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Articles 1831 - 1860 of 2768
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
On Integer Points In Polyhedra: A Lower Bound, Imre Bárány, Roger Howe, László Lovász
On Integer Points In Polyhedra: A Lower Bound, Imre Bárány, Roger Howe, László Lovász
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Given a polyhedron P subset R n we write P I for the convex hull of the integral points in P. It is known that P I can have at most O(ϕ n-1 ) vertices if P is a rational polyhedron with size ϕ. Here we give an example showing that P I can have as many as Ω(ϕ n-1 ) vertices. The construction uses the Dirichlet unit theorem.
An Introduction To General Equilibrium With Incomplete Asset Markets, John Geanakoplos
An Introduction To General Equilibrium With Incomplete Asset Markets, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
I survey the major results in the theory of general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets. I also introduce the papers in this volume and offer a few suggestions for further work.
Renegotiation And Symmetry In Repeated Games, Dilip Abreu, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
Renegotiation And Symmetry In Repeated Games, Dilip Abreu, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
It seems reasonable to suppose that in repeated games in which communications is possible, play is determined through a process of negotiation and renegotiation as events unfold. In the absence of a satisfying theory of players’ bargaining power, it is unclear how to model this process. Symmetric repeated games are an important class in which the problem is less troublesome. Whatever its source, bargaining power is presumably the same for all players in a symmetric game. We take equal bargaining power to mean that a player can mount a credible objection to a continuation equilibrium in which he receives a …
An Empirical Process Central Limit Theorem For Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables, Donald W.K. Andrews
An Empirical Process Central Limit Theorem For Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper establishes a central limit theorem (CLT) for empirical processes indexed by smooth functions. The underlying random variables may be temporally dependent and non-identically distributed. In particular, the CLT holds for near epoch dependent (i.e., functions of mixing processes) triangular arrays, which include strong mixing arrays, among others. The results apply to classes of functions that have series expansions. The proof of the CLT is particularly simple; no chaining argument is required. The results can be used to establish the asymptotic normality of semiparametric estimators in time series contexts. An example is provided.
Do The Secondary Markets Believe In Life After Debt?, Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou
Do The Secondary Markets Believe In Life After Debt?, Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper employs panel-data econometric techniques to explore the relations between measures of credit worthiness and the debt discounts on the secondary markets. It investigates empirically whether the secondary market discounts reflect a history of past repayments problems or whether they anticipate future debt crises. The answer to this question has implications about the desirability of debt relief. The main finding is that the secondary markets do not seem rapidly to absorb economic information, which suggests that they are still in their evolutionary stage and are not very efficient. The estimated models are also used to analyze issues in the …
Asymptotics For Semiparametric Econometric Models: Iii. Testing And Examples, Donald W.K. Andrews
Asymptotics For Semiparametric Econometric Models: Iii. Testing And Examples, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper considers tests of nonlinear parametric restrictions in semiparametric econometric models. To date, only Wald tests of such restrictions have been considered in the literature. Here, Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio-like test statistics are considered and are shown to have asymptotic chi-square distributions under the null and local alternatives. The results hold for a wide variety of underlying estimation techniques and in a wide variety of model scenarios. A number of examples are given to illustrate the testing results of this paper and the estimation and stochastic equicontinuity results of the antecedents to this paper, viz. Andrews (1989b, …
Asymptotics For Semiparametric Econometric Models: I. Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Asymptotics For Semiparametric Econometric Models: I. Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides a general framework for proving the square root of T consistency and asymptotic normality of a wide variety of semiparametric estimators. The results apply in time series and cross-sectional modeling contexts. The class of estimators considered consists of estimators that can be defined as the solution to a minimization problem based on a criterion function that may depend on a preliminary infinite dimensional nuisance parameter estimator. The criterion function need not be differentiable. The method of proof exploits results concerning the stochastic equicontinuity or weak convergence of normalized sums of stochastic processes. This paper also considers tests …
The Capital Asset Pricing Model As A General Equilibrium With Incomplete Markets, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
The Capital Asset Pricing Model As A General Equilibrium With Incomplete Markets, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We recast the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) in the broader context of general equilibrium with incomplete markets (GEI). In this setting we give proofs of three properties of CAPM equilibria: they are efficient, asset prices lie on a “security market line,” and all agents hold the same two mutual funds. The first property requires a riskless asset, the latter two do not. We show that across all GEI only one of these three properties of equilibrium is generally valid: asset prices depend on covariances, not variances. We extend CAPM to many consumption goods in such a way that all …
Game Theory Without Partitions, And Applications To Speculation And Consensus, John Geanakoplos
Game Theory Without Partitions, And Applications To Speculation And Consensus, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Decision theory and game theory are extended to allow for information processing errors. This extended theory is then used to reexamine market speculation and consensus, both when all actions (opinions) are common knowledge and when they may not be. Five axioms of information processing are shown to be especially important to speculation and consensus. They are called nondelusion, knowing that you know, nested, balanced, and positively balanced. We show that it is necessary and sufficient that each agent’s information processing errors be nondeluded and (1) balanced so that the agents cannot agree to disagree, (2) positively balanced so that it …
Asymptotic Optimality Of Generalized Cl, Cross-Validation, And Generalized Cross-Validation In Regression With Heteroskedastic Errors, Donald W.K. Andrews
Asymptotic Optimality Of Generalized Cl, Cross-Validation, And Generalized Cross-Validation In Regression With Heteroskedastic Errors, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The problem considered here is that of using a data-driven procedure to select a good estimate from a class of linear estimates indexed by a discrete parameter. In contrast to other papers on this subject, we consider models with heteroskedastic errors. The results apply to model selection problems in linear regression and to nonparametric regression estimation via series estimators, nearest neighbor estimators, and local regression estimators, among others. Generalized C L , cross-validation, and generalized cross-validation procedures are analyzed.
Time Series Regression With A Unit Root And Infinite Variance Errors, Peter C.B. Phillips
Time Series Regression With A Unit Root And Infinite Variance Errors, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Chan and Tran give the limit theory for the least squares coefficient in a random walk with the iid errors that are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. This note discusses their results and provides generalizations to the case of I(q) processes with weakly dependent errors whose distributions are in the domain of attraction of a stable law. General unit root tests are also studied. It is shown that the semiparametric corrections suggested by the author for the finite variance case continue to work when the errors have infinite variance. The limit laws are expressed in terms …
Gold, Liquidity And Secured Loans In A Multi-Stage Economy. Part Ii. Many Durables, Land And Gold, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Gold, Liquidity And Secured Loans In A Multi-Stage Economy. Part Ii. Many Durables, Land And Gold, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In a previous paper (Shubik and Yao, 1988) we examined a multistage exchange economy with m perishable goods and one infinitely durable gold used as money. we considered an economy without credit and one with one hundred percent secured loans. In this paper we consider an economy with m(1) goods which have finite lives and m(2) goods which are of infinite durability. Historically the two durables which have been prominent in economic activity have been gold and land, although one might wish to include platinum and some other items.
Market Innovation And Entrepreneurship: A Knightian View, Truman F. Bewley
Market Innovation And Entrepreneurship: A Knightian View, Truman F. Bewley
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Stimulated by Frank Knight’s work, “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit,” I present a theory of innovation based on what I term Knightian decision theory. This theory includes a concept of uncertainty aversion, a behavioral property that makes people reluctant to undertake new unevaluatable risks. This aversion is compounded when individuals are obliged to cooperate in undertaking risks. The theory leads directly to the conclusion that innovation in business is the natural domain of individual investors with unusually low levels of uncertainty aversion. Also, it should be difficult to innovate new markets for insurance of unevaluatable risks, for the success of a …
Testing For A Unit Root By Generalized Least Squares Methods In The Time And Frequency Domains, In Choi, Peter C.B. Phillips
Testing For A Unit Root By Generalized Least Squares Methods In The Time And Frequency Domains, In Choi, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
New time and frequency domain tests for the presence of a unit root are developed. The tests are based on generalized least squares (GLS) methods in both the time and the frequency domains. For the time domain tests, moving average processes are assumed for the error terms on the autoregression. For the frequency domain tests, general assumptions are made which allow for stationary and weakly dependent error processes. The limiting distributions of feasible GLS tests are derived under MA(1) errors in the time domain. This theory is extended to higher order moving average processes under an invertibility condition. The limiting …
Asymptotics For Semiparametric Econometric Models: Ii. Stochastic Equicontinuity And Nonparametric Kernel Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Asymptotics For Semiparametric Econometric Models: Ii. Stochastic Equicontinuity And Nonparametric Kernel Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper presents several stochastic equicontinuity results that are useful for establishing the asymptotic properties of estimators and tests in parametric, semiparametric, and nonparametric econometric models. In particular, they can be applied straightforwardly in the estimation and testing results of Andrews (1989b). The paper takes various stochastic equicontinuity results from the probability literature, which rely on entropy conditions of one sort or another, and provides primitive conditions under which the entropy conditions hold. This yields stochastic equicontinuity results that are readily applicable in a variety of contexts. This paper also presents a number of consistency results for nonparametric kernel estimators …
The Transactions Cost Of Money (A Strategic Game Analysis), Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
The Transactions Cost Of Money (A Strategic Game Analysis), Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The payments system of a modern economy is a peculiar mix of technological and institutional factors. Trade takes time and involves some form of money or credit. Going to the bank or arranging credits is expensive. Baumol (1952) and Tobin (1956) address the costs of transactions. However both the Baumol and the Tobin analysis was carried out in a partial equilibrium context. Here we address the task of considering the costs of banking in a closed strategic market game.
The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive And Well, Ray C. Fair
The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive And Well, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Monthly data in physical units for seven industries are used to examine the production smoothing hypothesis. The results strongly support this hypothesis. Significant effects of expected future sales on current production are found for four industries, and the estimated decision equations for all seven industries imply production smoothing behavior. The previous negative results regarding the hypothesis appear to be due to the use of poor data, particularly the shipments and inventory data of the Department of Commerce.
Liquidity And Bankruptcy With Incomplete Markets: Pure Exchange, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Liquidity And Bankruptcy With Incomplete Markets: Pure Exchange, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We enlarge the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete market (GEI), to incorporate liquidity constraints as well as the possibility of bankruptcy and default. A new equilibrium results, which we abbreviate GELBI (general equilibrium with liquidity, bankruptcy and incomplete markets). When the supply of bank money and bankruptcy/default penalties are taken sufficiently high (the high regime), GEI occur as GELBI. But outside the high regime many new phenomena appear: money is (almost) never neutral, it has positive value and its optimum quantity is often finite; bankruptcy and default not only occur in equilibrium but can have welfare improving consequences …
Repeated Trade And The Velocity Of Money, Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi, Martin Shubik
Repeated Trade And The Velocity Of Money, Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
There are two sources of inefficiency of strategic equilibria (SE) in market mechanisms. The first is the oligopolistic effect, which occurs when an agent can single-handedly influence prices. With a continuum of agents we get “perfect competition” and this effect is, of course, wiped out. But the inefficiency of SE’s may nevertheless persist because agents are not “perfectly liquid,” i.e., the constraints of the mechanism are such that they cannot carry out arbitrary trades at the market prices. Our main result is that, if enough repeated rounds of trade are permitted within a single utility period, then the liquidity problem …
The Durbin-Watson Ratio Under Infinite Variance Errors, Peter C.B. Phillips, Mico Loretan
The Durbin-Watson Ratio Under Infinite Variance Errors, Peter C.B. Phillips, Mico Loretan
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the properties of the von Neumann ratio for time series with infinite variance. The asymptotic theory is developed using recent results on the weak convergence of partial sums of time series with infinite variance to stable processes and of sample serial correlations to functions of stable variables. Our asymptotics cover the null of iid variates and general moving average (MA) alternatives. Regression residuals are also considered. In the static regression model the Durbin-Watson statistic has the same limit distribution as the von Neumann ratio under general conditions. However, the dynamic models, the results are more complex and …
Reflections On Econometric Methodology, Peter C.B. Phillips
Reflections On Econometric Methodology, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
General issues about the methodology of empirical econometric research are discussed. It is argued that the most successful paradigms for applied work are the ones that have a capacity to survive and to evolve into more useful forms as these are needed. Paradigms that embrace progressive modeling principles, such as those espoused by David Hendry, seem most amenable to this criterion. It is also argued that econometric theory has a large role to play in helping us to understand the strengths and the weaknesses of a methodology and to codify what its prescriptions entail. The time series methodology of David …
Nonparametric Tests Of Maximizing Behavior Subject To Nonlinear Sets, Rosa L. Matzkin
Nonparametric Tests Of Maximizing Behavior Subject To Nonlinear Sets, Rosa L. Matzkin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper extends the axiomatic theory of revealed preference to choices that are generated by the maximization of a strictly concave and strictly monotone function subject to nonlinear constraint sets. I characterize finite sets of observations on choice behavior that are consistent with the maximization of a strictly concave and strictly monotone objective function. Both nonconvex and convex choice sets are considered. The analysis applies, for example, to consumers who face either regressive or progressive taxes and to households that produce commodities according to either a convex or a concave production function. For choice sets that possess convex and monotone …
The Interaction Of Implicit And Explicit Contracts In Repeated Agenc, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
The Interaction Of Implicit And Explicit Contracts In Repeated Agenc, David G. Pearce, Ennio Stacchetti
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Traditional agency theory assumes that the principal has no more information about the agent’s actions than the enforcement authorities have. This is unrealistic in many settings, and in repeated models, additional information possessed by the principal changes the nature of the problem. Such information can be used in implicit, self-enforcing contracts between principal and agent, that supplement the usual explicit contracts. This paper studies the way in which the two kinds of contracts are combined in constrained efficient equilibria of the agency supergame. The agent’s compensation is comprised of both guaranteed payments and voluntary bonuses from the principal. We give …
The Behavior Of Home Buyers In Boom And Post-Boom Markets, Robert J. Shiller, Karl E. Case
The Behavior Of Home Buyers In Boom And Post-Boom Markets, Robert J. Shiller, Karl E. Case
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
The Interaction Of Implicit And Explicit Contracts In Repeated Agency, Martin Shubik
The Interaction Of Implicit And Explicit Contracts In Repeated Agency, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This article deals with experimental games as they pertain to game theory. As such there is a natural distinction between experimentation with abstract games devoted to testing a specific hypothesis in game theory and games with a scenario from a discipline such as economics or political science where the game is presented in the context of some particular activity.
The Macroeconomics Of Government Finance, Michael Haliassos, James Tobin
The Macroeconomics Of Government Finance, Michael Haliassos, James Tobin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper establishes the asymptotic normality of series estimators for nonparametric regression models. Gallant’s Fourier flexible form estimators, trigonometric series estimators, and polynomial series estimators are prime examples of the estimators covered by the results. The results apply to a wide variety of estimands in the regression model under consideration, including derivatives and integrals of the regression function. The errors in the model may be homoskedastic or heteroskeclastic. The paper also considers series estimators for additive interactive regression (AIR), seimparametric regression, and semiparametric index regression models and shows them to be consistent and asymptotically normal. All of the consistency and …
A New Proof Of Knight's Theorem On The Cauchy Distribution, Peter C.B. Phillips
A New Proof Of Knight's Theorem On The Cauchy Distribution, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We offer a new and straightforward proof of F.B. Knight’s [3] theorem that the Cauchy type is characterized by the fact that it has no atom and is invariant under the involution i : x → –1/ x . Our approach uses the representation X = tan θ where θ is uniform on (–π/2, π/2) when X is standard Cauchy. A matrix generalization of this characterization theorem is also given.
A Little Magic With The Cauchy Distribution, Peter C.B. Phillips
A Little Magic With The Cauchy Distribution, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The standard Cauchy distribution is completely characterized by theproperty that it has no atmos and is distributionally equivalent under the involution X → – 1/ X , i.e., X ≡ – 1/ X . Since maximum likelihood is invariant to the choice of normalization rule in structural equation estimation this property establishes that the LIML estimator is standard Cauchy in the leading case of a canonical structural equation. This is a proof by identifying characteristics and is a major improvement over the usual apparatus of change of variable methods and reductions by multiple integration. The new approach has applications in …
The Shapes Of Polyhedra, Ravi Kannan, László Lovász, Herbert E. Scarf
The Shapes Of Polyhedra, Ravi Kannan, László Lovász, Herbert E. Scarf
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
No abstract provided.
Nonparametric And Distribution-Free Estimation Of The Binary Choice And The Threshold-Crossing Models, Rosa L. Matzkin
Nonparametric And Distribution-Free Estimation Of The Binary Choice And The Threshold-Crossing Models, Rosa L. Matzkin
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the problem of nonparametric identification and estimation of binary threshold-crossing and binary choice models. First, conditions are given that guarantee the nonparametric identification of both the function of exogenous observable variables and the distribution of the random terms. Second, the identification results are employed to develop strongly consistent estimation methods that are nonparametric in both the function of observable exogenous variables and the distribution of the unobservable random variables. The estimators are obtained by maximizing a likelihood function over nonparametric sets of functions. A two-step constrained optimization procedure is devised to compute these estimators.