Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

Selection Correction And Sensitivity Analysis For Ordered Treatment Effect On Count Response, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

In estimating the effect of an ordered treatment [tau] on a count response y with an observational data where [tau] is self-selected (not randomized), observed variables x and unobserved variables [epsilon] can be unbalanced across the control group ([tau] = 0) and the treatment groups ([tau] = 1, . . . , J). While the imbalance in x causes 'overt bias' which can be removed by controlling for x, the imbalance in [epsilon] causes 'covert (hidden or selection) bias' which cannot be easily removed. This paper makes three contributions. First, a proper counter-factual causal framework for ordered treatment effect on …

Social Trust, Cooperation, And Human Capital, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The importance of social trust on economic growth has been suggested by many empirical works. This paper formalizes the concept of social trust and studies its formation process in a game theoretic setting. It provides plausible explanations for a wide range of empirical and experimental findings. The main results of the paper are as follows. For utility-maximizing players, cooperation arises in one-period prisoner’s dilemmas if and only if there is social trust. The amount of social trust in a given game is determined by the distribution of players’ cooperative tendency. Cooperative tendency is in essence a component of human capital …

The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

The current sluggish performance of the US economy follows one of the more remarkable booms in modern history. The late 1990s was a period of simultaneous output and productivity growth,1 low unemployment and stable inflation, culminating in an unemployment rate of only 3.9% in the fourth quarter of the year 2000. The absence of rising inflation during this period came as a surprise to many since the level of the natural rate of unemployment was commonly estimated to be in the range of 5-6% by the mid 1990s. The non-inflationary boom, however, reminds one of another episode where non-monetary forces …

Congestion Control And Vehicle Ownership Restriction: The Choice Of An Optimal Quota Policy, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore introduced a vehicle quota system (VQS) in 1990 as part of its overall policy to control urban congestion. While the VQS has reduced the annual growth rate of the vehicle population to about 3 per cent, it has created uncertainty in the cost of vehicle ownership due to the fluctuations in licence prices. This paper discusses three issues relating to the optimal design of a VQS: licence transferability, sub-categorisation, and the choice of an auction format. The analysis shows that licence transferability is not unambiguously desirable, sub-categorisation is highly regressive, and an open auction format results in less aggressive …

Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering attempts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between putative leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first examined by Granger causality tests. Subsequently, an impulse response analysis confirms the leading qualities of …

Revisiting The Asian Values Argument Used By Asian Political Leaders And Its Validity, Chang Yau Hoon

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

No abstract provided.

A Regional Approach To Human Security In East Asia: Global Debate, Regional Insecurity And The Role Of Civil Society, James T. H. Tang

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

The concept of human security as a new paradigm presents a particular challenge for East Asia. While the region experienced dramatic political, economic and social transformations in the last few decades, much of the region’s key security concerns are state-focused. In fact East Asian regional security structures that are products of the Cold War era have remained largely intact.

Strikes Through The Prism Of Duties: Is There A Fundamental Duty To Strike Under The Indian Constitution?, Shubhankar Dam

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Much of the debates on the legality of strikes under the Indian Constitution has been on the issue of a right to strike. This paper argues that the constitutionality of strikes may be analysed through the prism of duties, i.e. fundamental duties under Part IVA of the Constitution. Strikes were an integral part of the ideals that inspired India's national struggle against imperialism. And, in this sense, when article 51A exhorts Indians to cherish and follow the noble ideals that inspired our freedom struggle, it includes a fundamental duty to strike. Invoking the philosophy of Mahatma Gandhi, the paper argues …

Trends In Parliamentary Oversight: Proceedings From A Panel At The 2004 Southern Political Science Association Conference, Riccardo Pelizzo, David Olson, Rick Stapenhurst

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

No abstract provided.

Multiparty Split-Ticket Voting Estimation As An Ecological Inference Problem, Kenneth Benoit, Michael Laver, Daniela Giannetti

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

The estimation of vote splitting in mixed-member electoral systems is a common problem in electoral studies, where the goal of researchers is to estimate individual voter transitions between parties on two different ballots cast simultaneously. Because the ballots are cast separately and secretly, however, voter choice on the two ballots must be recreated from separately tabulated aggregate data. The problem is therefore of one of making ecological inferences. Because of the multiparty contexts normally found where mixed-member electoral rules are used, furthermore, the problem involves large-table (R × C) ecological inference. In this chapter we show how vote-splitting problems in …

Nationalism And Multiculturalism, Chandran Kukathas

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

If any issue dominates contemporary political theory, it is how to deal with cultural diversity and the claims –moral, legal, and political – made in the name of ethnic, religious, linguistic, or national allegiance (Kymlicka,2001: 17). Today, governments are confronted by demands from cultural minorities for recognition, protection,preferential treatment, and political autonomy within the boundaries of the state. Equally, international societyand its political institutions, as well as states themselves, have had to deal with demands from various peoplesfor political recognition as independent nations, and for national self-determination. The turbulent politics ofthe contemporary world may account in part for this development: …

From Principle To Practice: Constitutional Principles And The Transformation Of Party Finance In Germany And Italy, Riccardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

The paper investigates the development of party finance and party finance legislation in Germany and Italy. The main claim of the paper is that the differences between German and Italian party finance reflect differences in the party finance legislation enacted in the two countries, which, in their turn, are a result of how the German and the Italian constitutional principles were translated into practice.

Does The Parliament Make A Difference? The Role Of The Italian Parliament In Financial Policy, Carolyn Forestiere, Riccardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

A recent survey conducted in a sample of 83 countries by the Inter-Parliamentary Union in collaboration with the World Bank Institute on the Relations between the Legislature and the Executive in the Context of Parliamentary Oversight allows cross-national comparison for the role of legislatures in the budgetary process. One of the survey’s most significant indications is that legislatures in presidential systems are generally more involved in the preparation of the budget than legislatures in either parliamentary or semi-presidential systems. The picture, however, is very different when we look at legislatures’ oversight of the budget. Parliaments are generally more involved in …

Java-Based Digital Library Portal For Geography Education, Zehua Liu, Hai Yuan, Ee Peng Lim, Ming Yin, Dion Hoe-Lian Goh, Yin-Leng Theng, Wee-Keong Ng

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

G-Portal is a Java-based digital library system for managing the metadata of geography related resources on the Web. In addition to providing a flexible repository subsystem to accommodate metadata of different formats using XML and XML Schemas, G-Portal organizes metadata into projects and layers, and supports an integrated and synchronized classification and map-based interfaces over the stored metadata. G-Portal also includes a classification subsystem that creates category structures and classifies metadata resources into categories based on user-specified classification schemas. Furthermore, G-Portal users can annotate resources and make their annotations available to others. In this paper, we describe the design and …

Peoples Union For Civil Liberties V Union Of India: Is Indian Democracy Dependent On A Statute?, Shubhankar Dam

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

What is the status of a right to vote in the Indian legal system? Is the right a constitutional/fundamental right? Or is it simply a statutory right? Contrary to the decisions of the Supreme Court in the last five decades, this paper argues that the right to vote is a constitutional right: its textual foundation may be located in Article 326. And, in this sense, the Supreme Court has erred in construing the right to vote as a statutory right under the Representation of Peoples Act, 1951. Interpreting the right to vote as a statutory right has larger implications for …

Optimum Currency Area In Europe: An Alternative Evaluation, Yoonbai Kim, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we explore an alternative scheme to assess the suitability of adopting a common currency by Western European countries. It is based on the role of common regional shocks in the determination of output. The results show that the OCA theory well explains and predicts participation decisions in EMU. We also find that our OCA index is highly consistent with two popular schemes that have been introduced by Bayoumi and Eichengreen.

Performance Of High And Low Book-To-Market Stocks With Strong Financial Signals: Evidence In Asia Markets 1991-2002, Choong Seok Joseph Kang, Kuan Yong David Ding

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Motivated by striking findings in recent US studies on return enhancing role in financial signals, we examine in the context of Asian stock markets if we can improve one- and two-year returns of high and low book-to-market (BTM) portfolios by retaining in the portfolios only the stocks whose current accounting/financial information indicates strong financial performance in the prior year. We find that doing so can substantially improve the future returns of such portfolios in all markets except Malaysia. We also find that a zero-investment winner-loser strategy on high BTM stocks (a strategy of longing the value stocks with strong financial …

I Love Smu: Heart, Life, Passion, Soul [Advertisment], Singapore Management University

SMU Press Releases

Celebrating the unconventional, the intriguing, the undaunted. Experience the SMU spirit. Heart: Jenny Foo; Life: Tan Chee Wee; Life: Joven Lai; Soul: Jeremy Nguee; Passion: Richard Ho, Johny Tay.

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Information Recovery In A Study With Surrogate Endpoints, Song Xi Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recently, there has been a lot of interest in statistical methods for analyzing data with surrogate endpoints. In this article, we consider parameter estimation from a model that relates a variable Y to a set of covariates, X, in the presence of a surrogate, S. We assume that the data are made up of two random samples from the population, a validation set where (Y, X, S) are observed on every subject and a nonvalidation set where only (X, S) are measured. We show how information from the nonvalidation set can be incorporated to improve upon estimation of a parameter …

Fiducial Predictive Densities And Econometric Duration Analysis, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article, we propose using fiducial predictive density (FPD) as a density estimate, which leads naturally to estimators of survivor and hazard functions and provides a simple way of constructing shortest prediction intervals. This approach is studied in detail in the context of two flexible duration models proposed in this paper, namely the trans-normal and trans-exponential families, by presenting the FPDs, their basic properties, their Bayesian correspondence and their applications in econometric duration analysis. Empirical evidences show that the FPD method provides better estimates of survivor and hazard functions, particularly the latter, than does the usual maximum likelihood method. …

The Arms Trade In Russian-Chinese Relations: Identity, Domestic Politics, And Geopolitical Positioning, Robert H. Donaldson, John A. Donaldson

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Why would a declining power help arm a neighboring and once-hostile rising power? Current international relations literature cannot explain relationships in which one powerful country contributes directly to its long-term relative decline in order to make smaller, short-term gains. This study focuses on one example, the Treaty on Good Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, signed in Moscow on July 16, 2001. Presenting evidence that this alliance embodies a relationship that is based primarily on sales of arms from Russia to China, the authors argue that this association cannot be explained by …

How Are Social Identities Linked To Self-Conception And Intergroup Orientation? The Moderating Effect Of Implicit Theories, Ying-Yi Hong, Gloria Chan, Chi-Yue Chiu, Rosanna Y. M. Wong, Ian G. Hansen, Sau-Lai Lee, Jennifer Yuk-Yue Tong, Ho-Ying Fu

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Social identity approaches assume that social identification affects both self-conception and intergroup orientation. The authors contend that such social identification effects are accentuated when people hold a fixed view of human character and attribute immutable dispositions to social groups. To these individuals, social identities are immutable, concrete entities capable of guiding self-conception and intergroup orientation. Social identification effects are attenuated when people hold a malleable view of human character and thus do not view social identities as fixed, concrete entities. The authors tested and found support for this contention in three studies that were conducted in the context of the …

Score Tests For Inverse Gaussian Mixture, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The mixed inverse Gaussian given by Whitmore (Scand. J. Statist., 13, 1986, 211–220) provides a convenient way for testing the goodness-of-fit of a pure inverse Gaussian distribution. The test is a one-sided score test with the null hypothesis being the pure inverse Gaussian (i.e. the mixing parameter is zero) and the alternative a mixture. We devise a simple score test and study its finite sample properties. Monte Carlo results show that it compares favourably with the smooth test of Ducharme (Test, 10, 2001, 271-290). In practical applications, when the pure inverse Gaussian distribution is rejected, one is interested in making …

The Eu And The Non-Proliferation Of Nuclear Weapons: The Way To Thessaloniki And Beyond, Clara Portela

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This paper discusses EU policies against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The author states that at the beginning of the century, the EU began taking steps against the spread of nuclear weapons within its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). In June 2003, the European Council adopted its first draft strategy against the proliferation of WMDs. In order to assess the significance of the strategy, the paper presents and evaluates the Union’s record in the field, reviews the strategy and makes suggestions as to how it can be improved.

The Impacts Of Hong Kong's Currency Board Reforms On Its Interbank Market, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip

Research Collection School Of Economics

Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive …

The Law And The Elderly In Singapore: The Law On Income And Maintenance For The Elderly, Locknie Hsu

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

By 2030, Singapore's elderly will make up a staggering 19% of the population. With such a large proportion of people becoming old, it is timely to pay some attention to the broad spectrum of legal issues surrounding elder. Several sociological and statistical studies have been done on the elderly Singapore, yet relatively little has been written on the law relating to them. Much of the present legislation which directly or indirectly addresses problems of the elderly in Singapore relate to their financial arrangements. Examples of these are provisions relating to withdrawal of Central Provident Fund (CPF) monies and the age …

Larger Issues At Stake In Unnatural Sex Debate, Seow Hon Tan

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

The recent debate about the criminal prohibition of oral sex provides an occasion for considering larger, related issues. However prevalent the practice of oral sex and however archaic Section 377 of the Penal Code seems to those pushing for its repeal, the arguments offered have tended to take a piecemeal approach and display an ignorance of or disregard for the larger interests at stake.

A Survey On Physical Delivery Versus Cash Settlement In Futures Contracts, Donald Lien, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

A futures contract may adopt physical delivery or cash settlement to liquidate open positions after the maturity day. While traditionally physical delivery specification is favored, exchanges have recently turned to examine cash settlement possibilities. This paper summarizes current literature on settlement specifications with emphases on market manipulation, cash index construction, and hedging effectiveness comparisons

Issue Definition And The Opinion-Policy Link: Public Preferences And Health Care Spending In The Us And Uk, Stuart N. Soroka, Elvin T. Lim

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

This article explores the extent to which yearly changes in health spending reflect yearly changes in public preferences. Time series modelling suggests that health care spending is remarkably more responsive to yearly changes in public opinion in the US than in the UK.A content analysis of party manifestos suggests the significant role of ‘issue definition’ in accounting for this difference. Health care issues in the US have more often been viewed as problems of expenditure, while UK policy-makers have tended to focus on efficiency. Results suggest that the responsiveness of health care expenditures to public preferences in the US and …

Tests Of Functional Form And Heteroscedasticity, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers tests of misspecification in a heteroscedastic transformation model. We derive Lagrange multiplier (LM) statistics for (i) testing functional form and heteroscedasticity jointly, (ii) testing functional form in the presence of heteroscedasticity, and (iii) testing heteroscedasticity in the presence of data transformation. We present LM statistics based on the expected information matrix. For cases (i) and (ii), this is done assuming the Box-Cox transformation. For case (iii), the test does not depend on whether the functional form is estimated or pre-specified. Small-sample properties of the tests are assessed by Monte Carlo simulation, and comparisons are made with the …