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2014

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Institution
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Articles 7291 - 7320 of 25673

Full-Text Articles in Social and Behavioral Sciences

The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons, And Future Outlook, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

The Asian Currency Crisis: Origins, Lessons, And Future Outlook, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

What started in the summer of 1997 as a regional economic and financial crisis in East and Southeast Asia had developed into a global financial crisis within the span of a year. This crisis followed the crisis in the European Monetary System in 1992-3 and the Mexican peso crisis in 1994-5. However, unlike the previous two crises, the scale and depth of the Asian crisis surprised everyone. Obvious reason for this is East and Southeast Asia's track record of economic success. Since the 1960s, no other group of countries in the world has produced more rapid economic growth or such …

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(Wp 2013-03) War And The Fiscal Capacity Of The State, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed Jul 2014

(Wp 2013-03) War And The Fiscal Capacity Of The State, Abdur Chowdhury, Syed M. Murshed

Abdur R. Chowdhury

We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. This in contrast to the European experience from the Renaissance to the 20th century, where it is believed that war and state-building were inseparable, enhancing the fiscal capacity of the state; in turn enlarging the scope and magnitude of government expenditure. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with the possibility of violent contestation over a rent or prize, typically in the form of natural resource revenues. …

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Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Does Exchange Rate Variability Depress Trade Flows ? Evidence From Error Correction Models, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of the G-7 countries in the context of a multivariate error-correction model. The error-correction models do not show any sign of parameter instability. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on the volume of exports in each of the G-7 countries. Assuming market participants are risk averse, these results imply that exchange rate uncertainty causes them to reduce their activities, change prices, or shift sources of demand and supply in order to minimize their exposure to the effects of exchange rate …

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A Global Lottery And A Global Premium Bond, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

A Global Lottery And A Global Premium Bond, Tony Addison, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

Proposals are evaluated, from both an economic and an ethical viewpoint, for development funding through a global lottery, along with a complement to this: a global premium bond (a loan instrument in which the interest takes the form of a lottery prize, the capital being repayable on request, so that it has the characteristics of a savings product, which makes it potentially attractive to ethical investors). The chapter starts by looking at how a global lottery might work, evaluating the issue by discussing lottery operators and their regulation, the market for lotteries, competition between the global lottery and national lotteries, …

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Review Of Money, History, And International Finance: Essays In Honor Of Anna J. Schwartz By Michael D. Bordo, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Review Of Money, History, And International Finance: Essays In Honor Of Anna J. Schwartz By Michael D. Bordo, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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(Wp 2011-09) The Development Effects Of Natural Resources: A Geographical Dimension, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

(Wp 2011-09) The Development Effects Of Natural Resources: A Geographical Dimension, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

Despite the recent growth resurgence, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the poorest region in the world. At the same time, it is a region that heavily relies on natural resources. In this paper we investigate the extent to which the second fact helps explain the first one. The distinctive feature of our study is that we take a geographical perspective and allow the effect of natural resources to differ across regions of the world. Our findings suggest that (i) the effect of natural resource intensity on per-capita income is positive and significant in general, but almost negligible and possibly negative in …

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External Debt, Growth And The Hipc Initiative: Is The Country Choice Too Narrow?, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

External Debt, Growth And The Hipc Initiative: Is The Country Choice Too Narrow?, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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(Wp 2010-01) The Role Of Primary Commodities In Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa Versus Rest Of The World, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

(Wp 2010-01) The Role Of Primary Commodities In Economic Development: Sub-Saharan Africa Versus Rest Of The World, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

We study the nexus between natural resources and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and find that SSA is indeed special: resources dependence retards growth in SSA, but not elsewhere. The natural resources curse is thus specific to SSA. We then show that this specificity does not depend on the type of primary commodities on which SSA specializes. Instead, the SSA specificity appears to arise from the interaction between institutions and natural resources.

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The Behavior Of Closed-End Country Fund Prices In The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

The Behavior Of Closed-End Country Fund Prices In The Asian Nies, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper tests the impact of international investment restrictions on closed-end country funds in four Asian countries - Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. The results show that the relationship between the premiums or discounts on closed-end country funds and announcements of changes in investment restrictions is sensitive to how individual countries respond to foreign innovations. A strong relationship exists in countries with large restrictions on investment - Korea and Taiwan. However, the relationship seems to break down in countries where there are virtually no restrictions on investment - Hong Kong and Singapore.

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Interest Rate Variability And Manufacturing Industry Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis, Suzette M. Lebrasseur-Serwin, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Interest Rate Variability And Manufacturing Industry Cash Flow: An Empirical Analysis, Suzette M. Lebrasseur-Serwin, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

To examine the impact of floating rate loans and interest rate volatility on aggregate cash flow, quarterly data covering the period 1974 to 1990 for 14 two-digit Standard Industrial Classification manufacturing industries were analyzed. The results indicate that changes in the short-term interest rate and-or interest rate volatility have a significantly negative impact on the cash flow of a total of 11 of the 14 firms considered. Although the inverse relationship between corporate cash flow and interest rate is worth mentioning, the heterogeneity of this relationship across industries, however, is more interesting. The magnitude of the decline in cash flow …

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Political Surfing Over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing In India, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Political Surfing Over Economic Waves: Parliamentary Election Timing In India, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper develops a political-economic interaction model for India for the 1960-91 sample period. India presents an ideal case for testing the political business cycle theory in the context of a parliamentary democracy with endogenous election timing. Using a mixed qualitative and continuous variable simultaneous equation estimation procedure, the paper considers the two-way interaction that results from the control by the cabinet over election timing. Several conclusions can be derived from this study. First, the results indicate the presence of business cycle-electoral interaction in India. Second, there is strong support for the surfing hypothesis, implying that the Indian cabinet tends …

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Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy And Aggregate Economic Activity: Some Further Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy And Aggregate Economic Activity: Some Further Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

The paper examines the trend in private savings in Morocco in the presence of financial sector development by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework. Specifically, the hypothesis that there is stable relationship between the level of private savings and its determinants including a measure of financial reform is investigated. The statistical results provide evidence in favor of a long-run relationship between private savings and most of its determinants. More importantly, the financial reform index, as measured by financial depth, is found to have a positive impact on the level of private savings. This indicates that the financial reform program …

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(Wp 2010-06) How Do Structural And Policy Factors Affect A Country’S Probability To Achieve The Most (Or The Least) Favorable Growth Path?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

(Wp 2010-06) How Do Structural And Policy Factors Affect A Country’S Probability To Achieve The Most (Or The Least) Favorable Growth Path?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country’s probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their …

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The Infant Mortality-Fertility Debate: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

The Infant Mortality-Fertility Debate: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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Mean Reverting Behavior Of Stock Returns: Evidence From A Panel Of Asian And Pacific Basin Countries, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Mean Reverting Behavior Of Stock Returns: Evidence From A Panel Of Asian And Pacific Basin Countries, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This study uses the seemingly-unrelated regression method in panel data to test for the mean-reversion behavior in stock returns in eight Asian and Pacific Basin markets: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. The empirical evidence suggests that an investor cannot use the information contained in stock performances in precious periods to consistently earn abnormal profits. A fundamental implication of the efficient market theory is that successive security returns are serially independent. Hence the empirical evidence is consistent with the spirit of the efficiency market theory. This would suggest a hands-off approach for the policy-makers with regard …

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Substitution Between Money And Near Monies In Switzerland, Subhash C. Sharma, Magda Kandil, Abdur Chowdhury, Tammy Parker Jul 2014

Substitution Between Money And Near Monies In Switzerland, Subhash C. Sharma, Magda Kandil, Abdur Chowdhury, Tammy Parker

Abdur R. Chowdhury

This paper investigates the substitutability between money and near-money assets during the period 1976 to 1996 in Switzerland. Financial developments have made a variety of instruments available to store wealth and conduct economic transactions. These developments have generated a "near money" component in households' and businesses' portfolio balances. It is important to evaluate the effect of "near-money" on money demand and the effectiveness of monetary policy. Towards this goal, five monetary assets: currency and demand deposits at commercial banks, demand deposits with the postal system, deposits on transaction accounts with banks, savings deposits and time deposits are considered. We evaluate …

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Review Of The Awakening Of The Soviet Union By Geoffrey Hosking, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Review Of The Awakening Of The Soviet Union By Geoffrey Hosking, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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Futures Market Efficiency: Evidence From Cointegration Tests, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Futures Market Efficiency: Evidence From Cointegration Tests, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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Four Scenarios Of Development And The Role Of Economic Policy, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Four Scenarios Of Development And The Role Of Economic Policy, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

We ask which economic policies can help a country create the most favourable conditions for development. We observe that the dynamics of several development indicators can be grouped into four clusters, each cluster corresponding to a different combination of growth and changes in inequality. Based on this observation, we define four different development scenarios and use limited dependent variable regressions to study how structural and policy factors affect a country's probability to achieve the most (or the least) favourable of these scenarios. Our results point to a comforting picture: through the choice of appropriate policies countries can effectively increase their …

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(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

(Wp 2011-04) Inflation And Inflation-Uncertainty In India: The Policy Implications Of The Relationship, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

Inflation and its related uncertainty can impose costs on real economic output in any economy. This paper analyzes the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in India. Initial estimates show the inflation rate to be a stationary process. The maximum likelihood estimates from the GARCH model reveal strong support for the presence of a positive relationship between the level of inflation and its uncertainty. The Granger causality results indicate a feedback between inflation and uncertainty. With Granger causality running both ways, the Friedman-Ball and Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses hold simultaneously in India. It provides strong support to the notion of an opportunistic …

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Review Of The Macroeconomics Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecie By Roger E. A. Farmer, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Review Of The Macroeconomics Of Self-Fulfilling Prophecie By Roger E. A. Farmer, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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A Note On Dominant Influence Of Fiscal Actions, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

A Note On Dominant Influence Of Fiscal Actions, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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Monetary And Fiscal Policy As A Stabilization Tool: The Case Of Korea And Turkey, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Monetary And Fiscal Policy As A Stabilization Tool: The Case Of Korea And Turkey, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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Margin Requirement And Stock Market Volatility In Thailand, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Margin Requirement And Stock Market Volatility In Thailand, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

The use of margin requirements as a potential policy tool for controlling sudden stock price changes and market volatility has attracted considerable attention in the developed stock markets. However, no consensus has emerged regarding the significance of the impact of changes in margin requirement of the stock market. The existing analyses are extended to test the impact of changes in margin requirements on stock prices in an emerging stock market. Using recent data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand, margin requirements are demonstrated to have an important impact on the behaviour of stock prices. Increases (decreases) in margin requirements usually …

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Banking Reform In Russia: Winds Of Change?, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Banking Reform In Russia: Winds Of Change?, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

Only a successful implementation of an overall reform program will enable Russian banks to provide financial intermediation and assist in the country's development from a nascent market economy to a mature financial system. The chances for reform are better now than at any time during the last decade. Favorable political and economic conditions and a change in attitude among bank management have created an unusual window of opportunity. The paper analyzes the past performance of the Russian banking industry, evaluates the reform agenda of the monetary authority, and argues for an overall reform program in order to seize the available …

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Velocity And The Variability Of Money Growth: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Velocity And The Variability Of Money Growth: Some International Evidence, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

Using data from four countries, the paper tests Friedman's hypothesis that the volatility of money growth causes velocity to change. Despite a wide variety of patterns in the movements of velocity in these countries, support is evident for the hypothesis.

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(Wp 2011-06) Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence?, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

(Wp 2011-06) Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond To Consumer Confidence?, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

During the 2007-9 Great Recession, the risk premium associated with U.S. stocks sharply increased and has since remained significantly higher compared to its range during the last 40 years. The increase in the equity risk premium has led many analysts to believe that risk aversion among stock investors has moved to a permanently higher range in recent years. Our empirical findings show that the recent increase in the equity risk premium primarily reflects a temporary collapse in consumer confidence. As long as the consumer confidence in the sustainability of economic recovery remains low, today's elevated risk premium would persist. Once …

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Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Does Financial Openness Promote Economic Integration?, Fabrizio Carmignani, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

We estimate the effect of financial openness on economic integration for two clusters of countries: the formerly planned economies of Eastern Europe and central Asia (emerging market economies) and some western advanced economies. We focus on two dimensions of economic integration: convergence of per-capita incomes across countries and trade integration. We employ both single equation estimation and system estimation to account for endogenous links between trade integration and income convergence. Results show that in the cluster of emerging market economies, financial openness is a powerful instrument of economic integration. In the group of advanced economies, financial openness effectively facilitates income …

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Fiscal Dependence On Trade Tax And The Level Of Economic Development, Abdur Chowdhury Jul 2014

Fiscal Dependence On Trade Tax And The Level Of Economic Development, Abdur Chowdhury

Abdur R. Chowdhury

No abstract provided.

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