Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Mechanism design (33)
- Asymptotic size (26)
- Bayes correlated equilibrium (25)
- Incomplete information (25)
- Unit root (25)
-
- Adverse selection (24)
- Information structure (24)
- Test (24)
- Climate change (23)
- Cointegration (22)
- Identification (22)
- Asymptotics (21)
- Default (21)
- Moment inequalities (21)
- Nonstationarity (21)
- Confidence set (20)
- Productivity (20)
- Asymptotic theory (19)
- Robustness (19)
- Autoregression (18)
- Common knowledge (18)
- Game theory (18)
- Moral hazard (18)
- Weak instruments (18)
- Brownian motion (17)
- Correlated equilibrium (17)
- General equilibrium (17)
- Long memory (17)
- Unit roots (17)
- Experimentation (16)
- Publication Year
Articles 1861 - 1890 of 2768
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
The Power Of Commitment, Chien-Fu Chou, John Geanakoplos
The Power Of Commitment, Chien-Fu Chou, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
History has seen many examples of the lone man — like Christ, Luther, Gandhi, or Hitler — who without initial wealth or position, succeeds in changing the behavior of an entire society, for good or for ill. Whence comes this power. No doubt such leaders have possessed extraordinary ability, and have formulated original ideas with great appeal which others could readily follow. But there is another striking similarity among these leaders; namely their single-minded devotion to their, ideals, and their uncompromising attitude toward those who opposed them, no matter what the personal cost. There is hardly any need to document …
Correlated Equilibrium With Generalized Information Structures, Adam Brandenburger, Eddie Dekel, John Geanakoplos
Correlated Equilibrium With Generalized Information Structures, Adam Brandenburger, Eddie Dekel, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study the “generalized correlated equilibria” of a game when players make information processing errors. It is shown that the assumption of information processing errors is equivalent to that of “subjectivity” (i.e., differences between the players’ priors). Hence a bounded rationality justification of subjective priors is provided. We also describe the set of distributions on actions induced by generalized correlated equilibria with common priors.
Default And Efficiency In A General Equilibrium Model With Incomplete Markets, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Default And Efficiency In A General Equilibrium Model With Incomplete Markets, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We extend the standard model of general equilibrium with incomplete markets (GEI) to allow for default. Default can be either strategic, or due to ill-fortune. Agents who default are penalized to a degree proportional to the size of their default and to penalty parameters lambda. We find that under conditions similar to those necessary to guarantee the existence of GEI equilibrium, we get the existence of GEI λ equilibrium, for any λ > 0. We argue that default is thus reasonably modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon. Moreover, we show that more lenient lambda which encourage default may be Pareto improving because …
Estimation And Inference In Models Of Cointegration: A Simulation Study, Bruce E. Hansen, Peter C.B. Phillips
Estimation And Inference In Models Of Cointegration: A Simulation Study, Bruce E. Hansen, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the finite sample distributions of estimators of the cointegrating vector of linear regression models with I(1) variables. Attention is concentrated on the least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) methods analyzed in other recent work (Phillips and Hansen (1988)). The general preference of OLS to IV techniques suggested by asymptotic theory is reinforced by our simulations. An exception arises for cases of low signal to noise, where spurious IV techniques (so named for their use of instruments that are structurally unrelated to the model) outperform uncorrected least squares. We verify the presence of a small sample estimation …
Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is concerned with the estimation of covariance matrices in the presence of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown forms. Currently available estimators that are designed for this context depend upon the choice of a lag truncation parameter and a weighting scheme. No results are available, however, regarding the choice of a lag truncation parameter for a fixed sample size, regarding data-dependent automatic lag truncation parameters, or regarding the choice of weighing scheme. In consequence, available estimators are not entirely operational and the relative merits of the estimators are unknown.
The Stabilization Of The U.S. Economy: Evidence From The Stock Market, Matthew D. Shapiro
The Stabilization Of The U.S. Economy: Evidence From The Stock Market, Matthew D. Shapiro
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Until recently, economists widely believed that economic activity had become less variable in the United States following the end of World War II. Challenging this belief, new research suggests that key historical time series are spuriously volatile, a finding that is highly controversial. Data from the stock market may provide a vehicle for resolving the controversy. Economic theory relates stock prices to real activity; empirical tests also show a strong link between stock prices and activity. Financial data are accurately measured over long spans of time and hence are free of most of the measurement problems in other time series. …
Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Heteroskedasticity And Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper is concerned with the estimation of covariance matrices in the presence of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation of unknown forms. Currently available estimators that are designed for this context depend upon the choice of a lag truncation parameter and a weighting scheme. Results in the literature provide a condition on the growth rate of the lag truncation parameter as T → ∞ that is sufficient for consistency. No results are available, however, regarding the choice of a lag truncation parameter for a fixed sample size, regarding data-dependent automatic lag truncation parameters, or regarding the choice of weighing scheme. In consequence, …
Capital Structure And Dividend Irrelevance With Asymmetric Information, Philip H. Dybvig, Jaime F. Zender
Capital Structure And Dividend Irrelevance With Asymmetric Information, Philip H. Dybvig, Jaime F. Zender
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The Modigliani and Miller propositions on the irrelevancy of capital structure and dividends are shown to be valid in a large class of models with asymmetric information. The main assumption is that managerial compensation is chosen optimally. This differs from most recent papers on this topic, which impose by fiat a suboptimal contract. Even when imperfections internal to the firm preclude optimal investment, there is a separation between incentives and financing. We also show that making prices reflect idiosyncratic information more accurately does not make investors better off, thus negating the motivation of many of the signalling models.
Error Correction And Long Run Equilibrium In Continuous Time, Peter C.B. Phillips
Error Correction And Long Run Equilibrium In Continuous Time, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper deals with error correction models (ECM’s) and cointegrated systems that are formulated in continuous time. Problems of representation, identification, estimation and time aggregation are discussed. It is shown that every ECM in continuous time has a discrete time equivalent model in ECM format. Moreover, both models may be written as triangular systems with stationary errors. This formulation simplifies both the continuous and the discrete time ECM representations and it helps to motivate a class of optimal inference procedures. It is further shown that long run equilibria in the continuous system are always identified in the discrete time reduced …
Spectral Regression For Cointegrated Time Series, Peter C.B. Phillips
Spectral Regression For Cointegrated Time Series, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the use of spectral regression techniques in the context of cointegrated systems of multiple time series. Several alternatives are considered including efficient and band spectral methods as well as system and single equation techniques. It is shown that single equation spectral regressions suffer asymptotic bias and nuisance parameter problems that render these regressions impotent for inferential purposes. By contrast systems methods are shown to be covered by LAMN asymptotic theory, bringing the advantages of asymptotic media unbiasedness, scale nuisance parameters and the convenience of asymptotic chi-squared tests. System spectral methods also have advantages over full system direct …
Spanning, Valuation And Options, Donald J. Brown, Stephen A. Ross
Spanning, Valuation And Options, Donald J. Brown, Stephen A. Ross
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We model the space of marketed assets as a Riesz space of commodities. In this setting, two alternative characterizations are given of the space of continuous options on a bounded asset, s, with limited liability. The first characterization represents every continuous option on s as the uniform limit of portfolios of calls on s. The second characterization represents an option as a continuous sum (or integral) of Arrow-Debreu securities, with respect to s. The pricing implications of these representations are explored. In particular, the Breeden-Litzenberger pricing formula is shown to be a direct consequence of the integral representation theorem.
Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Maintained Trend, Sam Ouliaris, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Maintained Trend, Sam Ouliaris, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops statistics for detecting the presence of a unit root in time series data against the alternative stationarity. Unlike most existing procedures, the new tests allow for deterministic trend polynomials in the maintained hypothesis. They may be used to discriminate between unit root nonstationarity and processes which are stationary around a deterministic polynomial trend. The tests allow for both forms of nonstationarity under the null hypothesis. Moreover, the tests allow for a wide class of weakly dependent and possibly heterogenously distributed procedures. We illustrate the use of the new tests by applying them to a number a models …
Asymptotic Normality Of Series Estimators For Nonparametric And Semiparametric Regression Models, Donald W.K. Andrews
Asymptotic Normality Of Series Estimators For Nonparametric And Semiparametric Regression Models, Donald W.K. Andrews
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper establishes the asymptotic normality of series estimators for nonparametric regression models. Gallant’s Fourier flexible form estimators, trigonometric series estimators, and polynomial series estimators are prime examples of the estimators covered by the results. The results apply to a wide variety of estimands in the regression model under consideration, including derivatives and integrals of the regression function. The errors in the model may be homoskedastic or heteroskeclastic. The paper also considers series estimators for additive interactive regression (AIR), seimparametric regression, and semiparametric index regression models and shows them to be consistent and asymptotically normal. All of the consistency and …
Information And Timing In Repeated Partnerships, Dilip Abreu, Paul R. Milgrom, David G. Pearce
Information And Timing In Repeated Partnerships, Dilip Abreu, Paul R. Milgrom, David G. Pearce
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In a repeated partnership game with imperfect monitoring, we distinguish among the effects of (1) shortening the period over which actions are held fixed, (2) increasing the frequency with which accumulated information is reported, and (3) reducing the amount of discounting of payoffs between successive periods. While reducing the amount of discounting generally improves incentives for cooperation, the other two changes can have the reverse effect. When the game is specified in the customary way with information reported at the end of each period of fixed action, the net effect of shortening the period length can be to destroy all …
Sources Of Business Cycle Fluctuations, Matthew D. Shapiro, Mark W. Watson
Sources Of Business Cycle Fluctuations, Matthew D. Shapiro, Mark W. Watson
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
What shocks account for the business cycle frequency and long run movements of output and prices? This paper addresses this question using the identifying assumption that only supply shocks, such as shocks to technology, oil prices, and labor supply affect output in the long run. Real and monetary aggregate demand shocks can affect output, but only in the short run. This assumption sufficiently restricts the reduced form of key macroeconomic variables to allow estimation of the shocks and their effect on output and price at all frequencies. Aggregate demand shocks account for about twenty to thirty percent of output fluctuations …
Knightian Decision Theory And Econometric Inference, Truman F. Bewley
Knightian Decision Theory And Econometric Inference, Truman F. Bewley
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper I attempt to reconcile the apparent definiteness of econometric practice with the vagueness of subjective probabilities assumed in Knightian decision theory. I argue that some standard uses of classical inference are Knightian in spirit, even though the formal justification of classical methods uses the frequentist notion of probability. Classical confidence regions may be viewed as defining sets of posterior means corresponding to a standardized set of prior distributions. Tests of the null hypothesis that a parameter equals a particular value may be viewed as determining whether it is rational, from a Knightian point of view, to act …
Warranties As Signals Under Consumer Moral Hazard, Nancy A. Lutz
Warranties As Signals Under Consumer Moral Hazard, Nancy A. Lutz
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper, I examine whether and how warranties serve as signals of product quality in an environment where there are opportunities for consumer moral hazard. My model is very similar to Grossman’s. A risk neutral monopolist produced a good of fixed and exogenous quality. This product is offered to a market of identical risk-averse consumers, and it can be bundled with a warranty of the monopolist’s choosing. The probability that the product breaks down is a function of its quality and the effort the consumer takes in using it. This consumer effort cannot be observed by the monopolist or …
Gold, Liquidity And Secured Loans In A Multistage Economy. Part I: Gold As Money, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Gold, Liquidity And Secured Loans In A Multistage Economy. Part I: Gold As Money, Martin Shubik, Shuntian Yao
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A multiperiod exchange economy with gold used both as money and as jewelry is examined in this paper. The existence of Nash equilibria is proved for the market games with finitely many traders as well as the games with a continuum of traders. For market games with a continuum of traders at infinite horizon, the existence of stationary Nash equilibria has been proved under the assumption that gold is properly distributed at the beginning or a secured loan between traders is available.
Statistical Inference In Instrumental Variables Regression With I(1) Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Bruce E. Hansen
Statistical Inference In Instrumental Variables Regression With I(1) Processes, Peter C.B. Phillips, Bruce E. Hansen
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the asymptotic properties of instrumental variable (IV) estimates of multivariate cointegrating regressions. The framework of study is based on earlier work by Phillips and Durlauf (1986) and Park and Phillips (1988, 1989). In particular, the results in these papers are extended to allow for IV regressions that accommodate deterministic and stochastic regressors as well as quite general deterministic processes in the data generating mechanism. It is found that IV regressions are consistent even when the instruments are stochastically independent of the regressors. This phenomenon, which contrasts with traditional theory for stationary time series, is a beneficial artifact …
Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller
Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper presents estimates indicating that, for aggregate U.S. stock market data 1871-1986, a long historical average of real earnings is a good predictor of the present value of future real dividends. This is true even when the information contained in stock prices is taken into account. We estimate that for each year the optimal forecast of the present value of future real dividends is roughly a weighted average of moving average earnings and current real price, with between 2/3 and 3/4 of the weight on the earnings measure. This means that simple present value models of stock market prices …
Increases In Risk Aversion And Portfolio Choice In A Complete Market, Philip H. Dybvig
Increases In Risk Aversion And Portfolio Choice In A Complete Market, Philip H. Dybvig
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This note examines the effect of changes in risk aversion on the optimal portfolio choice in a complete market. It is shown that an agent who is less risk averse in the Pratt (1964) sense than another will choose a portfolio whose payoff is distributed as the other’s payoff plus a nonnegative random variable plus conditional-mean-zero noise. The proof of the result uses simple first order conditions and basic results from stochastic dominance.
Common Knowledge Of Summary Statistics, Adam Brandenburger, John Geanakoplos
Common Knowledge Of Summary Statistics, Adam Brandenburger, John Geanakoplos
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Consider a group of people who are asked to offer their opinions on some issue. “Business confidence” surveys are an example: groups of businessmen are often asked for their predictions of economic indicators such as growth or inflation rates. Each member of the group makes a prediction based on his or her private information, and the average prediction is then publicly announced. If the members of the group are then allowed to revise their opinions, based on whatever information they glean from the public announcement, is there any tendency for the opinions in the group to converge on a common, …
Nonnegative Wealth, Absence Of Arbitrage, And Feasible Consumption Plans, Philip H. Dybvig, Chi-Fu Huang
Nonnegative Wealth, Absence Of Arbitrage, And Feasible Consumption Plans, Philip H. Dybvig, Chi-Fu Huang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A restriction to nonnegative wealth is sufficient to preclude all arbitrage opportunities in financial models that have risk neutral probabilities that are valid for all simple strategies. Imposing nonnegative wealth does not constrain agents from making the choice they would make under the standard integrability condition. This conclusion does not depend on whether the markets are complete.
Appropriating The Returns From Industrial R&D, Richard C. Levin, Alvin K. Klevorick, Richard R. Nelson, Sidney G. Winter
Appropriating The Returns From Industrial R&D, Richard C. Levin, Alvin K. Klevorick, Richard R. Nelson, Sidney G. Winter
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In this paper, we describe the results of an inquiry into the nature of appropriability conditions in over one hundred manufacturing industries, and we discuss how this information has been and might be used to cast light on important issues in the economics of innovation and public policy. Our data, derived from a survey of high-level R&D executives, are informed opinions about the nature of an industry’s technological and economic environment rather than quantitative measures of inputs and outputs.
Generic Inefficiency Of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Michael Magill, Martine Quinzii, Jacques Dréze
Generic Inefficiency Of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete, John Geanakoplos, Michael Magill, Martine Quinzii, Jacques Dréze
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
A stock market is a mechanism by which the ownership and control of firms is determined through the trading of securities. It is on this market that many of the major risks faced by society are shared through the exchange of securities and the production decisions that influence the present and future supply of resources are determined. If the overall structure of markets is incomplete can the stock market be expected to perform its role of exchanging risks and allocating investment efficiently? It is this question that we seek to answer.
Distributions, Peter C.B. Phillips
Distributions, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Formulae are derived for the characteristic function of the inverted Dirichlet distribution and hence the multivariate F . The analysis involves a new function with multiple arguments that extends the confluent hypergeometric function of the second kind. This function and its properties are studied in the paper and a simple integral representation is given which is useful for numerical work. A special case connected with the multivariate t distribution is also explored.
A Centered Projective Algorithm For Linear Programming, Michael J. Todd, Yinyu Ye
A Centered Projective Algorithm For Linear Programming, Michael J. Todd, Yinyu Ye
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We describe a projective algorithm for linear programming that shares features with Karmarkar’s projective algorithm and its variants and with the path-following methods of Gonzaga, Kojima-Mizuno-Yoshise, Monteiro-Adler, Renegar, Vaidya and Ye. It operates in a primal-dual setting, stays close to the central trajectories, and converges in O ( /n x L ) iterations like the latter methods. (Here n is the number of variables and L the input size of the problem). However, it is motivated by seeking reductions in a suitable potential function as in projective algorithms, and the approximate centering is an automatic byproduct of our choice of …
Optimal Inference In Cointegrated Systems, Peter C.B. Phillips
Optimal Inference In Cointegrated Systems, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the properties of maximum likelihood estimates of co-integrated systems. Alternative formulations of such models are considered including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. It is shown that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within the family that is covered by the locally asymptotically mixed normal asymptotic theory provided that all unit roots in the system have been eliminated by specification and data transformation. This result has far reaching consequences. It means that cointegrating coefficient estimates are symmetrically distributed and median unbiased asymptotically, that an optimal asymptotic theory of inference applies and that hypothesis …
The Informational Content Of Ex Ante Forecasts, Ray C. Fair, Robert J. Shiller
The Informational Content Of Ex Ante Forecasts, Ray C. Fair, Robert J. Shiller
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ante forecasts: the American Statistical Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASA). Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), and Wharton Economic Forecasting Associates (WEFA). We compare these forecasts to each other and to “quasi ex ante” forecasts generated from a vector autoregressive model, an autoregressive components model and a large-scale structural model (the Fair model).
Var Models As Structural Approximations, Ray C. Fair
Var Models As Structural Approximations, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper presents a way of estimating how accurate VAR models are likely to be for answering structural questions. Data are generated from a dynamic deterministic solution of a structural model; a VAR model is estimated using a subset of these data; and the properties of the VAR model are compared to the properties of the structural model. This procedure has the advantage of eliminating the effects of error terms, since the data are generated for a deterministic simulation. The results show that the VAR models do not seem to be good structural approximations.