Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

A Semiparametric Model Approach For Financial Bankruptcy Prediction, Maria H. Kim, Paul Yoo

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

In this study, we propose a model that achieves both accurate modeling and sustainable model stability for corporate bankruptcy prediction. This model is to model the given samples accurately as well as to respond adequately to the unknown inputs by employing semiparametric approach where parametric model and nonparametric Neural Networks (NNs) are combined. By exploring the structural relationships within the available sample data, the proposed model is assumed to retain the advantages of both parametric and nonparametric models. The proposed model is compared to pure parametric models such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Logistic Regression (LR), and pure nonparametric …

Understanding Travel Behavior Using Demographic And Socioeconomic Variables As Travel Constraints, Uraiporn Kattiyapornpong

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

Samdahl and Jekubovich (1997) view constraints as a subset of reasons for not engaging in a particular behavior. There is limited empirical research on the role of demographic and socioeconomic variables as travel constraints. This study investigates the relationships between a wide range of short and long trip planning and travel behaviors and sociodemographic constraints comprised of age, income and life cycle.This research uses data generated from a cross-sectional, self-completed survey on travel and tourism which was collected during 2003 and 2004 from 49,105 Australian respondents. This paper utilizes binomial regression to find that age, income and life stage have …

Macroeconomic Risk Factors In Australian Commercial Real Estate, Listed Property Trust And Property Sector Stock Returns, Tracey West, Andrew C. Worthington

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This paper employs a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to consider the effect of macroeconomic factors on Australian property returns over the period 1985 to 2002. Three direct (office, retail and industrial property) and two indirect (listed property trust and property stock) returns are included in the analysis, along with market returns, short, medium and long-term interest rates, expected and unexpected inflation, construction activity and industrial employment and production. In general, the macroeconomic factors examined are found to be significant risk factors in Australian commercial property returns. However, the results also indicate that forecast accuracy in these …

The Soviet Legacy And Leader Cults In Post-Communist Central Asia: The Example Of Turkmenistan, Stephen M. Brown, Konstantin Sheiko

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

[Extract] While a new wave of democratic revolutions was widely expected in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, progress towards democratisation has proven slow. In many parts of the world, including Central Asia, victory in what Francis Fukuyama claimed was the last of history’s battles has proved elusive.2 Perhaps the most striking feature of the politics of Central Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has been the durability of the leader cults that have grown up around Presidents Nasultan Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan, Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan, and Saparmurat Niyazov in Turkmenistan.

Repression, Backfire, And The Theory Of Transformative Events, David Hess, Brian Martin

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Repression sometimes can lead to greater movement mobilization: repressive events that are perceived as unjust have the potential to generate enormous public outrage against those seen as responsible. One result of repression - backfire - can contribute to the understanding of the conditions under which some repressive events may become transformative for social movements. Three case studies that highlight the processes involved in backfire are examined: the 1930 Salt March in India, in particular the beatings at Dharasana, that mobilized popular support for independence; the 1991 massacre in Dili, East Timor, which stimulated a massive expansion in international support for …

Down The Pipeline? Are Women Reaching Senior Positions In Law And Accounting Firms?, Glenda Strachan, Mary Barrett

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

Legislation in Australia since the 1980s has been designed to promote equal employment opportunity for women and thus remove barriers to women reaching senior and managerial positions in organisations. This paper examines the position of professional women in legal and accounting firms. The majority of graduates in these professions are women but, using information submitted to the Equal Opportunity for Women in the Workforce Agency, organisational statistics show little change in the numbers and proportion of women reaching partnership positions.

Public Perception Of Desalinated Versus Recycled Water In Australia, Sara Dolnicar, A. I. Schäfer

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

Water resources are limited in both quantity and quality. In the continuum of the global water cycle, an interesting debate emerges regarding the acceptance and suitability of water recycling. The motivation for water recycling is mostly the realization that human water consumption has increased beyond sustainable levels, resulting in extended periods of ‘drought’, depletion of environmental flows in natural water systems and the decrease in healthy levels in drinking water reservoirs, including groundwater systems. However, the public often vehemently reject water recycling activities and as a result recycled water is available in countries with severe water restrictions, but clients for …

A Multi-Dimensional Ranking Of Australian Economics Departments, Joan R. Rodgers, A. Valadkhani

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This study uses cluster analysis to classify Australian economics departments into groups that have similar quantities of research output, measured by two publication counts, and similar quality of research output, measured by a citation count. Three groups of departments are identified and factor analysis is used to rank the groups. Whether research output is measured in total or on a per staff basis, Melbourne is in the group that ranks first, the remaining members of the ‘group of eight’ are in one or other of the top two groups, and at least 15 other departments are in the third-ranked group.

Whether The Weather: A Comprehensive Assessment Of Climate Effects In The Australian Stock Market, A. C. Worthington

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

The paper examines the impact of weather-related moods and feelings on the Australian stock market over the period 1958 to 2005. Eleven daily weather elements (precipitation, evaporation, relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature, average daytime temperature, hours of bright sunshine, and the speed and direction of the maximum wind gust and the average daytime wind) are included in the analysis, along with daily nominal and real market returns. Non-parametric correlation analysis and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are employed, supplying strong evidence of sustained inertia and overreaction in market returns, and non-normally distributed, highly interrelated, but stationary, weather conditions. But …

Gold Investment As An Inflationary Hedge: Cointegration Evidence With Allowance For Endogenous Structural Breaks, A. C. Worthington, Mosayeb Pahlavani

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This note tests for the presence of a stable long-run relationship between the monthly price of gold and inflation in the United States from 1945 to 2006 and from 1973 to 2006. Since both the price of gold and the consumer price index have been subject to structural change over time, a novel unit root testing procedure is employed which allows for the timing of significant breaks to be estimated, rather than assumed exogenous. After taking these endogenously determined structural breaks into account, a modified cointegration approach provides strong evidence of a cointegrating relationship between gold and inflation in both …

Stochastic Price Modelling Of High Volatility, Mean-Reverting, Spike-Prone Commodities: The Australian Wholesale Electricity Market, H. Higgs, A. C. Worthington

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regimeswitching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in …

The Project Of Intellectual Capital Disclosure: Researching The Research, Indra Abeysekera

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This paper examines a number of key issues relating to intellectual capital (IC) disclosure by addressing some of the strengths, weaknesses and gaps of the extant research. The paper begins by examining the definitions of intellectual capital and intellectual capital disclosure currently in use. Methodological issues are examined in relation to the use of source documents, coding frameworks, and research methods. Both positivist and critical theoretical perspectives used to provide a theoretical underpinning of IC disclosure analysis are reviewed. The paper concludes by arguing for the importance of addressing these issues in order to improve the credibility of IC disclosure, …

Sources Of Price Discovery In The Australian Dollar Currency Market, Alex Frino, Elvis Jarnecic, Andrew S. Tan, Maxwell Stevenson

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This paper examines the source of price discovery in the Australian Dollar currency market. The time-varying relationship between changes in quotes posted by cash market dealers and changes in currency futures quotes is estimated. The cash market quotations identifY the eleven dealers posting the quotes, as well as geographical location of the dealers (Australia or overseas). Reported results show that price discovery originates in the cash market in any trading period. Amongst CUlTency dealers, the results imply that local desks are price leaders during Australian trading hours. Though some foreign desks do contribute to price discovery during the European and …

Debt As A Source Of Financial Stress In Australian Households, A. C. Worthington

Faculty of Commerce - Papers (Archive)

This paper examines the role of demographic, socioeconomic and debt portfolio characteristics as contributors to financial stress in Australian households. The data is drawn from the most-recent Household Expenditure Survey and relates to 3,268 probability-weighted households. Financial stress is defined, amongst other things, in terms of financial reasons for being unable to have a holiday, have meals with family and friends, engage in hobbies and other leisure activities and general money management. Characteristics examined included family structure and composition, source and level of household income, age, sex and marital status, ethnic background, housing value, debt repayment of various types and …

Electricity: The Global Impact Of Power Reforms, Sharon Beder

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Dozens of governments have embarked on the pathway to electricity deregulation and privatisation since the mid-1990s. It has become the accepted wisdom amongst governments and opinion leaders despite the consequent price rises and disasters that have followed in its wake: the series of blackouts that have been experienced from Buenos Aires to Auckland; the government bailouts of electricity companies that have been necessary in California and Britain; the need for electricity rationing in Brazil; and the fact that it has become too expensive for millions of people from India to South Africa.

Power Play: The Japanese Situation, Sharon Beder

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

The Japanese electricity industry is currently being gradually deregulated in the hopes that high electricity prices can be reduced. At the same time the government is keen to encourage more use of nuclear power. It is aiming to reuse nuclear fuel in order to close the nuclear fuel cycle and thereby reduce Japan’s reliance on imports to fuel electricity generation.1 However deregulation in other parts of the world has not brought prices down, nor has it been conducive to investment in nuclear power. More importantly, the competitive pressures encouraged by deregulation do not encourage reliability and safety, issues which are …

The Borders Within: Mobility And Enclosure In The Riau Islands, M Ford, Lenore T. Lyons

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

The border studies literature makes a strong case against claims for unfettered transnationalism and ‘borderlessness’ in our ‘globalizing world’. However, its focus on movement across borders means that it fails to address bordering practices that occur within the nation state as a result of transnational activity. In this paper we extend Cunningham and Heyman’s concepts ‘enclosure’ and ‘mobility’ to confront the different layers of bordering (both physical and non-physical) that have occurred in Indonesia’s Riau Islands since they became part of the Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore Growth Triangle (IMS-GT).

The Case Of Nikko Jiken: Occupation, Reform, Power And Conflict, Christine M. De Matos

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

This paper explores a labour dispute in Occupied Japan in Hiroshima during the so-called 'reverse course', and the role of Australia occupation soldiers in the events.

Quality Education For All: State Aid Is Still The Issue, Anthony Ashbolt

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

The fundamental measure of education in all spheres is its contribution to a democratic society. To ensure that the Australian education system creates what Benjamin Barber calls ‘an aristocracy of everyone', we need grand spending plans. We also need to embark on a mission to rescue the public education system, which has been sidelined during our years of transferring funds to private schools. The public realm and the importance of education within it was a critical foundation stone of the fledgling Australian state. The same is also true of the USA, where even someone with residual monarchist tendencies like John …

Wollongong The Brave, Anthony Ashbolt

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Two months ago, Illawarra ABC Radio presenter Peter Hand was stood down for alleged bias after a complaint from a Liberal Senator. Anthony Ashbolt examines this extraordinary case of ABC capitulation to Government pressure 'Farewell Aunty Jack' may have been a signal of things to come. That bitter-sweet conclusion to an ABC show that placed Wollongong on the television map in the 1970s, captured a sense that the certainties of the past were fading away and a brave new world was soon to commence. More than 30 years later, Wollongong the Brave has become a little known frontline in the …

Labor’S Education Policy Buried By An Untrue Tale, Anthony Ashbolt

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

There is a perplexing myth pervading journalistic commentary and even Labor party thinking. The persistence and predominance of this myth not only illustrates the power that the media wield and the ignorance they fuel but also shows how a certain mode of thought, including key terms and phrases, saturates public discussion.

From Underground Cult To Public Policy For Citizens: Democratizing An Open Source Artifact At A Policy Level In South Korea, Kwang-Suk Lee

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Purpose - This study explores the feasible use of free and open source software (FOSS) at a policy level in South Korea, which is reacting against being locked into only one technology company, Microsoft.

Methodology/Approach - Based on participatory democratic theory, this paper suggests that the normative role of the state is as a public mediator in the development of an IT infrastructure encouraging greater freedom of choice and the establishment of an electronic environment — such as the community-based use of software technology — for citizens to use easily and freely.

Findings - South Korean policymakers have explored FOSS …

"An Introduction", Guy R. Davidson

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

This issue presents a forum on Australian Social Attitudes: The First Report, a publication that presents the expressed opinions of 4300 Australian adults on a range of issues from family, work, politics, identity and nation, economics and globalization, media, and crime.

Book Review - Theresa Coletti: Mary Magdalene And The Drama Of Saints: Theater, Gender, And Religion In Late Medieval England, Louise D'Arcens

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Theresa Coletti’s Mary Magdalene and the Drama of Saints is a persuasively argued and rigorously researched study that examines the late medieval English career of medieval Christianity’s “other Mary.” Coletti argues for the significance of the figure of Mary Magdalene within traditions of medieval insular piety dating back to Bede, and more specifically within vernacular East Anglian culture of the fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries. Taking as her main focus the early sixteenthcentury Digby saint play Mary Magdalene, Coletti succeeds in demonstrating the many striking ways in which “late medieval East Anglia’s feminine religious culture and commitment to sacred drama …

From Cobra Grubs To Dragons: Negotiating The Politics Of Representation In Cultural Research, Tanja Dreher

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

From Cobra Grubs to Dragons' was the suggested title for a cultural tour of the Fairfield area in Sydney developed by group of people through a partnership between the Centre for Cultural Research. The researchers involved in the project felt that this title was an evocative description of the tour which guides participants in visiting numerous sites illustrating Fairfield's cultural diversity.

What Is The Solution? Moving Cultural Diversity To The Centre Of Journalism Debates, Tanja Dreher

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Like Ghassan Nakhoul, I want to look at the recent open season on the Lebanese community in the Sydney press, following the fatal shootings at Greenacre in October. The news coverage of these events provides us with a good opportunity to assess the impact of considerable public debate and research about reporting cultural diversity that took place in the second half of 2001, in the aftermath of the attack on the World Trade Centre in new York.

Authenticating Electronic Editions, Phillip Berrie, Paul Eggert, Chris Tiffin, Graham Barwell

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

A book is generally seen as a trustworthy carrier of text because, once printed, text cannot be changed without leaving obvious physical evidence. This stability is accompanied by a corresponding inflexibility. Apart from handwritten marginal annotation, there is little augmentation or manipulation available to the user of a printed text. Electronic texts are far more malleable. They can be modified with great ease and speed. This modification may be careful and deliberate (e.g., editing, adding markup for a new scholarly purpose), it may be whimsical or mendacious (e.g., forgery), or it may be accidental (e.g., mistakes made while editing, or …

Post-Communist Russia And Anti-Americanism: Has The West Lost Russian Public Opinion?, Stephen M. Brown

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

Post-Communist Russia’s place in the international system has constituted a matter of intense academic interest since the end of the Cold War. In 2006, the relationship between the West and Russia cooled markedly in response to changing political alliances among the successor states of the former Soviet Union and Russia’s alleged use of its oil and gas resources for political purposes. Richard Pipes has warned that the West should not trust Russia because both its political elites and public opinion are hostile to Western values. This paper will argue that public opinion in Russia has been, and remains, mostly favourable …

Tactics Against Sexual Harassment: The Role Of Backfire, Gregory Scott, Brian Martin

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

To oppose sexual harassment, it is useful to understand tactics commonly used by perpetrators. A useful approach to tactics is through the concept of backfire: if an action is perceived as unjust and information about it is communicated to receptive audiences, it has the capacity to cause outrage and consequently backfire on the perpetrator. Perpetrators regularly use five types of tactics to inhibit outrage: (1) cover-up of the action; (2) devaluation of the target; (3) reinterpretation of the events; (4) use of official channels to give the appearance of justice; and (5) intimidation and bribery of targets, witnesses and others. …

The 'New' Middle Class In India: A Re-Assessment, Timothy J. Scrase

Faculty of Arts - Papers (Archive)

[extract] This paper seeks to go some way towards unravelling the impact of neo-liberal policies on classbased cultures in India. Specifically, it focuses on the experiences and worldviews of the middle classes, the class group or fraction said to have expanded greatly in recent times and to have been the main beneficiaries of the neo-liberal reforms of the Indian economy instigated in the early 1990s. In this paper, we explore two dimensions of these changes: work and discourses of efficiency; and the impact of these reforms on gender and class relations.