity and historic composition of these ecosystems. Fires have been a prominent force in maintaining the structure of oak, hickory and other heliophytic (sun loving and fire-adapted) forest systems. Human induced fire suppression has led to mesophication across North America. Mesophication is the transition from drier conditions with open canopies to wetter conditions with closed canopies. These new conditions decrease the survival rates of these important species and begin to favor mesophytic …

Evaluating The Effects Of Hydrogeologic Processes On The Fate Of Salinity And Halogens In Headwater Catchments, Kristina M. Gutchess

Dissertations - ALL

The transport of solutes from their source to natural water systems is a critical control on the chemistry and potability of drinking water supplies. Therefore, developing a thorough understanding not only of contaminant sources, but also of the controls on the movement of solutes through catchments, is essential to providing accurate assessments of how future environmental stressors (e.g. land cover, population growth, and climate change) may affect water resources.

Halogens (specifically, chloride (Cl), bromide (Br), and iodine (I)) occur naturally at low levels in terrestrial aquatic ecosystems, and may also originate from a suite of anthropogenic sources. Due to their …

Developing A Risk Assessment Protocol To Quantify Distribution And Uptake Of Persistent Organic Pollutants In Glacial Outflows, Kimberley Rain Miner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Pollutants released by industrialized nations between 1960 and 2004 have been transported northward through atmospheric processes and deposited into glaciated alpine ecosystems. Many of these chemicals retain their original structure and are absorbed into the biota thousands of miles away from where they were originally utilized. With a warming climate increasing the melt of alpine glaciers, these glaciers may be introducing growing amounts of toxins into the watershed. While studies have demonstrated the existence of resident pollutants within glaciated ecosystems, no one has developed a risk assessment to identify sources and quantity of risk posed by these compounds when released …

Science, Advocacy, Policy, Planning: Tools For Advancing Transportation Equity, Garrett S. Mcallister

Graduate Student Portfolios, Professional Papers, and Capstone Projects

The theme of this portfolio is how different tools and approaches can be used for advancing transportation equity. Broadly defined, transportation equity is about fairness in transportation. There are a number of ways this fairness can be assessed. The most common way to assess transportation equity is by looking at the fairness of outcomes, distributed geographically, socially, or even by mode of transportation. Equity can also be defined by the fairness of processes. The first half of the portfolio illustrates some of the problems with the current transportation system and how it is unhealthy (Piece 1) and unjust (Piece 2). …

Is The Paris Agreement Already Poised For Failure? - Discerning How Impactful The Clean Power Plan's Fate Is On The Latest Global Climate Initiative, Shawn Eric Mckenzie

Georgia Journal of International & Comparative Law

No abstract provided.

Feasibility Of Harbor-Wide Barrier Systems: Preliminary Analysis For Boston Harbor, Paul Kirshen, Mark Borrelli, Jarrett Byrnes, Robert F. Chen, Lucy Lockwood, Chris Watson, Kimberly Starbuck, Jack Wiggin, Allison Novelly, Kristin Uiterwyk, Kelli Thurson, Brett Mcmann, Carly Foster, Heather Sprague, Hugh Roberts, Di Jin, Kirk Bosma, Eric Holmes, Zach Stromer, Joe Famely, Alex Shaw, Brittany Hoffnagle, Rebecca Herst

School for the Environment Publications

The aim of this study is to provide the City of Boston with a preliminary assessment of the feasibilities and potential benefits, costs, and environmental impacts of three harborwide barrier configurations.

While this study is not comprehensive, and there are many ways that further research could refine and extend its findings, those findings were clear enough to justify making recommendations for next steps. The authors recommend that the City continue to focus its climate resilience strategy for the next several decades on the shore-based multi-layered approach described in Climate Ready Boston. Shore-based solutions would provide flood management more quickly at …

Spatial Patterns Of Precipitation Trends In The Continental United States, 1950-2016, Shayne O'Brien

Master's Theses

Identifying trends in aspects of meteorology is becoming increasingly important to understanding how climate can be expected to change, and how those affected may plan contingencies. Analyzing spatial patterns of precipitation trends allows for associations to be discovered to better understand regional climatology. For this study, daily precipitation data were collected from The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) at stations across the continental United States, with selection based on distance from each other within a state, as well as percent completeness of observation data. Two stations per state were selected, with some exceptions for …

Big Data For Climate Change Actions And The Paradox Of Citizen Informedness, Kustini Lim-Wavde, Robert J. Kauffman

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Advanced sensor technology, social media, and other information technologies have provided us with “big data” on climate change. Due to the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Climate Observing System, climate observations and records, as well as discussions on climate-related concerns such as measurement of air temperature, are widely available now. The United Nations’ Global Pulse visualises public engagement on climate change globally, with data such as the volume of climate-related tweets. Big data, data analytics, and the sharing of scientific results in the popular press have created, as a result, an unprecedented level of citizen informedness—the degree to which citizens have …

Marine Protected Areas In Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction: Defining "Success" For Conservation And Management, Emily Suzanne Nocito

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

With growing attention to and use of marine protected areas [MPAs], there are an increasing number of policy goals ascribed to these area-based management tools [ABMT]. One expectation is that an MPA can increase system “resilience”, yet oftentimes resilience – including whether we are considering social, economic or ecological resilience – stays unspecified. In recent years, there has also been a specific focus on MPAs as tools to promote climate change resilient ocean systems. Through a meta-analysis of the scientific literature and an analysis of over one thousand three hundred voluntary commitments made at the United Nation Ocean Conference, this …

Regional Trends In Early-Monsoon Rainfall Over Vietnam And Ccsm4 Attribution, Rong Li, S.-Y. Simon Wang, Robert R. Gillies, Brendan Buckley, Jin-Ho Yoon, Changrae Cho

Plants, Soils, and Climate Faculty Publications

The analysis of precipitation trends for Vietnam revealed that early-monsoon precipitation has increased over the past three decades but to varying degrees over the northern, central and southern portions of the country. Upon investigation, it was found that the change in early-monsoon precipitation is associated with changes in the low-level cyclonic airflow over the South China Sea and Indochina that is embedded in the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with a “La Niña-like” anomalous sea surface temperature pattern with warming in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and cooling in the eastern Pacific. The Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) …