Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

2018 3rd Place: The Growth And Characterization Of Psychromonas Aquimarina, A New Model Organism For Climate Change, Carrie Carpenter, Catherine Santai

Harrisburg University Research Symposium (2018 & 2019)

Climate change is currently affecting the Earth and will only increase with time1. A change to the environment means that wildlife will need to adapt. Adaptation occurs when an organism changes physiologically or otherwise to permit continued growth in the environment in which it resides. Scientists do not completely understand adaptation mechanisms. Psychromonas aquimarinais a novel bacterium, with little known. This bacteria will first be characterized and studied before conducting temperature studies. Psychromonas aquimarina is a psychrophile, a bacterium able to survive in colder regions where most bacteria would not. P. aquimarinais an ideal bacterium to study because climate change …

Ice Core Records Of West Greenland Melt And Climate Forcing, H.P. Marshall, T. Meehan

CGISS Publications and Presentations

Remote sensing observations and climate models indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the late 1990s, mostly due to enhanced surface melting from rising summer temperatures. However, in situ observational records of GrIS melt rates over recent decades are rare. Here we develop a record of frozen meltwater in the west GrIS percolation zone preserved in seven firn cores. Quantifying ice layer distribution as a melt feature percentage (MFP), we find significant increases in MFP in the southernmost five cores over the past 50 years to unprecedented modern levels (since 1550 CE). Annual to decadal …

Climate Change Litigation And Narrative: How To Use Litigation To Tell Compelling Climate Stories, Grace Nosek

William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review

No abstract provided.

Incentive Compatible Climate Change Mitigation: Moving Beyond The Pledge And Review Model, Gabriel Weil

William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review

Climate change represents a global commons problem, where individuals, businesses, and nation-states all lack sufficient incentives to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to levels consistent with meeting their collectively agreed upon mitigation goals. The current “pledge and review” paradigm for global climate change mitigation, which many see as a major breakthrough, relies primarily on moral pressure, reputational incentives, and global public opinion to foster cooperation on mitigation efforts over and above those driven by maximization of narrow conceptions of national interests. Given the scale of the emissions reductions required to meet stated mitigation goals, the substantial economic costs of deep …

Phenological Mismatch In Coastal Western Alaska May Increase Summer Season Greenhouse Gas Uptake, Katharine C. Kelsey, A. Joshua Leffler, Karen H. Beard, Ryan T. Choi, Joel A. Schmutz, Jeffery M. Welker

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

High latitude ecosystems are prone to phenological mismatches due to climate change- driven advances in the growing season and changing arrival times of migratory herbivores. These changes have the potential to alter biogeochemical cycling and contribute to feedbacks on climate change by altering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) through large regions of the Arctic. Yet the effects of phenological mismatches on gas fluxes are currently unexplored. We used a three-year field experiment that altered the start of the growing season and timing of grazing to …

Providing Modeling Tools On Extreme Events Of Climate Change To Puget Sound Managers, Andrea Copping, Zhaoqing Yang, Ian Miller, Jude K. Apple, Guillaume Mauger, Nathalie Voisin, Aimee Fullerton, Ning Sun, Mikaela Freeman

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

As climate change becomes a reality for the management of Puget Sound, water resource and fisheries managers should consider incorporating predictions and outcomes of future climate drivers into their long-range plans and daily operations. Modeling tools that focus on climate impacts and predictions show that extreme events are more often responsible for large impacts than the long-term press of climate change. Working with water resource and fisheries managers in the Dungeness and Skagit watersheds, this project uses outputs of existing climate and estuarine models to define thresholds and metrics associated with extreme climate-driven events that are of importance to the …

Recent Conditions Highlight Regional Differences In Temperature, Salinity And Dissolved Oxygen Between Strait Of Juan De Fuca And Puget Sound Sites Under Anomalous 2014-2017 Climate Patterns, Julia Bos, Christopher Krembs, S. L. Albertson, Mya Keyzers, Allison Brownlee, Carol Maloy

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Understanding impacts of climate change on Salish Sea water quality is critical yet challenging due to the complexity, strength and diversity of influences on circulation and mixing. Different extreme climate conditions in recent years (2014-2017) include record warm temperatures with reduced snow pack in 2014-2015 followed by a few years of alternating summer droughts with record rainy seasons. These conditions influenced marine water temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen (DO) throughout the Salish Sea. Analyses reveal distinct differences in these key physical and chemical characteristics between Strait of Juan de Fuca sites and sites within Puget Sound basins. Extremely low DO …

Space Matters: Incorporating Mechanistically Determined Spatial Patterns Into Projected Impacts Of Climate Change On Stream Temperature, Se-Yeun Lee, Aimee H. Fullerton, Ashley Steel, Christian Torgersen

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

River temperatures are increasing as a results of climate change, and combined with decreased summertime flows, coldwater species are becoming increasingly stressed. In order to conserve sensitive species, managers need an estimate of how the availability of summertime thermal refuges in rivers will change in the future. Here, we applied the DHSVM-RBM, an existing process-based water temperature model that has been shown to accurately represent temporal variance in water temperature over hours to years. We calibrated this model to empirical data for two case study watersheds (Siletz River, Oregon and Snoqualmie River, Washington) to also ensure representation of observed spatial …

Zooplankton Ecology Of The Fraser River Estuary, Joanne Breckenridge, Evgeny Pakhomov

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Zooplankton are critical components of the pelagic food web. This presentation will discuss zooplankton ecology in the Fraser River Estuary, drawing on the preliminary results of a monitoring study, which ran from August 2013 to May 2016, as well as specific investigations into the life history and behaviour of one of the dominant species, the copepod Eurytemora affinis. Data analysis is ongoing, but, for most of the year, estuarine zooplankton appear limited by the estuary’s short residence time. Due to the advective nature of their environment, estuarine zooplankton have evolved mechanisms to retain populations within the estuary. Our results suggest …

Climate Change Adaptation Planning For Port Of Seattle Waterfront Properties, Joseph Gellings

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

As Seattle’s economy continues to evolve, its significance as a port city is undiminished. The container ports of Seattle and Tacoma recently entered into a joint management agreement and, together, they are the fourth largest container gateway in North America. At the same time, competition is fierce between the remaining rival ports and capital spending on the land-side cargo terminals is a key variable in this competition. This makes it critical that the Port understands what role climate change adaptation will play in the broader challenge of setting the level of public fund expenditures on terminal upgrade projects. The types …

Lessons Learned: Tidal Marsh Restoration In A Dynamic Context Of Stress And Climate Change, Roger Nathan Fuller

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

In the Stillaguamish estuary, tidal wetlands have been receding for decades as a result of both natural and anthropogenic changes. Despite current restoration efforts, monitoring suggests that rising stress from climate change impacts on summer flows, legacy stresses from the levee system, and increased plant mortality from avian and insect herbivores may interact to accelerate the rate of marsh loss. Lessons learned from a 2012 restoration project should inform adaptive management and future restoration projects. Post-restoration monitoring has revealed a pattern of interacting stresses at both the site and system scales that affects marsh productivity and resilience to climate change. …

Guiding Chinook Salmon Recovery Projects Towards A More Resilient Future, Stacy Vynne Mckinstry, Amber Moore

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

Changing climate conditions, along with land-use and other ecological changes, are affecting the health, vitality, and resilience of Chinook salmon populations in watersheds throughout Puget Sound. Restoration and protection projects are designed to address the most critical factors affecting salmon populations. However, with climate change, these factors may change: the medium- and long-term success of the projects and expected benefits to salmon may be compromised and/or current investments may not achieve expected results. The Puget Sound Partnership recently released guidance to help project sponsors and local salmon recovery lead entities identify key climate-related risks for Chinook salmon, guide project sponsors …

Fir Island Farm: Estuary Restoration Project: Designing For Climate Change And Uncertainty In Shoreline Flood Risk Reduction And Ecosystem Restoration Projects, David Cline

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference

The recently designed and constructed Fir Island Farm – Estuary Restoration Project involves construction of a 1-mile long shoreline levee (dike) setback for restoration of 130 acres of farm land for tidal marsh estuary ecosystem restoration. The key uncertainty, and resiliency, design elements of concern include 1) selection of dike level of protection and design elevations considering climate change sea level rise projections, 2) inclusion of erosion protection measures, 3) farm drainage tailwater conditions and 4) ecosystem marsh vegetated plain future elevations and large woody debris loading conditions. This presentation discusses how site characterization, instrumentation, numerical modeling and monitoring were …

Management Of An Urban Stormwater System Using Projected Future Scenarios Of Climate Models: A Watershed-Based Modeling Approach, Ranjeet Thakali, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad, Kamal Qaiser

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Anticipating a proper management needs for urban stormwater due to climate change is becoming a critical concern to water resources managers. In an effort to identify best management practices and understand the probable future climate scenarios, this study used high-resolution climate model data in conjunction with advanced statistical methods and computer simulation. Climate model data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) were used to calculate the design storm depths for the Gowan Watershed of Las Vegas Valley, Nevada. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), was used for hydrological modeling. …

Carbon Flux And Weathering Processes In Icelandic Glacial-Fed Rivers, Allison Quiroga

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

An investigation into the carbon dynamics and weathering processes occurring in Icelandic glacial-fed streams was conducted during the spring to summer seasonal transition in June of 2017. Four major outlet rives were sampled from the glaciers of Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, Sólheimajökull, and Falljökull. Markarfljót, the major river that Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, and many other glaciers drain into, was also sampled. Longitudinal sampling occurred at all sites to capture downstream trends in the hydrogeochemistry and carbon dynamics. Distinct differences in geochemistry between glacier surface meltwater, sub-glacial waters, pro-glacial lake water, and post-mixed downstream samples were evident in the data. Glacier surface streams were …

Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …

Climate Change: Aristotelian Virtue Theory, The Aidōs Response And Proper Primility, John W. Voelpel

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Climate change is the first anthropogenic alteration of a global Earth system. It is globally catastrophic in terms of food production, sea level rise, fresh water availability, temperature elevation, ocean acidification, species disturbance and destruction to name just a few crisis concerns. In addition, while those changes are occurring now, they are amplifying over decadal periods and will last for centuries and possibly millennia. While there are a number of pollutants involved, carbon dioxide (CO2) which results from the combustion of any fossil fuel is the primary pollutant. It has not been considered a pollutant until recently because of its …

Rain Rituals As A Barometer Of Vulnerability In An Uncertain Climate, L. Jen Shaffer

Journal of Ecological Anthropology

Researchers and aid agencies, seeking to improve their understanding of local climate change responses, adaptation, and vulnerability, frequently interact with communities around the world who strongly emphasize their religious beliefs and practices. Dismissal and misunderstandings of these local perspectives can slow assessments of local climate vulnerability and development of adaptive capacity. In this paper, I show how analysis of rain ritual failure exposes the multiple stressors Ronga communities in southern Mozambique face, and as such, serves as a proxy measure for climate vulnerability at the local level. Oral histories and targeted interviews with participating elders, local chiefs, and community members …

Climate Change, Cattle, And The Challenge Of Sustainability In A Telecoupled System In Africa, Tara S. Easter, Alexander K. Killion, Neil H. Carter

Neil H. Carter

Information, energy, and materials are flowing over greater distances than in the past, changing the structure and feedbacks within and across coupled human and natural systems worldwide. The telecoupling framework was recently developed to understand the feedbacks and multidirectional flows characterizing social and environmental interactions between distant systems. We extend the application of the telecoupling framework to illustrate how flows in beef affect and are affected by social-ecological processes occurring between distant systems in Africa, and how those dynamics will likely change over the next few decades because of climate-induced shifts in a major bovine disease, trypanosomosis. The disease is …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Irrigated Agriculture And Future Climate Change Effects On Groundwater Recharge, Northern High Plains Aquifer, Usa, Zachary H. Lauffenburger, Jason J. Gurdak, Chris Hobza, Duane Woodward

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (ψT) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (3H, Cl−, Br−, CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D …

Changing Rainfall Frequency Rather Than Drought Rapidly Alters Annual Soil Respiration In A Tropical Forest, Qi Deng, Deqiang Zhang, Xi Han, Guowei Chu, Quanfa Zhang, Dafeng Hui

Biology Faculty Research

Tropical forests play an important role in global carbon (C) cycling due to high primary productivity and rapid litter and soil organic C decomposition. However, it is still unclear how changing rainfall will influence soil CO2 losses (i.e. via soil respiration) in tropical forests. Here, using a rainfall and litter manipulation experiment in a tropical forest, we show that enhanced litter-leached dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production with increased rainfall frequency drives substantial CO2 loss via soil respiration. A 50% increase in rainfall frequency (no change in total rainfall amount) enhanced inputs of DOC by 28%, total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) by …

Economic Contributions Of Winter Sports In A Changing Climate, Hagenstad Consulting, Inc., Elizabeth Burakowski, Rebecca Hill

Earth Systems Research Center

In mountain towns across the United States that rely on winter tourism, snow is

currency. For snow lovers and the winter sports industry, predictions of a future with

warmer winters, reduced snowfall, and shorter snow seasons is inspiring them to

innovate, increase their own efforts to address emissions, and speak publicly on the

urgent need for action.

This report examines the economic contribution of winter snow sports tourism to

U.S. national and state-level economies. In a 2012 analysis, Protect Our Winters and

the Natural Resources Defense Council found that the winter sports tourism industry

generates $12.2 billion and 23 million …

See You In Court: Around The World In Eight Climate Change Lawsuits, Myanna Dellinger

William & Mary Environmental Law and Policy Review

No abstract provided.

Mixed Methods Approach To Understanding Farmer And Agricultural Advisor Perceptions Of Climate Change And Adaptation In Vermont, United States, Rachel E. Schattman, V. Ernesto Méndez, Scott C. Merrill, Asim Zia

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Faculty Publications

The relationships among farmers’ belief in climate change, perceptions of climate-related risk, and use of climate adaptation practices is a growing topic of interest in U.S. scholarship. The northeast region is not well represented in the literature, although it is highly agricultural and will likely face climate-related risks that differ from those faced in other regions. We used a mixed methods approach to examine northeast farmers’ perceptions of climate change and climate-related risks over time, and perceived trade-offs associated with on-farm practices. Our investigation shows how northeastern farmers think about climate-risk, and what they are doing to address it.

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

Integrating System Dynamics And Remote Sensing To Estimate Future Water Usage And Average Surface Runoff In Lagos, Nigeria, Gilles A. Kandissounon, Ajay Karla, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

The goal of this study was twofold; first analyze the patterns of water consumption in Lagos, Nigeria and use them in a System Dynamics (SD) model to make projections about future demand. The second part used remote sensing to quantify the contribution of extensive land use/cover change to urban flooding. Land use/cover dynamics over the past decade was analyzed using satellite imagery provided by Landsat Thematic Mapping (TM). Unsupervised classification was performed with false color composite using the Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) technique in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The study area was divided into four different land use …

Policy Insights From The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios, Alexander R. Barron, Allen A. Fawcett, Marc A.C. Hafstead, James R. Mcfarland, Adele C. Morris

Environmental Science and Policy: Faculty Publications

The Stanford Energy Modeling Forum exercise 32 (EMF 32) used 11 different models to assess emissions, energy, and economic outcomes from a plausible range of economy-wide carbon price policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States. Here we discuss the most policy-relevant results of the study, mindful of the strengths and weaknesses of current models. Across all models, carbon prices lead to significant reductions in CO2 emissions and conventional pollutants, with the vast majority of the reductions occurring in the electricity sector. Importantly, emissions reductions do not significantly depend on the rebate or tax cut used to …

Spectral Signatures Of Submicron Scale Light-Absorbing Impurities In Snow And Ice Using Hyperspectral Microscopy, Farra Dal Anna, Susan Kaspari, James Beach, Thomas D. Bucheli, Michael Schaepman, Margit Schwikowski

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

Light-absorbing impurities (LAI) can darken snow and ice surfaces, reduce snow/ice albedo and accelerate melt. Efforts to allocate the relative contribution of different LAI to snow/ice albedo reductions have been limited by uncertainties in the optical properties of LAI. We developed a new method to measure LAI spectral reflectance at the submicron scale by modifying a Hyperspectral Imaging Microscope Spectrometer (HIMS). We present the instrument’s internal calibration, and the overall small influence of a particle’s orientation on its measured reflectance spectrum. We validated this new method through the comparison with a field spectroradiometer by measuring different standard materials. Measurements with …

The Climate-Smart Village Approach: Framework Of An Integrative Strategy For Scaling Up Adaptation Options In Agriculture, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Andy Jarvis, Bruce M. Campbell, Robert B. Zougmoré, Arun Khatri-Chhetri, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Leocadio S. Sebastian, James Kinyangi, Osana Bonilla-Findji, Maren Radeny, John Recha, Deissy Martinez-Baron, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Sophia Huyer, Philip Thornton, Eva Wollenberg, James Hansen, Patricia Alvarez-Toro, Andrés Aguilar-Ariza, David Arango-Londoño, Victor Patiño-Bravo, Ovidio Rivera, Mathieu Ouedraogo, Bui Tan Yen

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Increasing weather risks threaten agricultural production systems and food security across the world. Maintaining agricultural growth while minimizing climate shocks is crucial to building a resilient food production system and meeting developmental goals in vulnerable countries. Experts have proposed several technological, institutional, and policy interventions to help farmers adapt to current and future weather variability and to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents the climate-smart village (CSV) approach as a means of performing agricultural research for development that robustly tests technological and institutional options for dealing with climatic variability and climate change in agriculture using participatory methods. It …