Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Mechanism design (33)
- Asymptotic size (26)
- Bayes correlated equilibrium (25)
- Incomplete information (25)
- Unit root (25)
-
- Adverse selection (24)
- Information structure (24)
- Test (24)
- Climate change (23)
- Cointegration (22)
- Identification (22)
- Asymptotics (21)
- Default (21)
- Moment inequalities (21)
- Nonstationarity (21)
- Confidence set (20)
- Productivity (20)
- Asymptotic theory (19)
- Robustness (19)
- Autoregression (18)
- Common knowledge (18)
- Game theory (18)
- Moral hazard (18)
- Weak instruments (18)
- Brownian motion (17)
- Correlated equilibrium (17)
- General equilibrium (17)
- Long memory (17)
- Unit roots (17)
- Experimentation (16)
- Publication Year
Articles 361 - 390 of 2768
Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences
Intertemporal Price Discrimination In Sequential Quantity-Price Games, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams
Intertemporal Price Discrimination In Sequential Quantity-Price Games, James D. Dana Jr., Kevin R. Williams
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops an oligopoly model in which firms first choose capacity and then compete in prices in a series of advance-purchase markets. We show the existence of multiple sales opportunities creates strong competitive forces that prevent firms from utilizing intertemporal price discrimination. We then show that intertemporal price discrimination is possible, but only when firms adopt inventory controls (sales limit restrictions) and demand becomes more inelastic over time. Therefore, in addition to being useful to manage demand uncertainty, inventory controls are also a tool to soften price competition. We also discuss model extensions, including product differentiation, aggregate demand uncertainty, …
Speculation And Price Indeterminacy In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study, Shinichi Hirota, Juergen Huber, Thomas Stöckl, Shyam Sunder
Speculation And Price Indeterminacy In Financial Markets: An Experimental Study, Shinichi Hirota, Juergen Huber, Thomas Stöckl, Shyam Sunder
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
To explore how speculative trading influences prices in financial markets, we conduct a laboratory market experiment with speculating investors (who do not collect dividends and trade only for capital gains) and dividend-collecting investors. Moreover, we operate markets at two different levels of money supply. We find that in phases with only speculating investors present (i) price deviations from fundamentals are larger; (ii) prices are more volatile; (iii) mispricing increases with the number of transfers until maturity; and (iv) speculative trading pushes prices upward (downward) when the supply of money is high (low). These results suggest that controlling the money supply …
First-Price Auctions With General Information Structures: A Short Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
First-Price Auctions With General Information Structures: A Short Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In a recent paper, [Bergemann et al. 2017a], we derive results about equilibrium behavior in the first-price auction that hold across all common-prior information structures. The purpose of this letter is to give an informal introduction into the results. At the end we offer a brief discussion of related work.
Revenue Guarantee Equivalence, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Revenue Guarantee Equivalence, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We revisit the revenue comparison of standard auction formats, including first-price, second-price, and English auctions. We rank auctions according to their revenue guarantees, i.e., the greatest lower bound of revenue across all informational environments, where we hold fixed the distribution of bidders' values. We conclude that if we restrict attention to the symmetric affiliated models of Milgrom and Weber (1982) and monotonic pure-strategy equilibria, first-price, second-price, and English auctions all have the same revenue guarantee, which is equal to that of the first-price auction as characterized by Bergemann, Brooks, and Morris (2017a). If we consider all equilibria or if we …
Asymptotic Theory For Near Integrated Process Driven By Tempered Linear Process, Farzad Sabzikar, Qiying Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips
Asymptotic Theory For Near Integrated Process Driven By Tempered Linear Process, Farzad Sabzikar, Qiying Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for near-integrated random processes and some associated regressions when the errors are tempered linear processes. Tempered processes are stationary time series that have a semi-long memory property in the sense that the autocovariogram of the process resembles that of a long memory model for moderate lags but eventually diminishes exponentially fast according to the presence of a decay factor governed by a tempering parameter. When the tempering parameter is sample size dependent, the resulting class of processes admits a wide range of behavior that includes both long memory, semi-long memory, and short memory processes. …
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We formulate a model of social interactions and misinferences by agents who neglect assortativity in their society, mistakenly believing that they interact with a representative sample of the population. A key component of our approach is the interplay between this bias and agents’ strategic incentives. We highlight a mechanism through which assortativity neglect, combined with strategic complementarities in agents’ behavior, drives up action dispersion in society (e.g., socioeconomic disparities in education investment). We also show how the combination of assortativity neglect and strategic incentives may help to explain empirically documented misperceptions of income inequality and political attitude polarization.
Global Melting? The Economics Of Disintegration Of The Greenland Ice Sheet, William D. Nordhaus
Global Melting? The Economics Of Disintegration Of The Greenland Ice Sheet, William D. Nordhaus
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). The method is to combine a small geophysical model of the GIS with the DICE integrated assessment model. The result shows that the GIS is likely to disappear over the next millennium or so without climate policy, but an active climate policy may prevent the GIS from crossing the threshold of irreversibility. Additionally, the study estimates the impact of the GIS on …
The Persistent Power Of Promises, Florian Ederer, Frédéric Schneider
The Persistent Power Of Promises, Florian Ederer, Frédéric Schneider
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper investigates how the passage of time affects trust, trustworthiness, and cooperation. We use a hybrid lab and online experiment to provide the first evidence for the persistent power of communication. Even when 3 weeks pass between messages and actual choices, communication raises cooperation, trust, and trustworthiness by about 50 percent. Lags between the beginning of the interaction and the time to respond do not substantially alter trust or trustworthiness. Our results further suggest that the findings of the large experimental literature on trust that focuses on laboratory scenarios in which subjects are forced to choose their actions immediately …
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We take an equilibrium-based approach to study the interplay between behavior and misperceptions in coordination games with assortative interactions. Our focus is assortativity neglect, where agents fail to take into account the extent of assortativity in society. We show, first, that assortativity neglect amplifies action dispersion, both in fixed societies and by exacerbating the effect of social changes. Second, unlike other misperceptions, assortativity neglect is a misperception that agents can rationalize in any true environment. Finally, assortativity neglect provides a lens through which to understand how empirically documented misperceptions about distributions of population characteristics (e.g., income inequality) vary across societies.
Experiment-As-Market: Incorporating Welfare Into Randomized Controlled Trials, Yusuke Narita
Experiment-As-Market: Incorporating Welfare Into Randomized Controlled Trials, Yusuke Narita
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) enroll hundreds of millions of subjects and involve many human lives. To improve subjects’ welfare, I propose a design of RCTs that I call Experiment-as-Market (EXAM). EXAM produces a Pareto efficient allocation of treatment assignment probabilities, is asymptotically incentive compatible for preference elicitation, and unbiasedly estimates any causal effect estimable with standard RCTs. I quantify these properties by applying EXAM to a water cleaning experiment in Kenya (Kremer et al., 2011). In this empirical setting, compared to standard RCTs, EXAM substantially improves subjects’ predicted well-being while reaching similar treatment effect estimates with similar precision.
Toward An Ethical Experiment, Yusuke Narita
Toward An Ethical Experiment, Yusuke Narita
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) enroll hundreds of millions of subjects and involve many human lives. To improve subjects’ welfare, I propose an alternative design of RCTs that I call Experiment-as-Market (EXAM). EXAM Pareto optimally randomly assigns each treatment to subjects predicted to experience better treatment effects or to subjects with stronger preferences for the treatment. EXAM is also asymptotically incentive compatible for preference elicitation. Finally, EXAM unbiasedly estimates any causal effect estimable with standard RCTs. I quantify the welfare, incentive, and information properties by applying EXAM to a water cleaning experiment in Kenya (Kremer et al., 2011). Compared to standard …
Entry Games Under Private Information, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Álvaro Parra
Entry Games Under Private Information, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Álvaro Parra
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study market entry decisions when firms have private information about their profitability. We generalize current models by allowing general forms of market competition and heterogeneous firms that self-select when entering the market. Post-entry profits depend on market structure, and on the identities and the private information of the entering firms. We introduce a notion of the firm's strength and show that an equilibrium where players' strategies are ranked by strength, or herculean equilibrium, always exists. Moreover, when profits are elastic enough with respect to the firm's private information, the herculean equilibrium is the unique equilibrium of the game.
The Persistent Power Of Promises, Florian Ederer, Frédéric Schneider
The Persistent Power Of Promises, Florian Ederer, Frédéric Schneider
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Using a large-scale hybrid laboratory and online trust experiment with pre-play communication this paper investigates how the passage of time affects trust, trustworthiness, and cooperation. We provide evidence for the persistent power of communication. Even when three weeks pass between messages and actual choices and even when these choices are made outside of the lab, communication (predominantly through the use of promises) raises cooperation, trust, and trustworthiness by about 50 percent. Delays between the beginning of the interaction and the time to reciprocate neither substantially alter trust or trustworthiness nor affect how subjects choose to communicate.
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We formulate a model of social interactions and misinferences by agents who neglect assortativity in their society, mistakenly believing that they interact with a representative sample of the population. A key component of our approach is the interplay between this bias and agents’ strategic incentives. We highlight a mechanism through which assortativity neglect, combined with strategic complementarities in agents’ behavior, drives up action dispersion in society (e.g., socioeconomic disparities in education investment). We also suggest that the combination of assortativity neglect and strategic incentives may be relevant in understanding empirically documented misperceptions of income inequality and political attitude polarization.
Equilibrium Uniqueness In Entry Games With Private Information, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Álvaro Parra, Yuzhou Wang
Equilibrium Uniqueness In Entry Games With Private Information, José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez, Álvaro Parra, Yuzhou Wang
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We study equilibrium uniqueness in entry games with private information. Our framework embeds models commonly used in applied work, allowing rich forms of firm heterogeneity and selective entry. We introduce the notion of strength, which summarizes a firm’s ability to endure competition. In environments of applied interest, an equilibrium in which entry strategies are ranked according to strength, called herculean equilibrium, always exists. Thus, when the entry game has a unique equilibrium, it must be herculean. We derive simple sufficient conditions guaranteeing equilibrium uniqueness and, consequently, robust counterfactual analyses.
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Dispersed Behavior And Perceptions In Assortative Societies, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Motivated by the fact that people’s perceptions of their societies are routinely incorrect, we study the possibility and implications of misperception in social interactions. We focus on coordination games with assortative interactions, where agents with higher types (e.g., wealth, political attitudes) are more likely than lower types to interact with other high types. Assortativity creates scope for misperception, because what agents observe in their local interactions need not be representative of society as a whole. To model this, we define a tractable solution concept, “local perception equilibrium” (LPE), that describes possible behavior and perceptions when agents’ beliefs are derived only …
When Salespeople Manage Customer Relationships: Multidimensional Incentives And Private Information, Minkyung Kim, K. Sudhir, Kosuke Uetake, Rodrigo Canales
When Salespeople Manage Customer Relationships: Multidimensional Incentives And Private Information, Minkyung Kim, K. Sudhir, Kosuke Uetake, Rodrigo Canales
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
At many firms, incentivized salespeople with private information about customers are responsible for CRM. While incentives motivate sales performance, private information can induce moral hazard by salespeople to gain compensation at the expense of the firm. We investigate the sales performance–moral hazard tradeoff in response to multidimensional performance (acquisition and maintenance) incentives in the presence of private information. Using unique panel data on customer loan acquisition and repayments linked to salespeople from a microfinance bank, we detect evidence of salesperson private information. Acquisition incentives induce salesperson moral hazard leading to adverse customer selection, but maintenance incentives moderate it as salespeople …
A Theory Of Cooperation In Games With An Application To Market Socialism, John E. Roemer
A Theory Of Cooperation In Games With An Application To Market Socialism, John E. Roemer
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Economic theory has focused almost exclusively on how humans compete with each other in their economic activity, culminating in general equilibrium (Walras) and game theory (Nash). Cooperation in economic activity is, however, important, and is virtually ignored. Because our models influence our view of the world, this theoretical lacuna biases economists’ interpretation of economic behavior. Here, I propose models that provide micro-foundations for how cooperation is decentralized by economic agents. It is wrong, in particular, to view competition as decentralized and cooperation as organized only by central diktat. My approach is not to alter preferences, which is the strategy behavioral …
Explaining The Slow U.S.Recovery: 2010–2017, Ray C. Fair
Explaining The Slow U.S.Recovery: 2010–2017, Ray C. Fair
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper argues that the slow U.S. recovery after the 2008–2009 recession was due to sluggish government spending. The analysis uses a structural macroeconometric model. Conditional on government policy, the errors in predicting output for the 2009.4–2017.4 period are within what one would expect historically. Productivity and labor force participation are endogenous variables in the model, and so their behavior in this period is a consequence of the slow growth rather than a cause.
Intuitive Solutions In Game Representations: The Shapley Value Revisited, Pradeep Dubey
Intuitive Solutions In Game Representations: The Shapley Value Revisited, Pradeep Dubey
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We show that any transferable utility game can be represented by an assignment of facilities to players, in which it is intuitively obvious how to allocate the total cost of the facilities. The intuitive solution in the representation turns out to be the Shapley value of the game, and thus serves as an alternative justification of the value.
Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena
Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The 1996 US welfare reform introduced limits on years of welfare receipt. We show that this reduced program participation, raised employment for single mothers, and reduced divorce. A limited commitment, lifecycle model of labor supply, marriage and divorce, estimated on pre-reform data, replicates these effects. A large part of the responses occur in anticipation of benefit exhaustion, impacting primarily women with low potential earnings. The reform reduces lifetime utility of women, even allowing for the government savings, but has negligible effects on men. The expectation of marriage attenuates the losses for women and an increased probability of single-motherhood raises them.
Competing For Talent, Yuhta Ishii, Aniko Öry, Adrien Vigier
Competing For Talent, Yuhta Ishii, Aniko Öry, Adrien Vigier
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
In many labor markets, e.g., for lawyers, consultants, MBA students, and professional sport players, workers get offered and sign long-term contracts even though waiting could reveal significant information about their capabilities. This phenomenon is called unraveling. We examine the link between wage bargaining and unraveling. Two firms, an incumbent and an entrant, compete to hire a worker of unknown talent. Informational frictions prevent the incumbent from always observing the entrant’s arrival, inducing unraveling in all equilibria. We analyze the extent of unraveling, surplus shares, the average talent of employed workers, and the distribution of wages within and across firms.
Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimation With Stata, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Fernández-Val, Sukjin Han, Amanda E. Kowalski
Censored Quantile Instrumental Variable Estimation With Stata, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Fernández-Val, Sukjin Han, Amanda E. Kowalski
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Many applications involve a censored dependent variable and an endogenous independent variable. Chernozhukov et al. (2015) introduced a censored quantile instrumental variable estimator (CQIV) for use in those applications, which has been applied by Kowalski (2016), among others. In this article, we introduce a Stata command, cqiv, that simplifies application of the CQIV estimator in Stata. We summarize the CQIV estimator and algorithm, we describe the use of the cqiv command, and we provide empirical examples.
Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena
Marriage, Labor Supply And The Dynamics Of The Social Safety Net, Hamish Low, Costas Meghir, Luigi Pistaferri, Alessandra Voena
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
The 1996 PRWORA reform introduced time limits on the receipt of welfare in the United States. We use variation by state and across demographic groups to provide reduced form evidence showing that such limits led to a fall in welfare claims (partly due to \banking” benefits for future use), a rise in employment, and a decline in divorce rates. We then specify and estimate a life-cycle model of marriage, labor supply and divorce under limited commitment to better understand the mechanisms behind these behavioral responses, carry out counterfactual analysis with longer run impacts and evaluate the welfare effects of the …
Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity For Environmental Policy, Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker
Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity For Environmental Policy, Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides the first estimates of within-industry heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity for the entire U.S. manufacturing sector. We measure energy and CO2 productivity as output per dollar energy input or per ton CO2 emitted. Three findings emerge. First, within narrowly defined industries, heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity across plants is enormous. Second, heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity exceeds heterogeneity in most other productivity measures, like labor or total factor productivity. Third, heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity has important implications for environmental policies targeting industries rather than plants, including technology standards and carbon border adjustments.
The Paradox Of Competition: Power, Markets, And Money - Who Gets What, When, How?, Martin Shubik
The Paradox Of Competition: Power, Markets, And Money - Who Gets What, When, How?, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Money is a mystery and financial institutions are often regarded as guardians and promoters of the mystery. These sketches are designed to help any reader interested in, but not technically trained in economics, understand markets, money, credit and the evolution of a mass market system set in the rich context of its political environment and society. We all want a good society. What is a good society is given by our joint vision, mutual respect and social concern but the implementation of the vision calls for the use and understanding of money, markets and finance. The efficient functioning of a …
Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity For Environmental Policy, Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker
Regulating Mismeasured Pollution: Implications Of Firm Heterogeneity For Environmental Policy, Eva Lyubich, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper provides the first estimates of within-industry heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity for the entire U.S. manufacturing sector. We measure energy and CO2 productivity as output per dollar energy input or per ton CO2 emitted. Three findings emerge. First, within narrowly de ned industries, heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity across plants is enormous. Second, heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity exceeds heterogeneity in most other productivity measures, like labor or total factor productivity. Third, heterogeneity in energy and CO2 productivity has important implications for environmental policies targeting industries rather than plants, including technology standards and carbon border …
Who Gets What, When, How? Power, Organization, Markets, Money And The Allocation Of Resources, Martin Shubik
Who Gets What, When, How? Power, Organization, Markets, Money And The Allocation Of Resources, Martin Shubik
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
Money is a mystery and financial institutions are often regarded as guardians and promoters of the mystery. These sketches are designed to help an individual interested in, but not technically trained in economics, understand markets, money, credit and the evolution of a mass market system embedded in the rich context of its political environment and society. The efficient functioning of a dynamic economy requires the presence of money and financial institutions. The great variety of financial institutions in any advanced economy requires that a synthetic approach is used to understand what the whole looks like. Verbal description provides an overarching …
Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing And Systemic Implications, Robert J. Shiller, Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, Mark B. Shackleton
Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing And Systemic Implications, Robert J. Shiller, Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, Mark B. Shackleton
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
This paper studies the Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM), a two in one product: a fixed rate home loan coupled with negative equity insurance, to advocate its viability in mitigating financial fragility. In order to tackle the many issues that CWMs embrace, we perform a range of tasks. We optimally price CWMs and take a systemic market-based approach, stipulating that mortgage values and payments should be linked to housing prices and adjusted downward to prevent negative equity. We illustrate that amortizing CWMs can be the efficient home financing choice for many households. We price CWMs as American option style, defaulting debt …
Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation And Inference On Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár
Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation And Inference On Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional mean of the outcome variable, we derive estimators and confidence intervals (CIs) that are optimal infinite samples when the regression errors are normal with known variance. In contrast to conventional CIs, our CIs use a larger critical value that explicitly takes into account the potential bias of the estimator. When the error distribution is unknown, feasible versions of our CIs are valid asymptotically, even when √n-inference is not possible due …